- The Process Pep Talk
- Daily DFS – Pompey
- GB / FB Splits
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Bradley, Vargas, Plouffe, Pompey
- Factor Grid
1. The Process Pep Talk
Today seems like a good day to talk about using a process for traditional and daily fantasy. Last night had three of the best pitchers in baseball available in Matt Harvey, Carlos Carrasco, and Jake Arrieta. Harvey and Arrieta had mediocre outings. Carrasco was literally knocked out of the game after two batters – thankfully he’s fine. My DraftKings lineups leaned heavily on Harvey and Carrasco. They flubbed as a result.
A good process is meant to pave the way to a good result. However, the process interacts with luck and other factors before reaching the result. At one point, the point leader on the FanDuel Squeeze (53 points at the time) had Michael Brantley in his lineup. We knew Brantley would probably miss yesterday’s game on Monday. That’s an example of bad process, good result.
If you’ve yet to see positive results from your process, don’t give up. Continue honing your approach to ensure that yours is a good process. The results will eventually follow.
2. Daily DFS – Pompey
Early: There’s a four game set in the afternoon. The pitchers involved all carry risk and reward with the exception of Anthony Ranaudo. He’s just risk. As such, you may want to stack Angels hitters.
Late: I recommend fixating on the Rays – Jays game. Toronto will see righty Erasmo Ramirez. That opens up the entire Jays stack since Ramirez has struggled against all types of hitters. Today lacks high ceiling pitchers aside from a couple decent vets. As such, it’s not a bad day to go cheap at pitcher and load up on hitters.
Dalton Pompey remains cheap. He hits second for the Jays. As I’ve said elsewhere, I worry about his profile. His numbers are strikingly similar to Jackie Bradley. However, just because Pompey has similarities to a possible bust doesn’t mean he can’t grow.
Pompey feasts on fastballs. That could work in his favor today against Ramirez. The former Mariner is a fastball-changeup pitcher. He has a slider and curve, but they aren’t very good.
3. GB / FB Splits
If you tuned in yesterday, you noticed the new splits data we’re incorporating into the column. The following hitters are recommended based on how they perform against certain pitcher batted ball tendencies. The works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth show how ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s recommendations.
Note: Pitchers with a ground ball rate above 48 percent are considered fly ball pitchers. Below 40 percent are ground ball pitchers.
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Bradley, Vargas, Plouffe, Pompey
Thin Thursday includes just six games. We’ll have to get reachy.
Pitchers to Start: At 41 percent owned, chances are you won’t find Archie Bradley on your waiver wire. He’ll pitch against a mediocre Giants lineup at pitcher friendly AT&T Park. Bradley’s basically a two pitch guy with a 94 mph fastball and a good curve. He’ll flip a rare changeup. Both of his primary pitches are quite good, but it’s hard to succeed with such a predictable repertoire. He’s a sell high candidate if you happen to own him.
Also consider: Aaron Sanchez
Pitchers to Exploit: None of the exploits are guaranteed to hemorrhage. I know I’ll be eyeing a few Twins against Jason Vargas, so let’s call him the top target of the day. Vargas is a perfectly adequate lefty, but he does toss the occasional stinker. The Twins have a couple righty bats to call upon.
Hitters (power): Is Trevor Plouffe a power threat? That’s debatable. We do know that he’s a career .273/.344/.471 hitter against southpaws. It’s a good line for somebody who’s available in almost all leagues.
Hitters (speed): We already discussed Pompey today, but we don’t have many options for stolen bases tomorrow. Also try his teammate Devon Travis.
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
It should be a dry day. Keep an eye on game time temperatures.
The Link. There are just four green games, so target your offense accordingly. The game in Baltimore will be quite chilly.
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