The Daily Grind: Thin Thursday Overlay

by
July 5, 2018

Parsimony is the sign of a talented writer – or so my economics adviser insisted. In this case, parsimony is the sign of a rushed writer. Rapid fire time.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

A day after losing his season-long perch atop the leaderboard, mmddyyyy returned to reclaim his mantle. He was the only performer to crack the 100 point plateau – a total usually insufficient to place. Andrew Suarez and Yasmani Grandal did the heaviest lifting. Congrats and Leaderboard.

The overlays have been pretty massive in recent contests. Yesterday a $2 entry had an expected value of $3.58 – and you can enter twice. You’re missing out if you’re not joining us. Plus it’s good wholesome fun! Even if you’re a solidly below average DFS player, you can’t help but make some money under these conditions. Anyway, 52-entries on FantasyDraft tonight for our usual no rake GPP.

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2. Weather Reports

Detroit has a sizable chance for storms – about 50 percent running from 5:00pm through the late night hours. Monitor accordingly.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: All eight games will be played this evening. Justin Verlander ($25,400) is the runaway headliner in what looks like a must-play matchup against the White Sox. The other “ace” is Johnny Cueto ($22,900). Although he pitched well earlier this season, memories of 2017 and a long stint on the disabled list are leading away from using him. He’s opposed by the Cardinals.

Jaime Barria ($16,000) at Marco Gonzalez ($14,700) is an obvious place to wager tonight. Both pitchers have outperformed their current price on a number of occasions. However, the Angels and Mariners have above average offenses.

Jeremy Hellickson ($15,400) will presumably make a short start – five or six innings – against the lowly Marlins. He’s succeeding this year by throwing more breaking balls. His performance breaks down around the third time through the order.

Shelby Miller ($12,800) has returned from the disabled list. More importantly, he retained the velocity increase he showed in early-2017. With a harder fastball, he could be an above average pitcher. And he’ll face the strikeout prone Padres.

Luke Weaver ($15,300) gets a modest bump from facing the Giants. They were just shutout at Coors Field. Tonight they play at pitcher friendly AT&T Park. I’d also consider Max Fried ($14,700) at Miller Park. His volatile profile includes the potential for a 20 point evening.

Stack Targets: Andrew Cashner, Eric Lauer, Aaron Slegers, Yovani Gallardo, Miller, Jhoulys Chacin, Pablo Lopez, Fried, Carlos Rodon

No shortage of exploits tonight. I like Rodon, just not against the Astros.

4. SaberSim Says…

Verlander, Cueto, Miller, Matt Boyd, and Weaver are the preferred arms tonight. Values include Miller, Verlander, and Boyd. Hmm… You’ll want Mike Trout (injured hand), Bryce Harper, Eddie Rosario, Trea Turner, and Nelson Cruz as blue chip bats this evening. Bargain hunters may find Ryan Rua, Tim Beckham, Matt Adams, or Justin Bour.





 

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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Skardatzke
7 years ago

Hi Brad. I’ve recently started using P/IP to help uncover hidden gem pitchers in DFS. While that addresses one side of the equation, I haven’t been able to find a “pitches seen per inning” team stat for opposing offenses. Do you know if a stat like this exists anywhere, and if so, could you direct me where?

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