The Daily Grind: Good Pitchers, Bad Matchups

I shall host a near-trade deadline chat to, uh, chat about trade deadline things. Today at 4:00pm ET.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Dante’s Son

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

When the Cincy stack spiked early last night, I figured my Reds-Dodgers combo meal was destined to lead the way. Instead, kidzero easily ran away with an otherwise low scoring contest. Caleb Smith, Chris Paddack, and a balanced offense fueled his 153.15 points. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have a 14-game brawl on FantasyDraft tonight. Please help recruit some new blood before FDraft notices we’re running a 10 entry overlay every day.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Cincinnati might get off to a slightly delayed start. Otherwise, it’s all clear.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Justin Verlander ($21,900) is visiting Shane Bieber ($20,200). Sadly, they offset their chances for a win bonus. For some reason, Verlander is a massive bargain – at least $2,500 too cheap. If you’re playing in the ace pool, Verlander is obviously the first choice. You’ll only turn to a very slightly overpriced Bieber if you’re feeling contrarian.

Charlie Morton ($21,200) has faced the Red Sox three times this year – all to solid or better results. While I still worry about the difficulty of the pairing, he’s shown virtually no sign of matchup-related slumps. He’s also under-respected in the fantasy and DFS community. His ownership should be fairly tame. This might be a better contrarian alternative to Verlander.

Now we’re into the second tier aces. Don’t be surprised if Noah Syndergaard ($19,700) is a healthy scratch tonight. If the Mets have any hopes at all of reaching a trade, then starting him tonight is unconscionable. A visit to Chicago (AL) is an encouraging assignment if he does pitch. But even then, he’s gotta be limited to a very tame pitch count, right?

Yu Darvish ($18,700) is back. Sort of. He’s shifted from throwing frequent disasterpieces to reliably posting mid-teens scores with upside for more. Unfortunately, he’s priced as if the upside is likelier than the mean. This is too much to pay for probably 15 points +/- 5. Especially against a streaking Cardinals team.

Jake Odorizzi ($17,900) has been on the “to avoid” list for awhile. Visiting Miami puts him firmly on my shortlist to use. I would have liked a lower price tag in deference to the many clunkers he’s tossed in the last 40 days, but [insert the saying about beggars]. The Twins offense is probably a little too thumptastic to use Zac Gallen ($16,000).

Chris Bassitt is fine. I don’t want to pay $17,800 to watch Christian Yelich hit homers off of him.

David Price ($17,700) looks like a relative bargain against a Rays offense that can struggle against left-handed pitching. They’re not bad, but a 94 wRC+ is hardly ferocious. Price himself has handled them well on multiple occasions.

The Pirates offense is mostly right-handed or limp-batted. Josh Bell is the primary exception. As such, Tanner Roark ($15,900) looks playable if unexciting. Like Syndergaard, Roark is on the trade block. Unlike Syndergaard, the Reds won’t ruin their franchise if he happens to injure himself. To the contrary, they probably have more to gain with a strong outing than they’re risking. Of course, there’s a risk he’ll be scratched too.

The Royals are the right assignment for using Sean Reid-Foley ($15,200). He has enough talent to throw over five innings with as many strikeouts. That puts him in range of returning value, although it’s quite a stretch.

Griffin Canning ($15,100) is in all ways a much better play. He’ll face a weaker opponent in the Tigers. His strikeout and walk rates are superior. Also, he should receive copious run support.

J.A. Happ ($14,400) is quite reasonably priced. He’ll host the Diamondbacks. Too bad about the Yankees bandbox. Speaking of, Tyler Beede ($13,700) would look positively juicy at this price if not for Citizen’s Bank Park. I still might use him. Beede’s opponent, Drew Smyly ($11,700), was magically good in his Phillies debut last week. Maybe they’ve found something.

Ariel Jurado ($11,000) and Joe Musgrove ($10,400) are playably priced if you need to go ultra-cheap. Just don’t expect much.

Favorite Plays: Verlander, Morton, Price, Canning, Jurado

Stack Targets: Reynaldo Lopez, Adrian Houser, Mike Montgomery, Drew VerHagen, Kyle Freeland, Taylor Clarke

4. SaberSim Says…

Verlander, Syndergaard, Odorizzi, Canning, and Price are the top-rated pitchers. Morton is… really far down the list. Musgrove, Smyly, Canning, Wainwright, and Odorizzi are the preferred bargains. On the hitter side, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Peter Alonso, Ronald Acuna, and Aaron Judge dominate the scene. Travis Shaw, Ryan O’Hearn, Nicky Lopez, Alonso, and Adam Duvall are running the Valuetown mafia.

5.Dante’s Son

What up Dante? I mean Bo.

He hasn’t paid me much, but Biggio is one of my most-used DFSers.

As I warned, Jon Gray is mysteriously good at Coors Field. I didn’t heed my own warning because… the Dodgers…