The Daily Grind: Independently Grinding

The independence with which this column grinds is unsurpassed. More, it’s unsurpassable.

AGENDA

1. Happy Grilling Day
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Hitters to Use
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Happy Grilling Day

Is any holiday more burgers and hot dogs than the Fourth of July? Actually, it’s probably tied with Labor and Memorial Day. I’m not convinced these are different holidays. Anywho… what was I saying? Oh, right! Most folks are off today and tomorrow. Take advantage of the raging heat and humidity to shed a few pounds of water weight. Then eat some watermelon to recover it.

There will be no Grind tomorrow, but I may run a make-up chat for the hell of it. Consider it a game time decision.

2. Weather Reports

We get 10 games today, and they should be dry.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Of the 10 games, eight will be played this evening. They’re headlined by Masahiro Tanaka, Marcus Stroman, and Rick Porcello. Oh boy, that’s an ugly list. At least Tanaka has pitched well in three of his last four starts. And the bad outing included 10 strikeouts in four innings. He shouldn’t be treated as vintage Tanaka, but there’s a decent chance he’ll post the top pitching total. He’ll host the Blue Jays. They have some pop which is exactly his weakness this season.

Stroman tends to produce a steady six to seven innings of five strikeout ball. Treat him as the higher floor, lower ceiling alternative to Tanaka. Don’t roster Porcello even though he’s the third most expensive.

Instead, look to Ivan Nova visiting Aaron Nola. Either end of that matchup could produce value. Nola has the upside while Nova practically always pops a 25 point total on FanDuel. Personally, I’d shoot for Nola’s 50 point ability over the nearly-guaranteed minimum production of Nova.

Jharel Cotton is a wreck this season. Fortunately, he’s hosting the White Sox offense. They’re one of the worst clubs versus right-handed pitching. Cotton’s $7,400 price tag is too high for the way he’s been pitching.

You could roll the dice with super inexpensive Andrew Moore, but I see him as a 6.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 5.00 ERA pitcher. At least until he adjusts to the majors. Sometimes, the hitters are the ones that have to adjust first. It’s possible Moore will get a couple freebie outings before the league strikes back.

Stack Targets: Moore, Luis Castillo, Jeff Hoffman, Jeff Locke, Adalberto Mejia, Martin Perez, Ian Kennedy, Cotton, Adam Wainwright, Carlos Rodon

4. Hitters to Use

It’s a Josh Phegley day in Oakland, although I’ll admit I’m not super enthused about going after Rodon. I figure he’s hyper-volatile. It’s also National Rajai Davis Day.

Anybody and everybody at Coors Field! Joey Votto, Scott Schebler, Billy Hamilton, and virtually anybody else at the venue. I like taking speed guys at Coors because more emphasis is placed on power. However, the speed guys have massively increased odds for reaching first base.

If Tanaka turns sour, it’s probably because Justin Smoak, Josh Donaldson, and/or Jose Bautista whomped.

Jeff Locke doesn’t have platoon splits, but that won’t stop me from targeting a slew of right-handed Cardinals like Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Luke Voit, and Randal Grichuk.

5. SaberSim Says…

Nola, Rodon, Cotton, Alex Meyer, and Porcello are the top rated pitchers tonight. Nola’s projection is only 33.9 points. It’s a good day to focus on the lineup. Speaking of which, SaberSim also likes everybody at Coors Field, namely Votto, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Adam Duvall, and Hamilton. Top values include Albert Pujols and a couple Phillies – Nick Williams and Odubel Herrera.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

No Invitational today or tomorrow. See you on Wednesday.