The Daily Grind: Hernandez, Conger, Eaton

Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Hernandez
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hutchison, Fister, Conger, Eaton
5. Factor Grid

1. Farnsworth on Hernandez

Colleague and hitting guru Dan Farnsworth has been offering some interesting tidbits recently. Yesterday, he tipped me off to something I hadn’t noticed about Cesar Hernandez. As part of the next generation of Phillies regulars, Hernandez is getting regular time batting somewhere between first and third in the lineup. He’s a switch-hitter, and his splits say he’s better as a righty (a .440 BABIP helps a lot).

Based on his swing, Farnsworth agrees with the numbers. He says the left-handed swing is very ground ball oriented. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for a rabbit like Hernandez. His game is all about reaching base. Just don’t expect much power against right-handed pitching. When facing southpaws, his swing has much better leverage. Look for doubles power at this point in his career. I’m starting to expect a better version of Rajai Davis.

It’s risky, but I’ve already targeted Hernandez as a keeper in a couple leagues. In one, I traded Lance Lynn to acquire him.

2. Daily DFS 

Early: Participants in the early contest may have a hard time looking past Jake Odorizzi. At just $8,400, he’ll face a limping Phillies offense. If you do manage to look beyond Odorizzi, I bet you’re full stop on Noah Syndergaard (also $8,400). As his start against the Diamondbacks demonstrated, Thor has a massive ceiling. He’s as good a bet as anyone to be the top pitcher of the day. I expect something around 12 FanDuel points against the Nationals.

Late: Jose Fernandez is the most talented pitcher in the evening slate. Once again, I recommend that you take a pass. His $10,300 price tag would be fine if he was in midseason form. Instead, he usually runs into his pitch count around the sixth inning. With the Marlins firmly out of the playoff race, Fernandez is going to be handled carefully for the remainder of the season.

If not Fernandez, when who should we target? Sonny Gray has a tough matchup, and he’s failed to exceed 10 FanDuel points in three of his last five starts. Lance Lynn is at homer friendly U.S. Cellular Field against a White Sox offense that has shown hints of life. He’s probably the guy to target. Anibal Sanchez, Collin McHugh, and Edinson Volquez all have their warts.

The best bargain is probably Robbie Ray. Too bad he’s opposite Fernandez. Ray has contributed a decent strikeout rate and a surprisingly good walk rate. I expect a few more strikeouts and a bunch more walks going forward.

Stack Targets: Adam Morgan, Kyle Lohse, Martin Perez, Jorge de la Rosa, Dallas Beeler, Tony Cingrani, Kevin Gausman, Ivan Nova, Mike Montgomery, John Danks, Joe Kelly, C.J. Wilson, Felix Doubront

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Introducing today’s GB/FB splitters. 27 are listed, some are more relevant than others.

Ryan Howard, Cesar Hernandez, and Ben Revere v Jake Odorizzi
Will Venable v Matt Cain
Matt Wieters v Ivan Nova
Chris Carter v Wade Miley
Howie Kendrick and Andre Ethier v Julio Teheran
Dexter Fowler v Tony Cingrani

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hutchison, Fister, Conger, Eaton

Pitchers to Start: Every time I recommend Drew Hutchison on the road, I invariably receive a dozen messages about his home/road splits. Can you guess what I’m going to say next?

He doesn’t pitch at Coors Field (wasn’t what you guessed, right?), and therefore I don’t care about this home/road nonsense (ah, there it is). Some pitchers do legitimately struggle with their routine on the road. Maybe Hutchison is one of them. The effect amounts to about half a run. In other words, Hutchison is not going to continue to post an 8.81 ERA on the road against a 2.21 ERA at home. Both numbers should regress to around the 3.90 ERA he deserves.

Also consider: Chris Young, Tom Koehler

Pitchers to Exploit: I’ve never been on the Doug Fister bandwagon. I’ve always had a hard time figuring out why he wasn’t a right-handed version of Mark Buehrle. Fister usually costs around $15 in a draft. Buehrle is always free – at least in any 12 team format. This year, Fister’s velocity and ground ball rates are at a career lows. He’s having trouble preventing runs as a result. I’d happily own Buehrle over Fister at the moment.

Also consider: Bartolo Colon, Wade Miley

Hitters (power): Not too many people pay attention to Hank Conger. In a tiny sample, Conger is hitting .320/.424/.640 against southpaws. His career numbers are less extreme but still favor his bat against southpaws. Catcher eligibility is useful too. He’ll face Miley.

Also consider: Yonder Alonso, Andre Ethier, Pedro Alvarez, Danny Valencia

Hitters (speed): It might be time to switch Adam Eaton out of the speed category. I’m half kidding, but he’s shown surprising pop recently. Over the last 30 days, he’s hit .276/.357/.517 with four home run, three doubles, and three triples. He was caught stealing in his only attempt. He hasn’t shown this sort of solid power profile since 2012. It’s encouraging.

Also consider: Will Venable, Gregory Polanco, Anthony Gose

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s a perfect weather day. No stadium has above a 15 percent chance for precipitation.

The Link. TABLE NOTES

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