The Daily Grind: Hutchison, Hendricks, Deshields

Agenda

1. Daily DFS – Hutchison, Anderson
2. GB / FB Splits
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hendricks, Norris, Franco, Deshields Jr.
4. Factor Grid

1. Daily DFS – Hutchison, Anderson

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Eight games fall into the early bin. The Cubs and Nats square off at 12:05 ET. That means they will disappear from nearly all DFS formats.

It’s tempting to snag an expensive Madison Bumgarner against the Phillies. As a cash game strategy, it’s safe and it should be effective. In a GPP, I’m probably looking at a less expensive pitcher. Danny Salazar is an attractive high risk, high reward play against a streaky Orioles offense.

If you’re willing to accept even more risk, Andrew Hutchison draws the Astros. Houston still has the second highest strikeout rate in the league. Hutchison rebounded to his 2014 form throughout the month of May. We’re looking at a guy who could strikeout a batter per inning while pitching deep into the game. Of course, the ‘Stros offense could pummel him into the ground from first pitch.

Late: We have six games this evening. And we have aces. Felix Hernandez draws the Rays (96 wRC+ vs. RHP). Clayton Kershaw has the Cardinals (94 wRC+ vs. LHP). David Price gets the candy matchup against the White Sox (41 wRC+ vs. LHP). Then there is Garrett Richards at a slightly more affordable price. Unfortunately, he’s pitching at Yankee Stadium.

If you’re not looking to dig up a fortune for your starting pitchers, Chase Anderson is the obvious play. Most of the reliable second tier guys like Jaime Garcia are opposed by one of those aces. Anderson is opposed by a scuffling Bartolo Colon. The Mets offense has a tepid 86 wRC+ against righties. Anderson is a serviceable breed of pitcher with lowish strikeout and walk rates.

Stack Targets: Brett Oberholtzer, Hutchison, Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Garza, J.R. Graham, Severino Gonzalez, Joe Kelly, Michael Lorenzen, David Phelps, Chris Rusin, Jeff Locke, John Danks, Alex Colome

2. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have 26 names with a notable GB/FB split today. Below are the best.

Kyle Seager vs. Alex Colome
Russell Martin vs. Brett Oberholtzer
Josh Reddick vs. Joe Kelly
Chris Heisey vs. Jaime Garcia
Jonny Gomes vs. Jeff Locke
George Springer, Hank Conger, Jake Marisnick, and Evan Gattis vs. Drew Hutchison

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hendricks, Norris, Franco, Deshields Jr.

Pitchers to Start: Kyle Hendricks has a non-terrible matchup against the Nationals. Perhaps it’s just the similar name, but Hendricks reminds me of what Kyle Kendrick would look like with better command. The righty (i.e. Hendricks) has 7.36 K/9, 1.99 BB/9, and a 3.99 ERA on the season (3.67 xFIP). A low 6.6 percent whiff rate hints at a decline in his strikeout rate. He’s good at limiting the damage while keeping his club in the game. Don’t expect anything exciting from a fantasy perspective.

Also consider: Clay Buchholz, Ryan Vogelsong

Pitchers to Exploit: Hopelessly futile Bud Norris will return from the disabled list in time to face Carlos Carrasco and the resurgent Indians (I told you they’d recover). Norris has pitched terribly this season, but it’s always possible that he’ll recover his previous baffling success.

He’s basically a fastball-slider guy with iffy command. I thought the Astros were going to convert him to relief way back when. Here we have the Orioles still starting him three years later. Granted, prior to his 27.1 bad innings this season, he’s survived Baltimore. I’m always confused when he’s not pounded. There must be some deception I can’t see on TV.

Also consider: CC Sabathia, Odrisamer Despaigne, Kendall Graveman, Sean O’Sullivan, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Guthrie, Mike Montgomery, Jose Urena, Kyle Kendrick

Hitters (power): Let’s talk about Maikel Franco’s second attempt at the majors. On the surface, it looks like he’s doing fine with a .241/.277/.494 line. His .230 BABIP is outweighed by his five home runs. Alas, the low BABIP isn’t fluky. He doesn’t hit many line drives (16.7 percent in a small sample), but the larger concern is his quality of contact. He’s split 25.8 percent of his contact between soft and hard. Those numbers would be fine for say Billy Hamilton. A guy like Franco needs to tap fewer soft ground outs.

So, there are adjustments to be made. That is usually the case with flawed, one tool prospects. He’s still worth a shot against Vogelsong.

Also consider: D.J. LaMahieu, J.T. Realmuto, Logan Forsythe, Joey Butler, Robinson Chirinos, Joey Gallo, Jake Smolinski, Cody Asche, David Freese, Chris Young, David Murphy

Hitters (speed): Delino Deshields Jr. is opposed by Guthrie in what should be a high scoring game. I’ve been asked several times if I believe in this Rule 5 pick. In short, yes. His .393 BABIP is bound to decline. He hasn’t hit enough line drives to support such a lofty figure. The result will be a lower average – perhaps much lower. However, with his plate patience and ability to work a count, he should post a league average OBP. In the process, he’ll have more than enough opportunities to swipe bases in bulk.

Also consider: Juan Lagares, Brandon Guyer, Anthony Gose, Joe Panik, Angel Pagan, Odubel Herrera

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Beware rain in Colorado, Minnesota, and Washington D.C.

The Link.

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