The Daily Grind: Is Back!

After a one-day hiatus, the Daily Grind returns to, uh, grinding.

AGENDA

1. Remember When…
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Remember When…

Remember when our analysis of home runs was restricted to buckets like “no doubt” and “just enough?” Well, here’s Corey Seager with a three homer game in which he piled up the just enoughs.

It’s good to see Seager going with these low and away pitches. If he keeps this up for any stretch of time, pitchers will start working him in more frequently, leading to more pulled home runs. Meanwhile, Seager’s teammate Cody Bellinger hit his 22nd home run en route to the Rookie of the Year award.

2. Weather Reports

Atlanta has a 50 percent chance of rain. The rest of the league looks safe.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: Four games are early, headlined by Max Scherzer. He costs a crippling $14,100 on DraftKings. He’s visiting Miami. There is just enough power in that lineup for me to advocate a fading approach. Scherzer can run into trouble with home runs. He’s running hot with five straight outings of 30 or more DK points.

Beyond the Scherz is a mangy group of miscreants. Eddie Butler has the best matchup of the group. The Cubs are hosting Miguel Diaz and the Padres. San Diego’s offense is rather anemic, and the Cubs offense should supply some serious run support. Butler is still far from a safe play. I’ll warn you, the Scherzer-Butler combination will be hugely popular.

Dan Straily is the second best pitcher in the slate, but he’s opposite Scherzer and the Nats frisky lineup. It’s why he costs $1,000 less than Drew Pomeranz at Kansas City. I’m inclined to bet one side of the Pom versus Ian Kennedy “duel.”

Erasmo Ramirez and Tim Adleman round out the pool. And yea, they fit right in with the other non-Scherzers.

Stack Targets: Diaz, Ramirez, Adleman, Butler, Kennedy

Main Slate: Shockingly, Jose Berrios is the most expensive pitcher at $11,400. It feels like just last week that he cost under $9,000. Oh, it was. Berrios has a promising matchup against a terrible White Sox offense, and the price tag should scare away the competition.

James Paxton is the best pitcher on the docket, but he’s struggled since returning from the disabled list. Some are speculating that he’s still hurt. If he is off his game, the Tigers offense makes for a terrifying opponent. Maximum volatility.

Carlos Carrasco is a safer ace. He’s visiting a slumpy Orioles offense. Carrasco hasn’t put up those big DFS ace numbers despite overall success this season. He’ll need his best outing of the year to return $10,900 of value.

I fell in love with Jordan Montgomery upon first sight. Tonight, he’ll face a lame-Trout Angels offense. As soon as he completely discards a terrible sinker, he’ll fulfill his destiny as a younger, healthier, and better Rich Hill. Speaking of Hill, he’s also on the bump for $1,000 more than Monty. The Mets offense can be a challenge – even to Clayton Kershaw.

Stack Targets: David Holmberg, Kevin Gausman, Ricky Nolasco, Trevor Williams, Tyler Pill, Taijuan Walker, Nick Pivetta, Jeff Hoffman

4. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Paxton, Justin Verlander, Berrios, and Jeff Samardzija top the charts. I meant to say something about Verlander, but I got distracted. I suppose I could just go back and add it… Nah. I ignored Shark because of the weather report. He’s a fine option if the rain clears out.

5. The Daily Grind Invitational

Monday’s TDG Invitational was the first of the season to not fill. User fourseasons has the dubious (and unfortunate) distinction of winning the free contest. We’re on DraftKings tonight.

6. Bonus Time

Last fall, FanDuel and DraftKings announced a merger. If you’ve been wondering what’s happened since then, the FTC has opted to prevent the merger. Considering the two sites probably represent between 80 and 90 percent of the DFS market, it’s not hard to follow the government’s logic. The DFS sites still have plenty of recourse, but it’ll be a costly legal battle. And be sure, those costs will be passed along to us. It’s in our best interest for the sites to immediately walk away from the proposed merger.