The Daily Grind: Peace Killer Robot Rebooted

Dr. Nusbaum was right. He’s my therapist. He said get it out in the open. So here it is: Streaming Wars for Tuesday, July 31.

Also out in the open, enriching daily overlays via The Daily Grind Invitational.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. A Call For Materials

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Maddmaxxx edged out the competition last Friday with the help of Francisco Lindor, Zack Greinke, Curtis Granderson, and Chase Anderson. Congrats and Leaderboard.

The overlays are getting pretty extreme. There’s absolutely no downside to joining us on FantasyDraft. By expected value, participants can now anticipate winning at a rate of $160 per year (math: 81 cent overlay times two entries times about 100 contests).

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

The Braves and Cardinals games could be slightly delayed. It’s a low risk.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: The pitching talent feels flat tonight. It’s a mix of good pitchers with bad matchups and middling pitchers with good matchups. Gerrit Cole ($24,600) is rightfully the priciest, but there’s a risk he’s cancelled out by James Paxton ($18,800). The Paxtonator (translation: Peace, uh, killer robot?) is returning from a nagging back injury. His last start was scratched at the last minute. In addition to the tough matchup, expect a short leash.

Kenta Maeda ($19,500) is in the midst of his best season. The Brewers offense is a tough read. They have a team 93 wRC+ yet the individual components are rather intimidating. They’ve recently indirectly replaced their second-to-worst hitter with Mike Moustakas. I still like the matchup for Maeda even if there’s some risk. Freddy Peralta ($16,200) rates pretty highly too, but I just don’t buy it. A rookie against the Dodgers lineup? HARD pass. In fact, I’m looking to stack target Peralta.

Aaron Nola ($17,800) at David Price ($17,000) has the feel of a coin-flip. I’m the Phillies would have loved to complete that rumored Adam Jones trade in time for this short series. Nola has that tasty ace ability. Despite a scary Red Sox opponent, I consider him the best target tonight. There’s nothing wrong with playing the Price side of the equation even if he’s riskier.

Tyler Anderson ($16,000) is somebody I like to use when he’s very cheap. If he costs more than Carlos Martinez ($15,300), then I’m confused. While C-Mart is returning from the disabled list, I have to figure his premium talent outstrips Anderson’s blander good-enough profile.

If Nola isn’t for you, then Robbie Ray has to be the juice. He costs just $15,200 for a tasty matchup against the Rangers at Chase Field. Strikes aplenty! And a high probability for a win. Ray could be the top projection in this slate, although he should be viewed as exceptionally volatile.

Derek Holland ($15,000) is solid enough for a visit to Petco Park. He’s looking a lot better this season. His opponent, Eric Lauer ($8,500), is consistently underpriced.

Julio Teheran ($14,600) versus the Marlins and Shane Bieber ($15,700) at Minnesota round out the playable options.

Stack Targets: Peralta, Wei-Yin Chen, Martin Perez, Marco Estrada, Edwin Jackson

4. SaberSim Says…

Ray, Martinez, Paxton, Cole, and Maeda round out the top five pitchers. Projection systems are notoriously bad with handling injured players. Sure enough, Pax and C-Mart are overprojected on innings. Lauer, Ray, and Martinez are the value plays. Premium bats include Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Wil Myers. Be a tad careful with Freeman. Chen kills lefties. Bargain hunters should look for Mike Moustakas, Tyler Flowers, Acuna, and Roman Quinn Medicine Woman

5. A Call For Materials

I have an offseason project in mind that requires the acquisition of old prospect handbooks. If you have any unwanted prospect books taking up shelf space, I’m willing to reimburse shipping costs. For slightly more information, see this advertisement.