The Daily Grind: Jimenez, Martinez, House

Agenda

1. Team Strikeouts
2. Daily DFS – Jimenez and Martinez
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Chavez, Norris, House, Valencia, Marisnick
5. Factor Grid

1. Team Strikeouts

We’re reaching the point of the season where team performance can be used to inform your DFS and traditional fantasy decisions. One of the easiest stats to use is team strikeout rate. Here is a leaderboard ranging from the Astros to the Royals.

It’s not surprising to see the Astros, Cubs, and Brewers atop the strikeout list. These are teams you should target for strikeouts on most days. The Brewers are the safest option, although all three teams have explosive potential. I’m not ready to completely write off a few Carlos Gomez sparked rallies when he returns from the disabled list this Friday.

More surprising strikeout teams include the Pirates, Rays, and Marlins. Pittburgh had the 19th highest strikeout rate last season. They’re currently ranked second highest. The lineup is nearly unchanged, so I expect the team to recover. Do note, there are only a few percentage points separating second from 16th.

The two Florida teams are somewhat harder to gauge since they had a lot of turn over. A 22 percent strikeout rate smells reasonable for them.

The Royals, Athletics, Braves, Red Sox, and Mets have proven among the worst teams to target for a strikeout. The inclusion of the Braves goes against our preseason narratives, although that was part of the goal of their rebuild. They were supposed to be an offense to exploit. Instead, high contact rates have led to average results.

The same can’t be said for the Phillies. They have a low 18.3 percent strikeout rate, and a pitiful .269 team wOBA. The team might be non-terrible once Chase Utley’s .107 BABIP levels out. They remain a safe offense to exploit, although they won’t yield a ton of strikeouts.

2. Daily DFS – Jimenez and Martinez

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The White Sox and Orioles will be playing a quiet game in Baltimore. I imagine the contest will feel quite surreal to the players. One of those is pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. He’s off to a quick start with a 2.30 ERA and 9.19 K/9 in 15.2 innings.

Be wary about buying into the surface numbers – he remains erratic. His strikeout rate is directly tied to his high walk rate. He has to pitch deep into counts for his low 6.2 percent swinging strike rate to produce strikeouts. If he shaves his walks to a respectable level, he’ll lose those punch outs. He’s also the beneficiary of a .147 BABIP.

Late: A start against the very left-handed Phillies will be a test for Carlos Martinez. The book on C-Mart is that he’s prone to opposite-handed hitters. It certainly doesn’t look like anything has changed this year. He has a 2.64 FIP against righties and a 5.44 FIP against lefties. Philadelphia can stack the deck with up to six left-handed hitters.

Stack Targets: Ryan Vogelsong, Matt Shoemaker, Jesse Hahn, Wandy Rodriguez, Mat Latos, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Matt Garza, Michael Lorenzen

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff has highlighted a couple stacking options today. Yesterday’s Yankees stack was mildly successful – especially if you picked somebody better than Michael Wacha to accompany them (I did not…).

Adam LaRoche, Jose Abreu, and Adam Eaton vs. Miguel Gonzalez
Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez vs. Phil Hughes
Chris Carter vs. Andrew Cashner
Jose Bautista vs. Porcello
Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Headley, and Garrett Jones vs. Smyly

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Chavez, Norris, House, Valencia, and Marisnick

Pitchers to Start: After a solid, six inning performance against the Angels last week, Jesse Chavez will make his second start of the season against the same team. Chavez held L.A. to one home run and three walks last time around. He should be better prepared for a long outing, but there are still a lot of things that can go wrong.

The sole alternative is Daniel Norris. The high upside southpaw is against the Indians. Norris should carve up their lefty heavy lineup. He’ll get plenty of run support because…

Pitchers to Exploit: T.J. House is pitching like a LOOGY this season, but he’s not being managed like one. He’s faced 49 right-handed hitters compared to just eight lefties. Those righties are hitting .421/.551/.526 with 12 walks and six strikeouts. The Blue Jays happen to have several extremely good right-handed hitters. It’s an ugly matchup for House.

Also consider: Tim Cooney, David Buchanan, Trevor May, James Paxton, Scott Feldman

Hitters (power): I wish I could recommend Valencia more often. He’s a career .333/.372/.508 hitter against lefties. Add in a dash of House and we have a recipe for cheap production.

Also consider: Seth Smith, Dustin Ackley, Brad Miller, Ryan Raburn, Daren Ruf, Jeff Francoeur

Hitters (speed): Jake Marisnick is becoming a popular waiver wire target, and it’s well deserved. The Astros outfielder has demonstrated an improved contact rate. He hasn’t sacrificed power to put the ball in play – quite the opposite in fact. He’s also among the league leaders with six stolen bases.

Also consider: Robbie Grossman, Adam Eaton, Rajai Davis, Dalton Pompey

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link. The three best power parks are in the early contest. Texas is the best place for evening run production.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.