The Daily Grind: The Ceiling And The Value

Don’t Panic 2.0.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. The Way…

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Cubbieblues rocked the Invitational with Pat Corbin, George Springer, Gregory Polanco, and Howie Kendrick. Congrats and Leaderboard.

It’s a typical Friday night brawl on FantasyDraft. Fourteen games, $2 entries, no rake. See ya there.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Light rain is possible in Baltimore.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Justin Verlander tops the price list, and yeah, Justin Verlander should definitely top the price list. For a mere $21,500, you get to rack up double-digit strikeouts and a likely win against the Rangers. This is easily a $24,000 play. Now we just need to find sufficient bargains to make the rest of the roster work.

Tyler Glasnow ($20,400) has outperformed Verlander on a per-game basis. He’s visiting Yankee Stadium, a notably homer-happy venue. Of the four “aces” on the bump tonight, Glasnow definitely faces the roughest conditions. Not only must he tame a potent opponent, he’s also paired against Domingo German ($18,600). He’s steamrolled some notably bad offenses (and the Twins). The Rays will be his first true test.

I mean, who doesn’t want this fiery hot version of Luis Castillo at Oracle Park? For just $20,300, you too can cash in on Castillo dismantling a comically terrible opponent.

For some reason, I look at the Giants offense and laugh. The Marlins offense is worse, and yet I have a greater measure of respect for it. Weird. Anyway, Miami isn’t just a bad-hitting team, they’re the very worst in the league. They strike out at in one-quarter of their plate appearances too. Zack Wheeler is a massive bargain at $18,700. Why are so many stud pitchers underpriced?

I feel like it almost doesn’t make sense to consider the others. There’s so much value and ceiling in the top five arms. Zack Greinke ($18,500) and Julio Teheran ($16,200) are reasonably priced. Greinke could be a contrarian alternative to Wheeler or German. The Braves obviously make for a challenging pairing. Teheran’s slider-heavy approach has yielded a strikeout per inning.

If you look past Eduardo Rodriguez’s earliest starts, he’s actually having a solid season. A $17,000 feels a tad high against a volatile Mariners offense. I envisage a very wide range of plausible outcomes.

Jake Odorizzi ($16,700) has been shockingly effective this season. The Tigers don’t hit for power. Or average. Or OBP. Yep, this works as a mid-tier play.

Deep in the bargain bin, you’ll find Dylan Covey for $12,100. The Blue Jays stack figures to be very popular tonight – it’s both affordable and teed up to provide snazzy production. There is, however, a scenario in which Covey shuts down Toronto. He’s shifted his pitch usage to emphasize his hard cutter over his slider. His velocity is also up for a second consecutive season. And let us not forget, the 2018 version of Covey contributed seven quality starts in 21 games. It’s not like Toronto is a top offense. Consider a contrarian Covey play in deep GPPs.

Favorite Plays: Verlander, Wheeler, Castillo, Covey

I’m too clever for my own good sometimes. And after making Wade Miley work yesterday, I’m prepared to double down with Covey.

Stack Targets: Homer Bailey, Dan Straily, Covey, Tyson Ross, Cody Anderson, Eric Lauer, Trevor Cahill, Anibal Sanchez, Lance Lynn

4. SaberSim Says…

Verlander, Wheeler, Castillo, Odorizzi, and Glasnow top the charts per the machine. The best values are Verlander, Wheeler, Odorizzi, Rodriguez, and German Marquez. No surprises here besides a willingness to use a good pitcher at Coors Field.

Mike Trout, Trevor Story, Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Nolan Arenado have that chalky taste. I’d maybe wait on Ohtani. Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Renato Nunez, and Jason Kipnis are the value plays.

5. The Way…

The way baseball is meant to be played.

Isn’t it nice when the wind blows out?

Remember this asian Bryce Harper clone?