The Daily Grind: The All Star Break Cometh

I dreamed I went on a baseball trip with my college team, and then I nearly broke an auto mechanic’s computer by dropping it on the ground. It was using Windows XP. I only noticed that detail after picking it up from the ground. Baseball?

AGENDA

1. The All Star Break
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. The All Star Break

The All Star Break is coming. It’s a great time to lean back and take stock of your personal performance for the season. Me, I’ve done rather terribly, but I still have over two months to recover.

Yesterday, we discussed in the comments whether or not it still makes sense to stack. In my experience this year, only the most blatantly obvious (and heinously overowned) stacks are producing with any reliability. On a given night, most production seems to come off the bat of one or two players per offense. Holding the stack almost ensures a zero. Not holding a stack introduces too much volatility for consistent wins (i.e. lots of zeroes). A non-stack approach is designed to take short term losses in exchange for the occasional big win (I’m still waiting). I’ll use this time off to further hone my process and approach.

There will be no Grind this upcoming Sunday or Friday in deference to The Break.

2. Weather Reports

Cleveland is at risk with a roughly 60 percent chance for storms most of the afternoon and night. Keep an eye on it.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Thirteen games are late with the Cubs and Phillies playing earlier. Philadelphia is kicking off at 6:35pm. I can only assume the weird start time is for a fireworks night. I’m too lazy to look it up although I could have in the time it took to indicate my laziness.

It’s a star-studded pitching pool headlined by Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Zack Greinke, Carlos Carrasco, Carlos Martinez, and James Paxton. Scherzer is justifiably priced at $12,400. And with any luck, he won’t be highly owned because there are similar talented substitutes at a cheaper price.

Of the six aces, I assume deGrom will have the lowest ownership. Week after week, he’s been priced a good $1,000 to $2,000 above his intrinsic value. He costs $11,000 today while the other four range from $9,200 to $9,700. deGrom should be right in the middle of them. He’s opposed by the Cardinals.

Speaking of the other aces, they all have tolerable matchups. CMart has the most difficult path to a win through deGrom and a challenging Mets offense. To be clear, Martinez is better than deGrom. Greinke probably has it easiest – assuming they don’t let Fernando Rodney near the mound.

If you don’t want an ace, I wouldn’t go too cheaply. Maybe you could roll the dice on a quality start from $6,000 German Marquez. That’s an awful lot of pressure since he really needs to post at least 30 points to keep your roster relevant. The upside is something like 46 points (six innings, six strikeouts, no runs, and a win). My personal projection has him at 5.2 innings, four strikeouts, four runs, no decision (17 points).

Aaron Sanchez and Charlie Morton are back from the disabled list. They oppose one another. Expect short outings. Dan Straily, Jordan Montgomery, and Cole Hamels are all decent.

Stack Targets: Derek Holland, Felix Jorge, Marquez, Junior Guerra, Jordan Zimmermann, Tim Adleman, R.A. Dickey, Ricky Nolasco, Matt Moore, Kevin Gausman, Jake Odorizzi

4. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, deGrom, Paxton, Carrasco, and Drew Pomeranz are the top rated pitchers. Pom ain’t wonderful. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper, Mark Reynolds, and Manny Machado are the most beloved hitters. The biggest values include Jason Kipnis, Machado, David Peralta, and Adam Jones.

5. The Daily Grind Invitational

Grbactacular got a little something from everybody including 45 points from Chris Sale and 28.1 points from Michael Brantley. Congrats and such and leaderboard.

We’re on FanDuel for the final Invitational of the “first half.”