The Daily Grind: Split-Action

by
August 22, 2018

~Stream, stream, stream. Streeeeeeeeam.~ It’s back: Streaming Wars featuring a guy who should be owned in all leagues.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. A Debut

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Cubbieblues stole the show with a heroic play of Billy McKinney.  His 25 points combined with 30 from David Peralta and 34.5 from Blake Snell accounted for most of the production. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’re on FantasyDraft as per the usual.

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2. Weather Reports

Looks pretty clear to me.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: The four game afternoon slate doesn’t include the extra early Blue Jays-Orioles game. Charlie Morton ($19,600) is the prize pitcher, and he’s exceptionally well priced. He’s opposed by Marco Gonzales ($12,800) who, again, is very affordable. It’s almost guaranteed that 90 percent of entrants will use one of these arms. Neither offense is a pushover. The Astros are back to full strength, although we’ve yet to see much from Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, or George Springer since returning from injury.

The other heavily popular game features Kyle Gibson ($18,000) at Carlos Rodon ($17,700). I definitely prefer the Gibson side of the equation against an Abreu-less White Sox offense. That’s a lot of low OBP bats and easy strikeouts. Rodon keeps firing six to eight inning outings which is very valuable. There are some red flags in his peripherals, but that’s not enough to worry me against a tepid Twins offense.

Freddy Peralta ($14,800) is the other guy I’d consider (SaberSim loves him, I think he’s just fine). Edwin Jackson ($15,100) is getting good results despite looking completely unchanged.

Stack Targets: Jackson, Mike Minor, Robert Stephenson

Main Slate: Jack Flaherty is visiting Walker Buehler for the overpriced game of the day. They cost $21,200 and $20,600 respectively even though they both average about 18 points a start. Neither offense is anywhere close to below average, and they cancel each other out for the win bonus. They should be priced around $17,000.

Noah Syndergaard ($19,900) is a reasonable value. The Mets host the lowly Giants. This seems like a no brainer. Elsewhere, Stephen Strasburg ($19,800) will come off the disabled list to challenge Zach Eflin ($17,200). Strasburg will probably have a low pitch count – perhaps 80? Eflin should be unrestricted. He was only sent to Triple-A for roster manipulation reasons. It’s been awhile since he’s face a quality opponent.

Clay Buchholz is one of the weirdest stories of the year. At first glance, $19,500 to face the Angels is too much. However, Mike Trout and Justin Upton are both on the disabled list. And the game is at Chase Field – NL rules! That means no Shohei Ohtani either. Buchholz still probably projects to only around 16 points, but at least the matchup feels friendly.

Carlos Carrasco is cheap ($18,700) because he’s opposed by the Red Sox. Honestly, there’s nothing wrong with using him or staying away. Carrasco’s strength is offspeed stuff. His fastball is a below average offering. The Red Sox lineup specializes in grinding out at bats. They could feast on infrequent fastballs or find themselves in frequent 0-2 or 1-2 counts. This makes Carrasco a GPP variance machine.

Jon Gray ($15,300) is always a dangerous play at home. The strikeout prone Padres are a good matchup though. He could post 20 or more points. Or flop.

Other playable names include Lance Lynn in Miami, Jon Lester at Detroit, and Julio Teheran at Trevor Williams. There are a few others who offer value but lack upside.

Stack Targets: Jacob Nix, Odrisamer Despaigne, Casey Kelly, Francisco Liriano

Once upon a time, Kelly was a promising pitching prospect. Now he’s an unestablished 28-year-old with no standout skills.

4. SaberSim Says…

Let’s focus on the main slate. Syndergaard, Strasburg, Gray, Carrasco, and Buehler are the top rated pitchers. That basically jibes with everything I wrote above. Bargains include Trevor Richards, Gray, Lynn, Strasburg, and Thor. Sure.

On the batting side, the Sim likes Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Javier Baez, Bryce Harper, and Trevor Story. Wither Nix. Top values consist of Ronny Rodriguez, Brandon Lowe (SaberSim loves him), Joc Pederson, Anthony Rendon, and Jeff McNeil.

5. A Debut

This is some men’s league softball shit.

Here, you can see why everybody is freaking out. Michael Kopech does need to refine his command. I say we treat him like Jon Gray for now.





 

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