The Daily Grind: Overlay Alert #3

He’s the new Ryan Howard (tiny $1/mo paywall).

UPDATE: Video podcast is live. We did a DRAFT draft and talked through every corner of the Thursday night slate.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. The Circus

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Before congratulating Jaymcstell on his victory, I want to point out something interesting I noticed. Of the top 20 players, only 10 were rostered by anybody. Seven of those were on two or fewer rosters (four percent owned). Only two, Jose Quintana and Eduardo Rodriguez, were over 10 percent owned.

Anyway, Jay won. He also placed fifth. He twice rostered Derek Dietrich – the only person to do so. Josh Harrison was on his top roster. Congrats and Leaderboard.

Same parameters for tonight – $2, 52-entry, two entry max on FantasyDraft. We will definitely have a sizable overlay.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Looks fine to me.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: The action is split today with five games early and five late. Most of the interesting pitchers are in the afternoon batch. Miles Mikolas ($21,200) has a creamy matchups versus the Marlins. His opponent, Trevor Richards ($10,900), posted some playable numbers at Triple-A. He was rushed to the majors earlier this season. I recommend paying attention to this outing. Even if he performs poorly, he might show enough to be fantasy relevant. I’d probably avoid actually using Richards today.

Jose Berrios ($20,500) should be the most expensive pitcher. After some late-April, early-May hiccups, he appears to be back in cruise mode. A pairing against the strikeout prone White Sox seems advantageous to me.

Nick Pivetta ($18,100) tends to post very high or very low scores. That kind of volatility works well in GPPs. His opponent, Tyler Chatwood ($13,000) is quite erratic. He may benefit from facing the strikeout prone Phillies. As of now, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley. Sometimes it switches direction mid-day so you may wish to hunt for a better source.

Jameson Taillon ($16,000) has that sexy new slider. He’s a $20,000 pitcher at home. The Dodgers will call upon Dennis Santana ($9,600) who had a tough but encouraging debut at Coors Field. I’d estimate Santana is a $15,000 quality starter at PNC Park.

Tyler Mahle ($12,300) may be able to handle the Rockies at sea level. Be warned: he has serious platoon splits. Colorado is not without lefty bats.

Stack Targets: Santana, Richards, James Shields, Mahle, Chatwood, Tyler Anderson, Pivetta

Unestablished rookies are always super high variance. Pivetta is the contrarian stack target.

Main Slate: By comparison, the night crew is difficult. Gerrit Cole will run you $27,600. He’s probably worth every penny given the alternatives and strikeout prone nature of the Rangers. The next most expensive pitcher is his opponent, Cole Hamels ($16,100). I would not use Hamels versus Cole. I do like the punning potential of the Cole-Hamels matchup.

Uh oh.

Jalen Beeks, praise the gods, is making his major league debut. And FantasyDraft has him in the system for $10,900. Prepare for 90 percent ownership opposite the Tigers. Honestly, I’m not sure we can skip out on this valuation. Without throwing a pitch in the majors, I’m pretty sure he’s the second best pitcher in the slate. I’m not even that bullish about his future.

Mike Leake ($14,600) has been recently decent. The Rays will start Ryne Stanek, but it’s Austin Pruitt ($9,200) you want to roster. As the second pitcher on the bump, he has elevated odds to earn the victory.

Matt Boyd ($11,100) has pitched well, but I’m not on the bandwagon. A matchup against the Red Sox is far from ideal. David Hess ($10,000) is sometimes alright. He’s visiting the Blue Jays.

Stack Targets: Paul Blackburn, Stanek/Pruitt, Hess, Beeks, Boyd, Jason Hammel, Jaime Garcia, Hamels

Yea, you can stack against Beeks too. It’s a clever GPP play since his ownership will be so high.

4. SaberSim Says…

Cole, Beeks, Boyd, Leake, and… Blackburn… are the top rated pitchers. Blackburn is a terrible sinker ball specialist. Unless something has changed, he lacks notable secondary offerings. Values include Beeks. Let’s just stop there.

George Springer, Nelson Cruz, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa (possibly injured), and Alex Bregman draw the top ratings tonight. I wasn’t sure about putting Hamels in the stacking category. Now I am. Curtis Granderson, Evan Gattis, Dustin Fowler, and Mallex Smith are among the bargains. I feel like a Smith play requires a couple stolen bases. Mike Zunino isn’t exactly prone to those – he’s caught 11 of 25 attempts this season (44 percent).

5. The Circus

This is why he’ll earn the big bucks.

David DeJesus this was hit hard.

duh~duh~duhduhduhduh