The Daily Grind: Evidence of an Enjoyable Changeup

I usually write some words here at the top of the article. I learned over the offseason that google thinks you’re a bot if you use the same introduction twice.

AGENDA

1. All Hail Cesar
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Fade Fade Fade
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. All Hail Cesar

I found myself fascinated by the return of Cesar Valdez. I even picked up a share in a dynasty league (purely to hang out on my bench). While his stat line wasn’t impressive – four innings, four strikeouts, two walks, five hits, and three runs – he was entertaining to watch. As expected, the command was plus. His 88 mph fastball was a secondary offering. The majority of his pitches were changeups. Here’s Valdez using one to strike out a Big Bat.

I’m forced to conclude that Valdez isn’t a fantasy or even a real world asset. However, the story is fun as is the changeup.

2. Weather Reports

There’s just enough chance for rain in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati to be wary. It looks like storms should roll out of the Northeast by 8:00pm. Texas is due for some late storms if the game runs long.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: It’s a full 15 game contest tonight. Prepare to be overwhelmed with choices. The acefolk include Jon Lester at Cincinnati, Jacob deGrom hosting the Nationals, Corey Kluber visiting the Pale Hose, Justin Verlander at Target Field, and Johnny Cueto drinking Coors Field. The Reds like to run which dampers Lester’s visit to Cincy. And y’all know to think twice about Cueto with altitude. deGrom is my favorite of the batch.

Plenty of other playable pitchers are available. Cole Hamels occasionally twirls gems. He’s a frequent quality starter which fits well with FanDuel’s new scoring. Also on the QS bandwagon are Tanner Roark, Jose Quintana, Jeremy Hellickson, and Bartolo Colon. Roark has to overcome deGrom to earn a victory. Strangely, Quintana has struggled with command after a masterful WBC. Hellickson and Colon face each other. They offer solid, uninspired production.

Digging deeper, Wily Peralta has a sub-3.00 ERA since returning from a mid-2016 demotion. I still think he’s a reliever. To quote George Martin, regression is coming. If you’re a Peralta truther, the Cardinals offense is mighty chilly.

Dylan Bundy has already handled the Red Sox once. However, it was only a 23 point outing. I worry a second look will lead to some crooked numbers. While Bundy has pitched superbly through three starts, two of those were against a brutally performing Blue Jays roster.

I don’t like targeting the Mariners offense. The top of the lineup is brutishly effective while the bottom is filled with high variance speedsters. Even if a pitcher solves the boppers, they could get bad lucked to death by the rabbits. In any case, Sean Manaea has the ability to shut down an offense over seven innings. I suspect he’ll be a frustrating asset for DFS participants, the kind who frequently has 9/10ths of a superb outing. It’s the remaining 1/10th that’ll kill ya.

Stack Targets: Tim Adleman, Tyler Glasnow, Mat Latos, Alex Meyer, Nate Karns, Trevor Cahill, Mike Fiers, Tyler Chatwood, Taijuan Walker, Hisashi Iwakuma, Adam Wainwright, Adam Conley

4. Fade Fade Fade

Stars: When it comes to pitchers, Coors Field (rightly) scares people. Cueto has been largely unfazed when visiting Colorado. In 37 innings, he’s posted a 2.43 ERA with 28 strikeouts and only three home runs. I know I’m considering him. For what it’s worth, SaberSim thinks I’m an idiot.

Injuries, slumpiness, and alternatives could lead would-be Miguel Cabrera owners to look elsewhere. He’s facing a mid-tier southpaw.

My bet for forgotten shortstop is either Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, or Xander Bogaerts. Or maybe all three? This is a hard game we play.

Bargains: Between a slow start and some very shiny options, Jonathan Lucroy may fall through the cracks tonight. It’s costs only $3,000 to own my preseason vote for best offensive catcher in baseball.

Remember when my colleagues compared Matt Carpenter to David Ortiz? He’s only $2,900 at Miller Park. Jonathan Villar is the same super cheap price.

5. SaberSim Says…

deGrom, Verlander, Kluber, Lester, and Alex Wood garner top honors tonight. Wood’s ranking is built off a faulty innings projection. If he pitches beyond the fifth inning, we should all bow down to SaberSim. Anthony Rizzo, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Cabrera, and Buster Posey top the charts tonight.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Welcome back to the leaderboard fourseasons. He had a top 10 finish last season. Yesterday marked his first win of the year, courtesy of Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, and Austin Hedges. It was a low scoring affair last night – even the victor had four players combine for just nine points. Leaderboard.

We’ll return to FanDuel for our daily contest.