The Daily Grind: Guerrero, Buehrle, Frias

Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Guerrero
2. Daily DFS – Buehrle
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Frias, Fiers, Alonso, Grossman
5. Factor Grid

1. Farnsworth on Guerrero

I’ve asked our resident swing guru about a few hot hitters recently. One of those is Dodgers utility man Alex Guerrero. In 39 plate appearances, he has five home runs and a .333/.359/.806 slash. His lowest ISO at any level (all small samples) is .284 so there’s reason to believe he can maintain decent pop. Here’s what Dan had to say:

Guerrero does a number of things well. I think his swing path may make him a bit more of a mistake hitter than an elite guy, but he’s definitely looking like the real deal. His hands are very relaxed in the first movements of his swing, so him being a tiny bit steeper (down to the ball) than some of the best hitters in the league won’t hurt him too badly. And his swing path may only mean he’s going to hit a lot of doubles rather than breaking the 20 homer mark consistently. Not a bad deal for a guy who should eventually find a home in the infield.

Guerrero is in an aggressive phase of his career with a swing rate 10 percent above league average. We’ll see if and how he adjusts once pitchers start nibbling.

2. Daily DFS – Buehrle

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Three games fit into the early batch and two of them are weather risks. The third is at San Francisco. You might want to skip this contest.

Late: Mark Buehrle is something of an enigma. The soft-tossing lefty has tiny whiff and strikeout rates. He’s looked particularly bad this season, yet his xFIP isn’t much higher than his career rate. The Yankees have several right-handed bats worth a gander today.

I’m concerned Buehrle’s wily ways will keep the Yankees off balance as they try to…yank…home runs. Buehrle has already allowed six home runs, but he’s usually much better in this regard. Part of me wants to recommend the Yankee stack. This is one in which Buehrle could last anywhere from three to eight innings.

Stack Targets: CC Sabathia, Alex Colome, Joe Wieland, Wily Peralta, Colby Lewis, Samuel Deduno

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff has supplied 31 names today. Below are my favorites. Be sure to check out Springer’s split via the link. It’s too bad he’ll sit out with a possible concussion.

George Springer, Hank Conger, Jake Marisnick, Robbie Grossman, and Evan Gattis vs. Colby Lewis
Drew Stubbs vs. Robbie Ray
Buster Posey and Justin Maxwell vs. Ian Kennedy
Kevin Kiermaier vs. Justin Masterson

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Frias, Fiers, Alonso, Grossman

Pitchers to Start: I would like to write about Anthony DeSclafani or A.J. Burnett, but they both have high ownership rates. Instead, I will point out that:

1. Carlos Frias is starting
2. He throws very hard (96 mph)
3. Carson Cistulli once called him the next Garrett Richards
4. He’ll face a generally ill-regarded Brewers lineup

Also consider: Tim Hudson, Dan Haren, Hector Santiago

Pitchers to Exploit: On the other side of the Frias matchup is Mike Fiers. This offseason, our projection systems fell in love with Fiers. He strikes me as the kind of guy who needs to be at his very best to succeed. He’s racking up the whiffs (10.6 SwStr%) and strikeouts (29.6 K%). He’s also keeping pace with five home runs allowed and fewer than five innings a start.

The Dodgers have a handful of bats who could turn around a mistake. In fact, I foresee such an eventuality.

Also consider: Drew Pomeranz, Ricky Nolasco, Jose Quintana, Chris Tillman

Hitters (power): Yonder Alonso has been dealing with a sore back. Assuming he’s ready to return, he’s a solid play against Rubby de la Rosa. His skill set resembles a low power Adam Lind.

Also consider: David Peralta, Garrett Jones, Trevor Plouffe

Hitters (speed): Jake Marisnick no longer qualifies for this column. We can still discuss his teammate Robbie Grossman. Assuming Springer needs a couple days with his head injury, Grossman should see some action. He’s a contact hitter who has exhibited waaaay too much patience at the plate. He’ll bat down in the order and could swipe a base.

Also consider: Nori Aoki, Ender Inciarte, Kevin Kiermaier, Rajai Davis

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Rain could affect six locations, although the risks aren’t super high. As always, monitor accordingly.

The Link. The best hitters parks have the worst home run weather conditions. We’ll see how that shakes out.

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