The Daily Grind: Second Half, Danks, Koehler, Paulsen

Agenda

1. Welcome Back
2. Daily DFS – Danks, Fernandez
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Iwakuma, Paulsen, Polanco
4. Factor Grid

1. Welcome Back – Second Half Notes

• Welcome back to the second half of the season. We’re roughly 88 to 91 games into the season. The American League has provided us with excellent entertainment this year, and it should continue down the stretch. Only two teams feel like they’re out of the race (and in truth they could bounce back too).
• The Mariners are a game ahead of the Athletics, but some part of me says the A’s could recover from their eight game deficit in the AL West. I don’t see the same explosiveness on the M’s roster. The Indians and White Sox are both 11 games back in the AL Central, but the Indians have one of my favorite rosters in the game. The White Sox…not so much.
• As a result of the leaguewide parity, don’t expect AL teams to be selling. This is a boon to owners in AL Only leagues as there should be an influx of talent in the next couple weeks. NL Only owners are likely to lose players entirely or see them swapped to other NL teams. The biggest names I could see landing in the NL are Ben Zobrist and Jeff Samardzija. Conversely, the AL might land studs like Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, and Justin Upton. And that’s the tip of the iceberg.
• In most H2H formats, owners will be treated to a 10 game contest starting today. The longer the contest, the more likely the best team will win. Still, a couple lucky days can carry the long week.
• It’s time to go grab a share of Ken Giles if he’s on your waiver wire. The righty is 38 percent owned in Yahoo leagues. He has three wins, no saves, 49 strikeouts, a 1.86 ERA, and 1.24 WHIP in 38.2 innings. Most of the WHIP came early in the season when his command was shaky. Once Jonathan Papelbon is traded, Giles will be a top 10 or 15 closer. The Phillies club is terrible, but I think they’re starting to gel. With Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco providing some offensive upside, I could see Giles closing 15 games.

2. Daily DFS – Danks, Fernandez

Early: The Royals and White Sox have a doubleheader. Everybody else is late. Hope you weren’t itching to use or exploit Edinson Volquez or Jeff Samardzija. You probably weren’t.

Late: As you might expect, few teams are using a truly terrible pitcher after a four day break. Surprisingly, not everybody is turning to their staff ace. The most exploitable pitchers are Adam Morgan, Martin Perez, and John Danks. That last one, Danks, might be worth picking upon. The Royals are visiting homer friendly U.S. Cellular Field. Since it’s the second game of a doubleheader, the Sox lousy bullpen might already be stressed.

As for picking a pitcher, it’s tempting to make room for Jose Fernandez ($10,500 on FanDuel). He’s up against the Phillies. Fernandez has pitched well in two starts back from the disabled list. We can assume the Marlins won’t let him throw over 100 pitches, but he could still go six to eight innings. Despite the rosy forecast, I prefer to roster somebody uninhibited like Lance Lynn, Sonny Gray, Noah Syndergaard, or even Kyle Hendricks.

Stack Targets: Morgan, Danks, Perez, Mike Leake, Julio Teheran, Collin McHugh, Matt Cain, Robbie Ray, Wade Miley, Jorge de la Rosa

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Iwakuma, Paulsen, Polanco

Pitchers to Start: It seems like every fantasy publication picked Erasmo Ramirez as their second half darling on the waiver wire. Assuming you’ve already run face first into at least one such post, let’s talk about Tom Koehler. He’s a patently solid (if boring) pitcher with a 3.40 ERA and 4.48 FIP. Expect both stats to settle in the high-3s.

You’ll want to consider using him tomorrow because he’s opposed by the Phillies. Koehler is the type of pitcher the Phillies could beat, but the numbers are still in the Marlins favor. So long as you’re ok with 6.50 K/9 and a slightly elevated meltdown risk, Koehler is a solid play. Chad Billingsley is on the other side of the matchup.

Also consider: Erasmo Ramirez

Pitchers to Exploit: Since returning from the disabled list, Hisashi Iwakuma has been both excellent and execrable in two starts. He’s too good of a pitcher to regularly target, but a start at Yankee Stadium offers some opportunity. Mostly, you’ll be looking to Chase Headley or maybe Garrett Jones.

If you’d rather target a truly lousy pitcher, you have options.

Also consider: R.A. Dickey, Jeremy Guthrie, Chad Billingsley, Chris Tillman, Manny Banuelos, Colby Lewis, Scott Feldman, Bartolo Colon, Jake Peavy, Chase Anderson, Rick Porcello

Hitters (power): I should have talked about Ben Paulsen earlier in the season. The Rockies backup first baseman starts against most right-handed pitchers. Tomorrow he’ll see Tyson Ross. It’s not an easy matchup, but Ross has taken a step backwards since Derek Norris joined the battery. Paulsen is a .285/.350/.492 hitter against righties with a normal(ish) .337 BABIP. He’s a better play at Coors Field, but Petco Park isn’t terrible for left-handed power.

Also consider: Yonder Alonso, David Peralta, Mitch Moreland, Justin Bour, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Headley, Jones

Hitters (speed): Gregory Polanco is technically slightly over-owned for inclusion here. Hitting near the bottom of the Pirates lineup, all he can do to provide value is steal bases. He has 17 swipes on the year, putting him among the league leaders. I anticipate a second half surge – roughly .265/.330/.400. With it should come another 15 stolen bases. He’ll face Jimmy Nelson at power happy Miller Park.

Also consider: Anthony Gose, Freddy Galvis, Adam Eaton

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Home run conditions are fantastic this evening. Tonight promises to be an eventful return to DFS. The two storm risk games (three actually) should all happen. There could be delays.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.