The Daily Grind: Severino, McCullers, Tomlin, Davis

Agenda

1. Durham Notes
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – McCullers, Tomlin, Khris, Inciarte
6. Factor Grid

1. Durham Notes

I occasionally attend Durham Bulls games. Yesterday, I saw the much anticipated matchup between Matt Moore and, um, Brad Penny. As you would expect of such a pairing, Penny outdueled Moore. The old man fired six innings of two-hit ball before getting torched in the seventh. Junior Guerra was able to limit the damage in non-dominating fashion.

Moore was casting his curve ball – it was easy to pick up from a slightly elevated side angle. That doesn’t mean he was tipping it to the guy in the batters box, but it does explain the inconsistency he showed with the pitch. He did his best when overpowering opponents with a high fastball. He allowed three runs in 6.1 innings. I’m not rushing to the waiver wire when the Rays add him to the roster on September 1. However, he might perform well in a bullpen role.

Aside from the starters. Two players really stood out on the field. As we know, Dayan Viciedo does not get cheated – 17 hitters were merely putting bat-to-ball. Viciedo took massive hacks with plus bat speed. He looked like Wily Mo Pena up there.

I also was impressed with closer Zach Phillips. The lefty threw the hardest 91 mph fastball I’ve seen this year. By comparison, Penny’s 93 mph fastball was the softest looking over-90 pitch. Appearances matter to some degree. He also threw a filthy cutter during warm ups that didn’t show up in game action. His change was solid, but his curve was bad. The Rays put some pressure on him, but he avoided any damage.

2. Daily DFS – Severino

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The lone 1:07 ET game is left out of the afternoon contest. We’re left with a three game slate starting at 4:05 ET. It’s a pitching rich group with Jacob deGrom, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, and Kris Medlen. If you’re playing it straight, you’ll probably want to target Joe Kelly or Ryan Vogelsong. It’s never a bad idea to target a good pitcher in these tiny slates, especially in a GPP.

Late: Lucky us, Corey Kluber was bumped up to this evening. He’s easily the most talented pitcher on the bump tonight. Of course, he’s costly too, and the Angels won’t roll over. Hisashi Iwakuma, Jordan Zimmermann, and even Mike Fiers seem like solid alternatives in the $8,000 and over bin.

There is a glaringly obvious bargain – Luis Severino. The Yankees righty brings everything but long outings. He strikes out a batter per inning while wielding 96 mph heat. He’s walked a few too many batters for comfort in his last two outings. A matchup against the Braves at Turner Field is a major value boost. Count on six or fewer innings.

Stack Targets: Kelly, Vogelsong, Chris Rusin, Colin Rea, Keyvius Sampson, Adam Morgan, Matt Wisler, Jhoulys Chacin, Martin Perez, Felix Doubront, Matt Garza, Mat Latos

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have only 17 options today.

Jose Bautista, Chris Colabello v Buck Farmer
Justin Upton v Adam Morgan
James McCann, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez v Drew Hutchison
Mark Teixeira v Matt Wisler

4. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: I’m not buying Jayson Werth as the 11th best hitter today. I’m not even sure he’s the 111th best hitter (hyperbole). Werth actually is showing signs of life lately. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .293/.383/.512 while batting first or second. He’s a solid play against Tom Koehler. I don’t like him any more or less than other $3,000 FanDuel outfielders like Gregory Polanco, Brett Gardner, or even Carlos Gomez.

Right: SaberSim really likes J.A. Happ. I’m on the bandwagon for today’s game against the Rockies. The game is at PNC Park so we don’t have to worry about hitter friendly park effects. Happ could give us six to seven innings with a decent strikeout rate. The Pirates should mash Rusin. A win looks likely.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – McCullers, Tomlin, Khris, Inciarte

Pitchers to Start: Lance McCullers is easily the top guy to snatch off the wire. However, I’m going to stretch out my neck to explain why I’m using John Lamb in a couple leagues. The lefty has allowed a 6.06 ERA (4.03 FIP, 3.42 xFIP).

He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher. He’ll need to cut his HR/FB down from 15 percent to stick in the majors. The good news is his 11.57 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9. Unpleasant regression is likely with both figures, but perhaps not tomorrow against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s limp offense is a good matchup for Lamb. If you’re in need of strikeouts and can afford to risk your ERA and WHIP, he’s a smart play. I’m using him in H2H leagues where the damage he can do is isolated.

Also consider: Nathan Eovaldi, McCullers, Robbie Ray

Pitchers to Exploit: I’m a Josh Tomlin fan, but there’s no denying his homer prone nature. The Angels kill fly ball pitchers. It’s simply a bad matchup. A couple mediocre guys will make their first major league starts – Philadelphia’s Alec Asher (acquired in the Cole Hamels trade) and Seattle’s Edward James Olmos Edgar Olmos.

Also consider: Alfredo Simon, Mark Buehrle, Jered Weaver, Wade Miley, Danny Duffy, Brad Hand, Alec Asher, Jorge de la Rosa, Edgar Olmos, Ervin Santana, Derek Holland, Miguel Gonzalez

Hitters (power): If you’d prefer to go against my selection of Lamb, Khris Davis is an excellent power play. He’s bashed 10 home runs over his last 19 games including three multi-homer performances. He may bat cleanup if Adam Lind gets a day of rest. If not, he’ll still be fifth.

Also consider: Mark Canha, David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Stephen Piscotty, Avisail Garcia, Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Paulsen, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Didi Gregorius, Logan Forsythe, Michael Cuddyer, C.J. Cron

Hitters (speed): Ender Inciarte still bats leadoff for the Diamondbacks. He’s not running too often, probably due to a high caught stealing rate. He’s 13-for-20 in stolen base attempts this season. He’s done a decent job atop the lineup with a .29/.331/.394 slash. He’s opposed by Jesse Chavez.

Also consider: Will Venable, Tyler Saladino, Travis Jankowski, Rajai Davis

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

I’m in a rush today so I skipped the weather factors. A couple games have a minor storm risk. I’m not too concerned.

The Link.

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