The Daily Grind: Lefties on the Loose

Alas, my heroic play of Nestor Cortes and Max Scherzer was thwarted by an elite lineup of scrubs.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Ball Hog

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

A new face took down the victory yesterday. Bagsecurer found the right combination of David Price, Madison Bumgarner, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yuli Gurriel. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a tidy nine-game slate on the horizon this evening at FantasyDraft.

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2. Weather Reports

Sound the all clear.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Mike Minor has faded from the starry heights he reached earlier in the season. Even so, he’s remained a consistent upper-mid-tier performer. Tonight, he carries the top price at $21,300, and it’s honestly not too shabby a play. The Tigers aren’t terrible against left-handed pitching, but they do carry a second-worst 26.5 percent strikeout rate when facing southpaws. Unfortunately, Matt Boyd ($19,600) cancels out Minor’s chances for the win bonus. Speaking of Boyd, he’s a veritable steal for $19,600. The Rangers have the highest strikeout rate versus lefties at 27.6 percent.

Patrick Corbin ($20,400) has tossed a couple duds in recent weeks. Today he’ll face the Marlins and their second-worst offense against lefties. Unlike the Tigers and Rangers though, the Marlins aren’t especially strikeout prone (20.5 percent). They’re feeble in other ways. Zac Gallen ($13,600) looks to be one of the better bargain plays. A short outing is nearly guaranteed considering he barely threw his fastball in his major league debut.

A couple good offenses make Charlie Morton ($19,500) at Jake Odorizzi ($18,600) a modestly risky set of plays. They’ve both outperformed their prices to date. Morton is the more matchup-proof of the pair. Odorizzi has a mixed matchup. His fly ball-heavy approach should shut down certain elements of the Rays lineup even as it boosts others.

Griffin Canning ($16,300) is attractively priced against a middling Reds lineup. A strikeout per inning is likely to go with otherwise solid production. He should receive run support opposite Tanner Roark ($15,100).

Speaking of strikeouts and run support, Yu Darvish ($14,800) is looking like a high risk, high reward play tonight. The wind at Wrigley is expected to blow out to left at a mild five mph. The Cubs will face Dallas Keuchel ($15,500), a pitcher who relies on pinpoint control to thrive. Since this is just his second outing, I’m not expecting A+ command tonight. Right-handed Cubbies are attractive.

On the risk-reward train, you’ll also find Nick Pivetta ($14,700). His range of plausible outcomes extends from five to 30 points. Citizen’s Bank Park exposes him to serious home run risk versus the Mets.

Framber Valdez ($14,000) should have no issues taming the Pirates offense. They’re the third-worst offense against left-handed pitching. Strikeouts aren’t Valdez’s forte so it could be a fairly tame performance. A win is likely.

Favorite Plays: Boyd, Corbin, Canning, Valdez

Stack Targets: Roark, Keuchel, Dario Agrazal, Wade LeBlanc, Adrian Houser, Jason Vargas, Adam Wainwright, Tanner Anderson

4. SaberSim Says…

Boyd, Minor, Corbin, Pivetta, and Morton are the top-rated pitchers. Pivetta, Gallen, Boyd, LeBlanc, and Wainwright are the best values. And to be honest, they’re pretty weak values. This entire slate in general is overpriced. Yordan Alvarez, Pete Alonso, Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins, and Freddie Freeman are the bats to click. Robinson Cano, Yadiel Rivera, John Hicks, Joey Wendle, and Joey Votto are the bargains.

5.Ball Hog

I really liked DJ LeMahieu entering this season after some adjustments he made in 2018 to improve his free agent status. That didn’t result in a typical payday, but the Yankees have gotten everything they paid for.

Whatever happened to that Billy Hamilton guy?

Lindor the ball hog.