The Daily Grind: Ross, Happ, Tomas

Agenda

1. Performance vs. Projection
2. Daily DFS – Ross
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Happ, Danks, Tomas, Aoki
5. Factor Grid

1. Performance vs. Projection

This is a friendly reminder – we care about what a player will do, not what he’s already done. His performance to date informs what we expect him to do in the future, but it’s not the only consideration.

I write a column called Saves and Steals for RotoWorld. The main deliverable of the piece is a tiered ranking of all closers. Last week, I caught flak for including Glen Perkins in the third tier. He leads the league in saves, so why do I consider him the 14th best closer?

The slider specialist has pitched to a healthy 1.33 ERA with 9.30 K/9 and 0.89 BB/9. But again, what will he do over the rest of the season? I foresee roughly 9.00 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, and a 3.15 ERA with an elevated risk of injury. He’s had a couple minor but worrisome injuries in the recent past. Jeff Zimmerman has shown that pitchers with high slider rates are more likely to need Tommy John surgery.

This isn’t to say you should dump Perkins. He’s still an excellent reliever. I just happen to prefer the Trevor Rosenthals and Jonathan Papelbons.

2. Daily DFS – Ross

Early: In a not-quite-Shyamalanian twist, we have the full complement of 15 games today. Of those, 10 are early. Strong home run conditions and a bundle of terrible pitchers should ensure a high scoring contest. With no shortage of stacks, the tough question becomes: who do I use?

My attention is drawn to a trio of names. Bartolo Colon is opposed by the Phillies. Philadelphia has actually outplayed New York in recent weeks, but don’t let that dissuade you from an advantageous matchup. Alternatively, Chase Anderson has a tricky but survivable outing against the Cardinals. I also like Tsuyoshi Wada. He’s opposed by Nationals righty Tanner Roark.

Late: Five games are late. I recommend ponying up for Tyson Ross. The Pad-pitcher draws the Angels. The Halos can’t hit right-handed pitchers worth a lick. Most of me believes the poor hitting is a temporary fluke. It’s probably past time for the club to move on from guys like Matt Joyce and C.J. Cron. However, they could solve those dead spots by acquiring Ben Revere and Ryan Howard at any time. I don’t know why they’re waiting.

As I worried entering the season, the Padres don’t have a catcher who can maximize Ross’s results. His walk rate has increased despite similar PITCHf/x numbers. I assume it’s a framing issue. Moving from Yasmani Grandal and Rene Rivera to Derek Norris is a big downgrade. Perhaps Austin Hedges can help.

Stack Targets: Jeremy Guthrie, Nathan Eovaldi, Eddie Butler, Jason Marquis, Severino Gonzalez, Kyle Lohse, Tanner Roark, Phil Klein, Shaun Marcum, David Phelps, Charlie Morton, Hector Noesi, Drew Hutchison, Williams Perez

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Happ, Danks, Tomas, Aoki

Pitchers to Start: J.A. Happ has a 3.61 ERA, 3.61 FIP, and 3.63 xFIP. In other words, there is little reason to doubt that he’s a decent starter. He’s mostly of interest due to a good matchup. The Rays lineup offers its fair share of strikeouts. The game is at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. Happ’s a nice little streaming option.

Also consider: Wandy Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz, Jaime Garcia

Pitchers to Exploit: John Danks draws the right-handed Blue Jays stack. Devon Travis may be sidelined, but Jose Reyes is back in action. The fly ball pitcher will be hard pressed to survive the Toronto assault.

Also consider: Chris Tillman, Scott Feldman, Jeff Locke, Jorge de la Rosa, Michael Lorenzen, Jerome Williams, Odrisamer Despaigne

Hitters (power): In his first stint with the Diamondbacks, Yasmany Tomas has performed reasonably well. Power is supposed to be his calling card, but it’s been conspicuously absent (.083 ISO). That’s ok for now since he’s hitting .333/.373/.417. Once regression sets in on his .408 BABIP, he’ll need to find his power stroke. Otherwise, he’ll be ticketed back to the minors before long. He’ll have the platoon advantage against Garcia.

Also consider: Aaron Hill, Daniel Nava, Mike Aviles, Danny Valencia, Chris Young

Hitters (speed): Nori Aoki’s ownership has crept upwards to 38 percent. It should be higher. Aoki provides strong production in three categories. His platoon splits are easily managed. The Giants are visiting Matt Garza and the Brewers tomorrow.

Also consider: Cory Spangenberg, Chris Owings, Angel Pagan, Juan Lagares, Alejandro De Aza

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Cleveland game is the most likely to be rained out. I wouldn’t worry much about the 20% rain games.

The Link. I think this is the first day jammed with friendly home run conditions. Granted, I haven’t been building Factor Grids for Sundays, and today has a decidedly Sunday feel.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.