The Daily Grind: Snap It
We’ve seen this clip before…
AGENDA
- TDG Invitational
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- SaberSim Says…
- You’re Not Excused
1.The Daily Grind Invitational
A solo share of Dan Vogelbach was the big differentiator for pyelsik last Friday. The Verlander-deGrom combo delivered everything that was promised and more. Congrats and Leaderboard.
We have an 11-game slate tonight on FantasyDraft.
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2. Weather Reports
There’s some risk for “light rain” in Washington. Since the Rockies are making a rare visit, I think they’ll figure out how to fit this one in.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Gerrit Cole ($23,700) sits atop the price list this evening. He sure is expensive for a pairing against an occasionally potent Athletics offense. Cole is in the midst of a dominant 10 game stretch. The lone blemish – a 13.9 point performance against these same Athletics of Oakland. I’m still using Cole if I can find the budget for him, but I’ll probably prioritize maximizing the value of my bats before worrying about finding space for him.
Mike Clevinger ($23,400) is simply too volatile for this price tag. I feel quite confident about his matchup against the Blue Jays, yet there is far too much opportunity for a mid-teens point total. In my opinion the use case is: 1. I have the money for Cole and 2. I believe Cole will be over-owned.
Robbie Ray ($21,900) should have no issues silencing the Orioles at Chase Field. However, you never really know. I find my Ray usage follows an inverse trend of his recent performances. When he scuffles, his price drops and I use him. When he’s strings together several strong outings – as is currently the case – I hunt better values.
Unlike the others above who are pricey but usable, Eduardo Rodriguez ($21,200) is a fine pitcher who costs at least $3,000 too much. Sure, the Rays are a tad less intimidating against left-handed pitching, but they’re still an above average offense. It’s Jalen Beeks ($15,300) day, but he too is quite pricey.
I’m out on Sonny Gray ($18,400) at the Brewers. Gray has rebounded to become a good mid-tier pitcher. He’s usually well worth an $18,400 investment. Just not against the Brewers. Incidentally, I like Chase Anderson as a bland mid-tier patch versus an indifferent Reds offense.
Continuing a theme, Daniel Ponce de Leon is overpriced at $18,000. If you’ve been following all season, you’ll have noted my continual distrust of Lance Lynn. Ponce de Leon is also a fastball-forward righty. It’s a skill set I’m very slow to fully embrace. On the plus side, he’s visiting pitcher friendly PNC Park. As an additional minus, the Pirates held Poncey to 0.25 points over 3.2 innings last week.
Oh look, CC Sabathia ($17,100) and Martin Perez ($15,900) are overpriced. Before you ride to Perez’s defense regarding his largely solid performance in 2019, you should note he’s only faced three above average offenses in 16 starts. The Yankees should smack some homers.
Trevor Richards ($13,800), Alec Mills ($13,600), Trevor Williams ($12,900) are the Plain Yogurt class of pitcher today. Kind of sour, almost-but-not-quite offensively flavored. Richards has a decent shot at a win in Chicago. Mills is visiting the Giants at Oracle Park. Williams is hosting the Cardinals at PNC Park. Don’t expect 20 point performances, but you could get some 16-pointers from this group.
Favorite Plays: Cole
Stack Targets: Homer Bailey, Ryan Borucki, Marco Gonzales, Erick Fedde, Ivan Nova, Peter Lambert, Aaron Brooks, Adrian Sampson
Bailey isn’t half bad, but the Astros turn most pitchers into stack targets. Fedde, Nova, Lambert, and Sampson are terrible, but they’re priced so damnably cheap that you can definitely squeeze ’em in with an ace and a stout stack.
4. SaberSim Says…
Cole, Ray, Gray, Gonzales, and Clevinger are the top-rated pitchers tonight. I’m a bit surprised to find Gonzales listed here. Sure, the Rangers are great against lefties. They’re not really bad either. Shaun Anderson (not listed by FDraft but also a viable bargain play), Williams, Cole, Gonzales, and Lambert are the preferred values.
On the hitting side, Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Charlie Blackmon, Garrett Cooper, and Christian Yelich are the premo-bats. Bargains include Neil Walker, Yan Gomes Michael Brosseau, Curtis Granderson, and Adam Frazier. I’m not sure Brosseau or Grandy will even play. It does seem The Sim believes in the Marlins tonight.
5. You’re Not Excused
About a week ago, I remarked on Travis d’Arnaud’s excuse me home runs. Not the case here.
I feel like nobody is aware Michael Brantley is having a huge season.
What a beautiful dive about 40 feet short of home plate.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
“Light rain” in Washington is not the forecast I’ve heard. We’re under a flood watch starting this afternoon, with forecasts calling for an average of 1-1.5″ of rain, with more in localized spots. There’s at least a 50/50 chance this game doesn’t happen.
Interesting. I only check one weather source (supplied by darksky.net) and the hourly report says “light rain, 40-50% chance.” They’re wrong just as often as any other weather source.
In any case, there’s a lot of time to continue checking reports throughout the day.
I have tickets to the game, so I am definitely keeping an eye on the forecast and radar starting this afternoon.
yeah the Weather channel hourly forecast isn’t promising
6pm- 40%
7pm- 50%
8pm- 65%
9pm- 75%
10pm- 75%
11pm- 70%
if that is close to accurate, don’t think there’s a shot of it for tonight Especially given the Rockies are here for 4 games.
LOL MLB postponed the game til Wednesday due to the threat of storms. Hasn’t started raining in DC at all.