The Daily Grind: McCullers, Hutchison, Crisp

Agenda

1. Flu-like Symptoms
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hutchison, Gonzalez, Bour, Crisp
5. Factor Grid

1. Flu-like Symptoms

A baseball insider once told me that 50 percent of the time a player is listed with flu-like symptoms, they’re suffering from a bad hangover. We as a society tend to frown upon babying people with hangovers – after all, they did it to themselves. However, I’m sure hungover players have a higher risk of injury (I’ve seen no such studies). It’s probably smart to give those fools a day to recover their fluids.

That still leaves half of all flu-like symptom cases, and I have a theory. I’ve suffered mild heat exhaustion a couple times in the last two seasons. The first was after playing a day game in Arizona. The temperature was around 110 degrees, it was our first game of the season, and only nine players showed up. I had the dreaded summer flu the rest of that day and the next.

The second time was yesterday, and the pattern is repeating itself. As such, you’re now reading some words about illness rather than actionable fantasy advice.

One could draw a tenuous link between flu-like symptoms and fantasy value. If a player misses with flu-like symptoms multiple times in a year, it probably means he drinks too much or he’s prone to heat exhaustion. In either case, the player has lost fluids and essential salts. Injury risk follows. No specific player examples come to mind.

2. Daily DFS – McCullers

Early: Out of the seven games to be played today, just one is early. The Blue Jays will see lefty C.J. Wilson while the Angels draw Aaron Sanchez. Los Angeles has been especially bad against right-handed pitching this season. Sanchez could be a viable stream start in daily moves leagues.

Late: Who isn’t intrigued by Lance McCullers? The 21-year-old has parlayed improved control into a 0.62 ERA, 13.34 K/9, and 3.41 BB/9 in 29 Double-A innings. It’s rumored that the Astros are showcasing McCullers as a possible piece for Cole Hamels. He’ll have to pitch well to draw the Phillies attention. However, if he pitches too well (think Matt Harvey debut), then the Astros may decide to keep him.

For fantasy purposes, I remain concerned about his command and control. Modest breakouts can sometimes reverts when climbing the ladder, especially for pitchers jumping two levels from Double-A to the majors. I’ve acquired McCullers in multiple leagues, but he’ll remain on my bench for today.

Stack Targets: Mike Fiers, Kyle Lobstein, Rubby de la Rosa, Dan Haren, Drew Pomeranz

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Sadly, there are only three names today. J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera pound fly ball pitchers. They’re up against Mike Fiers. Martinez has an .857 fly ball OPS while Cabrera owns a lofty 1.105 OPS. You may just want to ignore Grady Sizemore versus Jordan Lyles. Sizemore does have a .756 OPS against ground ball pitchers, but that’s not very exciting.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hutchison, Gonzalez, Bour, Crisp

Pitchers to Start: Last week, I suggested that the Drew Hutchison matchup was a solid exploit. Many Houston hitters thrive against fly ball pitchers. They also happen to strikeout in droves. Hutchison’s outing brought his whiff rates back in line with 2014. This time around, he’ll face an Angels lineup that can’t handle right-handed pitching. Their 72 wRC+ against northpaws is only worsted by the Phillies (68).

Also consider: Nathan Eovaldi, Carlos Frias

Pitchers to Exploit: Of all the potential pitchers to exploit, Miguel Gonzalez has pitched the best. He has a 2.93 ERA although his 4.10 FIP is less rosy. The fly ball pitcher is known for an elevated home run rate. He’ll have to contend with a very left-handed Mariners lineup at Camden Yards. There is a 128 park factor for left-handed home runs.

Also consider: Taijuan Walker, Ricky Nolasco, Wade Miley, Erasmo Ramirez, Jeremy Hellickson, Chad Bettis

Hitters (power): Justin Bour broke up a no-hitter after 26 outs yesterday. The Marlins are still trying to get Michael Morse going, but it’s increasingly clear that Bour is the better play. He’s hitting .440/.500/.600 in 28 plate appearances. He fits the Yonder Alonso first base profile of high contact rates and modest power. He has a high BABIP in the majors, but that hasn’t been the case in the minors. As such, expect his BABIP to full regress to league average. He’ll face Hellickson.

Also consider: Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Kyle Blanks, Danny Valencia, Jung-ho Kang, Chris Young

Hitters (speed): Coco Crisp’s bat will come around one of these days. He’s mired in a 2-for-40 slump this season. A true major league hitter can’t help but improve upon a .063 BABIP, especially when nearly 95 percent of their balls in play can be classified as “medium” or “hard.” The A’s have demoted him from the leadoff spot, but he’ll eventually resume that gig.

Also consider: Odubel Herrera, Angel Pagan, Nori Aoki, Corey Spangenberg, Juan Lagares, Jace Peterson

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Rockies game could rain if it enters a fourth hour. I wouldn’t worry about that if you want a Colorado or Philadelphia stack. Detroit is the other locale that could see rain.

The Link.

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