The Daily Grind: Rain, Matz, Masterson
Agenda
- Stealthy Rebuilds
- Daily DFS – Rain
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Matz, Masterson, Ike, Espinosa
- Factor Grid
1. Stealthy Rebuilds
It’s the time of year when owners in keeper leagues have to consider selling win-now talent for win-later assets. Many times, this involves ludicrous talent swaps. In one of my leagues, an owner swapped Jake Arrieta, Ben Zobrist, and Jonathan Papelbon for Addison Russell. Granted, Russell is quite cheap to keep, but he’s also an ordinary player. The owner gutted his roster just to get one decent keeper. We can only keep four.
When I enter a rebuilding phase, I try to have my cake and eat it to. I never understood why I would have cake if I wasn’t going to eat it. Why manage a fantasy roster if I’m not going to try to win. When trading for keepers, you’re always going to have to give up more win now talent. In order to also gain in the standings, you’ll have to carefully manipulate the waiver wire and roto standings. In a H2H league, sometimes it can help to simply trade your way to a more balanced roster. Let’s assume you can’t convince your rivals that Mike Napoli is a game away from turning the corner.
If I need five categories of offense, I might try to trade up from Edwin Encarnacion to Anthony Rizzo. If you’re behind on pitching, try trading Clayton Kershaw and a second piece for Gerrit Cole and Carlos Martinez. There are endless combinations. Your first priority is to identify the keepers you want. The next step is to figure out how to acquire them without selling all your base.
2. Daily DFS – Rain
Early: There are just three games in FanDuel’s early group. Philadelphia is a weather risk, so you might want to focus on the domed parks. Toronto starter Matt Boyd would be worth attention if he was available. Alas, he is not. Instead, you can brave the rain for Gio Gonzalez against the Phillies or hope that Kyle Gibson performs well against the Brewers. Yovani Gallardo certainly isn’t attractive against the Blue Jays.
Late: There are 11 games in the main slate. It starts at 4:05 ET and does not include the Diamondbacks-Padres game. You can also play a true late contest that does include the San Diego match. For an ace, you can choose Clayton Kershaw, an occasionally mortal Matt Harvey, or Masahiro Tanaka. In the bargain bin, Cody Anderson’s skill set interests me. Unfortunately, weather reports say Baltimore is doomed to be postponed.
Perhaps a look at Charlie Morton is warranted. The ground ball specialist is opposed by the Freeman-less Braves. Here too, you’ll have to dodge storm warnings. Thinking about southpaw Kyle Ryan against a White Sox team that simply can’t hit lefties. The weather report says there is a 100 percent chance for rain all game.
Honestly, I love days like this. By simply picking dry locations, you’ll vastly improve your odds at taking home some money. There’s always participants who either roll the dice on the stormy game or foolishly ignore weather.com. Too bad I’ll be going to a wedding.
Stack Targets: Gallardo, Matt Garza, Adam Morgan, Chris Rusin, John Danks, Michael Lorenzen, Tom Koehler, Wade Miley, Matt Andriese, Chris Tillman, J.A. Happ, Donn Roach
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Matz, Masterson, Davis, Espinosa
Pitchers to Start: Yep. You probably already missed your chance to grab Steven Matz. Through five minor league stops, his worst stint included a 2.62 ERA (2.91 FIP) in 106.1 innings. Some Mets officials have said he’s the best pitcher in their system. I’m sure that’s hyperbole. I mean, Matt Harvey.
Before we get all drooly over Matz (I’ve seen Clayton Kershaw comps!), let’s reflect on his scouting report as provided by Kiley McDaniel on January 1. He’s given a 50 grade future value on the 20-80 scale. McDaniel notes a 91-95 mph fastball with an above average to plus change and curve. Actually, here’s his FG+ caption (also via McDaniel).
Matz works 91-95 and hits 96 mph with an above average to plus changeup and a curveball that’s improved dramatically to now flash average to slightly above. He’s an excellent athlete that commands his fastball well and his maturity and ability to improve have impressed the Mets. There’s a number three starter in here if it all comes together, but the curveball and command of his off-speed stuff in general is still inconsistent, not to mention his age and injury history give scouts some pause. Matz will pitch at Double-A and Triple-A in 2015 and could be in line for some big league time depending on his development and how the pitching depth chart shakes out. If all goes to plan, he should be a factor in the 2016 rotation.
I’m on the Matz bandwagon, but there does seem to be cause to doubt the crazy hype.
Also consider: Drew Hutchison, Tommy Milone, Hector Santiago, Chase Anderson
Pitchers to Exploit: The Red Sox were going to put Justin Masterson in the bullpen, but here he is making a start. He’s filling in for Joe Kelly who was optioned to Triple-A. Masterson pitched decently in his rehab stint. Maybe he’ll recapture his past success. I’m betting against it.
Also consider: Chi Chi Gonzalez, Josh Smith, Jose Urena, Kevin Correia, Jeff Locke, Jeremy Guthrie, Kyle Kendrick, Odrisamer Despaigne
Hitters (power): Good news! Ike Davis will face Jeremy Guthrie. The Royals starter is atrocious against left-handed hitters this season. Oh, and some bad news. Guthrie will probably be out of the game after four to six innings. Davis will probably only face an easier pitcher for two plate appearances.
Also consider: Chris Coghlan, Yonder Alonso, David Peralta, Matt Duffy, Justin Maxwell, David DeJesus
Hitters (speed): Now that Anthony Rendon is back on the disabled list (I sure wish I didn’t keep him in so many leagues), Danny Espinosa is back to playing every day. Espinosa’s .262/.345/.443 is in line with what we thought he could do way back in 2011. Our projection systems think he’ll fall apart, but I’m more sanguine. Any excuse to use “sanguine.”
Also consider: Jon Jay, Will Venable, Gregor Blanco, Angel Pagan, Billy Burns, Eddie Rosario
4. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
It’s looking like a hell of a rainy day. The Phillies, Mets, and Pirates games all look iffy, but they might dodge the worst of the weather. The current reports for Baltimore and Detroit scream rain out. I would avoid those games entirely. Now I need to go back and edit all my fantasy lineups again…
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