The Daily Grind: Pelfrey, Hammel, Lobstein, O’Sullivan

Agenda

1. Programming Notes
2. Daily DFS  – Pelfrey, Hammel
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Lobstein, O’Sullivan, Mayberry, Davis
4. Factor Grid

1. Programming Notes

Usually, my Saturday mornings are normal workdays. Today is a little different in that I had to wake up at 3:30am to drive to the airport. Now, the computer screen is painful to look at and my brain feels fuzzy. As such, I’m going to tell you about my schedule rather than provide insight and analysis.

There will be no Daily Grind on Sundays this year. You’re welcome to leave information requests in the Saturday Grind. Generally, I will have my own baseball games to play, so I can’t promise I’ll answer all questions.

My team has its season opener today against Nick Maness. Mets fans may recognize Maness as a former prospect in their system. General baseball fans may note that his name bears a striking resemblance to former Cardinals reliever Seth Maness. Some Google searching reveals that both Maness’ were born in the same hospital but are not directly related.

2. Daily DFS – Pelfrey, Hammel

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Yesterday, I recommended that you stack Tigers against T.J. House. The Indians wised up and bumped Corey Kluber up to today’s start. He’s on normal rest.

Instead, look to the White Sox against Mike Pelfrey. Pelf claims to be fully healthy for the first time in years. He hasn’t throw in front of PITCHf/x cameras yet, so we don’t know if his velocity is up. We do know that he hasn’t been remotely decent since 2010. Even that performance came with considerable caveats.

The White Sox stack includes a number of inexpensive targets like Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, and Conor Gillaspie.

Late: Some pitchers need every card in their personal deck. Jason Hammel strikes me as one of those guys. Unfortunately, he’ll be pitching at Coors Field. As you’re probably aware, pitch movement is hindered by altitude. Often, the result is a case of gopheritis.

Stack Targets: Jeremy Guthrie, Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez, Yovani Gallardo, Vance Worley, Jimmy Nelson

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Lobstein, O’Sullivan, 

Pitchers to Start: When I stream, I take one of two approaches. I either target the win or the strikeout. With Kyle Lobstein, I’m chasing a victory. He’s not an impressive pitcher, but he should survive a matchup against the incredibly left-handed Indians. Meanwhile, the Detroit offense should give him a heaping helping of run support.

Also consider: Carlos Martinez, Raisel Iglesias, Henderson Alvarez, Jesse Hahn, Clay Buchholz

Pitchers to Exploit: I already wrote about T.J. House yesterday. Everything still applies.

The Phillies decision to include Sean O’Sullivan in the rotation strikes me as a lack of creativity. O’Sullivan has underwhelming stuff, skews towards fly balls, and rarely strikes out hitters. The Natonals should mash him. If there’s a downside, it’s that only a couple Nats hitters are available on the waiver wire.

Also consider: House, Masahiro Tanaka, Josh Collmenter, Jake Peavy, Colby Lewis, Casey Sadler, Nate Karns

Hitters (power): Apparently, John Mayberry Jr. will bat third for the Mets against left-handed pitching. At least, that’s how it worked out a couple days ago. A matchup against Alex Wood is difficult, but there’s no arguing with a prominent place in the lineup for free. Mayberry is available in my 20-team, 48 player dynasty, so he’s probably on the wire in your league too.

Also consider: Justin Smoak, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena

Hitters (speed): My House recommendation from yesterday included Rajai Davis. One day later, he’s still an excellent play against just about any southpaw. He’s definitely the most impressive speed option of the day.

Also consider: Michael Taylor, Eric Young

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Only one game has a risk of rain, and it’s fairly low. A few games have poor conditions for power. Keep in mind, cold weather isn’t always an automatic positive for pitchers.

The Link. Whether you’re playing the early to late contest, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to pick good stadiums.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.