The Daily Grind: Herrera, Kendrick, Bailey

Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Herrera
2. Daily DFS – Kendrick
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Chavez, Bailey, Ross, Gentry
5. Factor Grid

1. Farnsworth on Herrera

It’s funny…I know I was one of the first fantasy analysts in on Odubel Herrera. I selected him in a dynasty league back in February. Since then, the enthusiasm for him has outstripped my wildest projections. Herrera is useful in mixed leagues thanks to his role as leadoff hitter and multi-position eligibility.

If you’ve seen Herrera hit, then you know he has some…noise…to his swing. Check it out (click the image):

I see a viable major leaguer – probably a 3.5 outfielder – who will struggle through some extended slumps when his timing is out of sorts. His swing is rather flat, so power to the outfield is unlikely to develop. However, I think he’ll spray a lot of high velocity grounders and flies. His minor league BABIPs generally hovered around .340-.360. I think he can replicate those numbers in the majors when he’s not slumping.

I took my opinion to Dan Farnsworth. He had this to say:

I don’t mind Herrera’s leg kick at all. By the time he’s actually striding forward it looks like any other hitter’s step. I don’t like his hand path much though. He doesn’t get into the zone very deep, and looks like everything moves down direct to contact and then toward right field. He’s not going to be able to keep his power up unless he keeps getting balls up in the zone or inside.

BABIP wise, I think it’s going to be too easy to get him to hit ground balls to the right side to sustain much more than a league average mark there, without having an elite hand-eye skill. Judging by his just-ok strikeout rates, I don’t think he’s that guy.

I can certainly see what Farnsworth is saying about the swing path. I guess I’m just a little more bullish that he can find hittable pitches.

2. Daily DFS – Kendrick

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Indians and White Sox play early today. The rest of the league is late.

Late: I’m not sure how long Kyle Kendrick will remain a Rockie. I was confused by the signing from the get-go. I think Kendrick is a perfectly viable pitcher at sea level, but his stuff already lacks movement and deception. Toss him into the rarefied air of Coors Field, and you’re left with a bad sinkerballer without viable offspeed stuff. I preferred the Padres stack the last two days when they faced lefties, but they remain valuable against Kendrick too.

At some point, the Rockies will discard Kendrick. Hopefully they’ll learn from their mistake. There seems to be this idea that sinkers are the answer to the Rockies’ pitching problems. I disagree. Most starters who throw sinkers get terrible results from the pitch. It’s only used to keep hitters off balance.

The Rockies ought to develop power pitchers. In trade, they should aim to acquire struggling fireballers like Joe Kelly (at least before the Red Sox find them). It would also make sense to target some command and control types. Their particular talent should adjust to Coors relatively quickly.

Stack Targets: Vance Worley, Adam Warren, Eric Stults, Dillon Gee, Nate Karns, Mike Pelfrey, Yovani Gallardo, Jered Weaver, J.A. Happ

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Not too much to choose from for this particular split. Billy Butler at Jered Weaver is my favorite of the bunch. Butler has a .925 OPS against fly guys. Other good options include Robinson Cano, Kevin Kiermaier, and A.J. Pollock.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Chavez, Bailey, Ross, Gentry

Pitchers to Start: Jesse Chavez will get a spot start. He’s pitched well out of the pen, but he’s not stretched out for a start. Expect only three to five innings. Put another way, it’s a good day to pass up the streaming options.

Also consider: Kyle Hendricks

Pitchers to Exploit: Homer Bailey’s velocity was down in his return, and he seemed to rely heavily on his sinker. He failed to strikeout a single batter in 5.2 innings. Since he made only one start in a minors game, you have to wonder if he was brought back a little too quickly. It took a long time for Bailey to find his stride last year, I expect similar hiccups this time around.

Also consider: Jeff Locke, David Phelps, Sean O’Sullivan, Aaron Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, Clay Buchholz

Hitters (power): The A’s have used a straight platoon in the early going, with Cody Ross starting against lefties. He’s opposed by C.J. Wilson. Ross is a career .292/.358/.552 hitter against opposite-handed pitchers, but he looks a lot worse these days. I wouldn’t get too excited about using him.

Also consider: Travis Snider, Matt Joyce, Yonder Alonso, Mark Canha

Hitters (speed): The Oakland theme continues! Craig Gentry is a nice, free stolen base threat against left-handed pitching. He’ll face Wilson. Gentry usually leads off against southpaws.

Also consider: Alejandro De Aza, Scooter Gennett, Gerardo Parra, Odubel Herrera

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

While there are some rain notes on the grid, I’m not too worried about any postponements. Just be careful using pitchers in those games. The bigger issue today is the preponderance of chilly weather. Terrible home run conditions lie ahead.

The Link. I’m intrigued by Arizona’s comparatively lovely weather.

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