The Daily Grind: Grossly Split

Many things are disgusting when you split them apart. Like today’s DFS slate.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Six

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Roc-pile should rename himself top-pile. He has a comfortable spot atop the Leaderboard after another contest win last night. He was the only user to bank 29 points from Nick Ahmed. Congrats.

We’re sitting on a six-game slate this evening on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Not applicable.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early

Depending on the site you’re playing, the early slate can range from five (FDraft) to nine games (DK). I really don’t feel like signing into DK so let’s just take a quick peek at the FDraft group.

Shane Bieber ($21,600) is par value opposite a tough Red Sox lineup. Boston used up their supposed starter (Nate Eovaldi) last night so I guess Brian Johnson ($13,000) gets to help the Indians along to the postseason. While I’ve liked Cleveland in the past, their refusal to build a complete major league roster over the offseason – despite more than ample opportunity – left a bad taste in my mouth. I’m rooting against them.

Rooting interests aside, Wade Miley ($17,600) is next priciest which says all you need to know about this particular contest. A matchup against the ChiSox at Guaranteed Home Run Rate Park is reasonably friendly. I’ll call this one par value too. Now let’s all point and laugh at Ross Detwiler. I thought he’d be pitching in Taiwan by now.

Sean Reid-Foley ($16,700) has performed passably including a solid outing against the Yankees. Of course, a 6.08 xFIP begs to differ. I’m not in at this price. Kolby Allard ($15,800) is the better play in this matchup of random number generating youngsters.

Kyle Gibson ($16,200) at Gio Gonzalez ($15,400) would absorb much of my focus if I were to field a roster in this contest. Gibson records over a strikeout per inning. Gonzalez typically turns in a low-teens point total which is actually competitive in this slate. There’s long shot upside for 20 points. The Twins offense is ferocious against southpaws.

Following on a string of bad outings, J.A. Happ ($13,500) has an easy path to the win bonus.

Favorite Plays: Bieber, Gibson, Gonzalez, Happ

Stack Targets: Detwiler, BoJo, Happ, Dylan Bundy, Gonzalez, Reid-Foley, Allard

Late

Ok, Clayton Kershaw ($23,300) redux. Here’s what I said yesterday.

Kershaw ($22,900) is correctly labelled as the cock of the walk. Which is a phrase I once heard on TV. He’s visiting the sad sack Marlins. I can’t wait for 2023 when they’re kicking off their next rebuild. Kershaw seems to be in vintage form these days. Jordan Yamamoto Elieser Hernandez ($11,300) has had some moments, but this probably will not be one of them.

He costs slightly more today, probably because this is an uglier pitching slate. Kershaw has thrown between six and seven innings in every start this season. #WeirdFacts.

Cole Hamels ($18,100) is returning to his old stomping grounds to visit his friend Aaron Nola ($19,900). Both sides of this one seem excessively pricey. Nola is the best/only reasonable bet to outperform Kershaw tonight, but it’ll be an uphill battle against the Cubs at Citizen’s Bank Park. Hamels recently returned from the injured list, adding a little extra volatility to an already volatile situation.

I know the Tigers are dog poo, but how is Marco Gonzales the fourth-best priciest pitcher in the slate? Well, it’s because he’s on a hot streak including a drubbing of these same Tigers. He’ll run you $16,800 in what feels like a trap. But is the trap to use or avoid him?

Chris Archer ($16,000) seems to have recovered his mojo. My gut says the L.A. Trout are going to tear him a new one. Of course, I haven’t listened to my gut in ages. We have the heady brew of science to deliver unto us Process, the god of consistency. I’ve been trying, unsuccessfully, to pick on Dillon Peters ($12,700). The Pirates are actually pretty bad against left-handed pitchers. I might consider ignoring Peters’ homer prone tendencies and scary 5.26 FIP. Even having tipped my hand, I doubt any of you are overeager to try using more than one Trout tonight.

Dallas Keuchel ($14,000) sometimes throws seven innings. That’s all I’ve got. If you catch one of those long starts, you’ll be happy with this price. I actually think Steven Matz ($13,500) has quietly improved throughout the season, but I try to avoid targeting the Braves offense.

Dakota Hudson ($12,200) is homer prone, doesn’t record many strikeouts, and walks way too many. The Royals offense is a wasteland. Who is crappier?

Favorite Plays: Kershaw, Nola, Gonzales, Peters

Stack Targets: Hernandez, Hudson, Jackson, Peters

4. SaberSim Says…

Kershaw, Nola, Gonzales, Archer, and Hamels top the charts. The value plays are Nola, Gonzales, Kershaw, Matz, and Archer. If you want to roster hitters (you do), Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, Cody Bellinger, Daniel Vogelbach, and Freddie Freeman are the picks to click. Bargains include Ryan O’Hearn, Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Vogelbach, and Keon Broxton. Good luck with that mini Marlins stack…

5. Six

Only one roster used Kyle Seager yesterday.

Six hits is many hits.

Todd Frazier is ridiculously slow on this play.