The Daily Grind: Post-Memorial

I’m back from a weekend in New Orleans. Well, most of me is back. Anyway, what did I miss?

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Alley-Oops

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Way back on Thursday, mentalpowers rode Lucas Giolito, Ryan Yarbrough, and Tommy Pham to the gold chair. If you’ll recall, it was a weird two-game slate complete with an Opener. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a feisty 13-game contest on FantasyDraft. As per the usual, it’s a $2 no rake GPP.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

The Indians-Red Sox appear to be DOOMED. Philadelphia and New York look like they could be wet but not in a postponement kind of way. The Yankees game isn’t even a part of the slate so who cares.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

For the hefty quantity of games, there sure aren’t many good pitchers available. While I’ve been riding Frankie Montas ($22,100) this season, it’s because price models hadn’t adjusted to his new splitter. This is… an overcorrection. As we know, the Angels are anti-strikeout prone. The Athletics do have an obvious path to victory against Opener Luis Garcia plus whoever else the Angels plan to use. It looks like Matt Harvey’s turn. It’s just a seriously uphill battle for Montas to provide value on this price.

Stephen Strasburg ($23,200) costs more, has a tougher matchup, and is still a better value. Even so, this feels like an obvious day to avoid top pitchers. It only takes a couple mistakes against the Braves to turn a solid outing into a bland 12 point performance.

Also overpriced relative to his expected production is Rich Hill. To reach $21,500 worth of points, he’ll need to pitch beyond his usual four to six innings. That or repeat his double-digit strikeout total from two weeks ago. The Mets remain banged up and an offense to target. Steven Matz ($14,900) catches my eye as a scary bargain target. Although a meltdown is on the table, he’ll typically furnish 15 or more points. The Dodgers aren’t quite as terrifying against left-handed pitching. He’s mostly interesting as a contrarian play.

Giolito ($19,400) is back in saddle again. And after a complete game drubbing of the mighty Astros, he’s sure to be very popular against the mediocre Royals. They’re an imperfect offense to target in daily fantasy as they feature just enough contact and power to be volatile despite otherwise well-below average attributes.

The last pricey arm is Matthew Boyd ($19,400). While I’ve found visits to Camden Yards to be a trap this season, I’m still very much convinced that A). the Orioles offense is a joke and B). the win bonus is practically assured. As I’ve warned, Boyd has regressed from a carrying influence to merely reasonable point totals. Despite this, I’ve already mentally locked him into my first lineup.

I’ve gone too wordy on the expensive arms, let’s trim the fat. I’ll probably pass on even considering Martin Perez ($17,600) hosting Zach Davies ($12,700). Too much power on hand. Nick Pivetta ($17,200) is back in the majors after a successful stint in Triple-A. I’d consider a flier if he was on the road. I want no part of him in Citizen’s Bank Park tonight. Jeff Samardzija ($15,800) at Trevor Richards ($15,800) offers a confusing mid-tier contest between two terribad lineups. Both pitchers occasionally tease us with good outings. The pricing system shrugged.

Jon Lester ($14,500) and Corbin Martin ($13,500) also features an awful lot of offense for these merely decent arms to overcome. At least they’re aggressively priced – unlike Perez or Pivetta. It’s Ryan Yarbrough day. But I’ll firmly pass for $15,900. Sadly, rain will ruin our first chance to see Zach Plesac, a player I highlighted a few weeks ago in Peripheral Prospects.

Favorite Plays: Boyd, Samardzija, Richards

Stack Targets: Dylan Bundy, Pivetta, Clayton Richard, Merrill Kelly, Antonio Senzatela, Harvey, Adam Wainwright, Yarbrough, Jesse Chavez

4. SaberSim Says…

Hill, Boyd, Bundy????, Richards, and Strasburg carry the top projections. Anyone want to care to explain why both FDraft’s pricing and SaberSim seem to think Bombko Bundy is the slightest bit playable? Plesac, Brad Keller, Bundy, Marco Gonzales, and Richards are the preferred bargains. I somehow scrolled right on past Gonzales. I also like him against a Rangers offense that struggles against left-handed pitchers.

On the hitting side a Coors game dominates the slate. Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, David Dahl, and Kyle Schwarber are the biggest bats. The Sim has been team Schwarber all year despite seriously tepid production. I don’t see anything about this matchup that’s obviously valuable. Jack Mayfield, Will Smith, Jesus Aguilar, Schwarber, and Tyler White are the best bargains. Smith will get a chance to put himself firmly ahead of Keibert Ruiz on the depth chart.

5. Alley-Oops

Baseball ought to adopt a water mode.

Ji-Man Choi is basically a taller Willians.

Alley-Oops.