The Daily Grind: Friday Funhouse

Let’s just start this thing, shall we?

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. VRRRROOOOOOOM

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Max Kepler’s triple-blast was the key victory yesterday for djl131. His combination of Joey Lucchesi and Ariel Jurado outscored my pairing of Trevor Bauer and Patrick Corbin (no wonder I lost). Congrats and Leaderboard.

We’ve been running quite a few overlays lately. Let’s fill tonight’s 14-game contest so the good folks at FantasyDraft don’t notice we’re losing them money.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

All clear. The wind is still blowing in at Wrigley, but they’re not a part of the slate.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

As I’m sure you’ve noticed, I’m in the habit of listing players by price. I’m going to break that tradition today by jumping straight to the eighth-most expensive pitcher – Jacob deGrom ($18,000). What? Why? How? This is an utterly preposterous mispricing of the second best pitcher in the slate. He’s hosting the Rockies; a team with a 74 wRC+ on the road. He should receive copious run support opposite Antonio Senzatela. He’s a cool $4,000 underpriced.

Ok, back to standard operating procedures. Gerrit Cole ($23,900) costs a mint for a roughly comparable-quality matchup. The only issue with Cole is squeezing in his price tag. He should slice through the Orioles lineup like melted butter (wait, that doesn’t work…).

Mike Soroka costs $22,400 purely because the Marlins are bad. It’s still far to expensive in my opinion – perhaps $1,500 to $2,000 over-priced. That said, for a pitcher with a very brief major league track record, he feels like an awfully safe pick.

Clayton Kershaw ($21,300) may not be Clayton Kershaw anymore, but he’s still a top 15 or so pitcher visiting spacious Oracle Park and the laughably terrible Giants offense. His opponent, Drew Pomeranz has something like a 21.50 ERA in 10 starts.

You should be wary about rostering Matthew Boyd ($20,500) at this price. He’s only viable as a contrarian pick. The potent Twins offense is likely to put up a big fly or three.

The hell is Lance Lynn ($18,900) doing here?

Domingo German ($18,400) is more expensive than deGrom which on the face of it is absurd. The only thing pointing in German’s favor is that his ownership could be roughly one-fifth that of deGrom (just a guess). A visit to Cleveland is relatively favorable for the Yankees youngster. Zach Plesac ($13,800) is modestly interesting as a bargain play. As a northpaw changeup specialist, he can make full use of Progressive Field’s park factors.

Andrew Heaney ($18,000) gets a rematch against the Mariners. He shoved last time out. To date, he has 18 strikeouts in 11 innings. His velocity is (barely) at a career high. In short, he appears to be fully healthy. Thus far, he’s mostly scratched his changeup in favor of a sinker-slurve approach.

Brandon Woodruff ($15,100) is a strikeout machine who is otherwise difficult to predict. The Pirates piled on 10 runs against him in his most recent outing. He’ll face them again – this time at homer happy Miller Park. Of the mid-tier options, this is the obvious pick for “most likely to top the aces.”

Other viable mid-tier guys include Zach Eflin ($16,700), Marcus Stroman ($16,200), and Rick Porcello ($14,000). Eflin hosts the Reds, Stroman’s at home against the DBacks, and the Rays are visiting Porcello.

The very cheapest pitcher in the slate is Homer Bailey ($9,300). I’m not at all convinced he’s anywhere near the worst pitcher. He’s certainly bad, but he should also be expected to record about a strikeout per inning against the punch out prone White Sox. Walks have plagued Bailey this year, but that’s unlikely to be an issue tonight. Home runs are liable to still be a problem despite the calming effects of Kauffman Stadium.

Favorite Plays: deGrom, Kershaw, Heaney, Woodruff, Bailey

Stack Targets: Senzatela, Gabriel Ynoa, Jose Urena, Pomeranz, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Rookie Davis, Nick Margevicius, Tyler Mahle, Erick Fedde

4. SaberSim Says…

The robot overlords agree with my assessment of deGrom. Cole is second-best followed by Kershaw, Heaney, and Woodruff. Hey! That’s pretty close to my favorites list! Values include deGrom, Woodruff, Bailey, Cole, and Heaney. There’s my other favorite play!

Austin Meadows, Christian Yelich, J.D. Martinez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Mike Trout are the top-rated players. I wonder if perhaps the simulator is just a tad too bullish about Vladito. Danny Jansen, Travis Shaw, Jack Mayfield, Rowdy Tellez, and Vladito are the best values.

5.VRRRROOOOOOOM

Screw the catch, I’m here for this swing.

Almost too nonchalant.

Not quite as athletic as Marisnick.

VRRRROOOOOOOM