The Daily Grind: Eovaldi, Holland, Johnson, Jaso

Agenda

1. Daily DFS
2. GB / FB Splits
3. SaberSim Hi/Lo
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Johnson, Nova, Jaso, DeShields
5. Factor Grid

1. Daily DFS – Eovaldi, Holland

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Our four early games include the top two pitchers of the day. David Price has a tough matchup against the Orioles, but he’s extremely likely to earn a win. He’s opposed by Mike Wright who is on a 60 pitch limit. Jake Arrieta is less certain to win, but I expect him to otherwise outperform Price.

Nathan Eovaldi is a solid alternative against the anemic-against-righties Rays. Eovaldi continues to walk more batters than I’d like to see, but he’s pitched reasonably well in recent weeks. He’s averaged 12.3 points per start over his last seven outings. He could keep it up today. The Yankees should easily defeat Matt Moore, but he is the kind of pitcher who can be effectively wild.

If you prefer a high risk, high reward play, John Lamb is the cheapest pitcher in the slate. With over a strikeout per inning, a studly performance is always a possibility.

Late: Felix Hernandez bounced back in his most recent start after two flubbed games. He’s the best and safest ace in the late slate with Oakland on the other side of the matchup. Alternatives like Danny Salazar (Tigers) and Tyson Ross (Dodgers) aren’t nearly as attractive. Or expensive.

Derek Holland was in top form last week against a tough Orioles lineup. He has another challenging matchup against the Angels. The elite command and control guy is another high risk, high reward pick. It (probably) all comes down to avoiding home runs.

Bartolo Colon isn’t a popular DFS play, but he should pitch reasonably well against the Marlins.

Stack Targets: Moore, Wright., Matt Garza, Lamb, Robbie Ray, Alec Asher, Wade Miley, Keyvius Sampson, Alfredo Simon, Ervin Santana, Brad Hand, Jake Peavy, Chad Bettis, Jered Weaver

2. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

James McCann, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez v Danny Salazar
Alex Rodriguez v Matt Moore
Addison Russell, David Ross, Austin Jackson, Dexter Fowler v Robbie Ray
Russell Martin v Wei-Yin Chen
Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks v Lance McCullers
Joc Pederson v Tyson Ross
Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia v Danny Duffy
Rougned Odor, Will Venable v Jered Weaver

Also Jedd Gyorko v Brett Anderson.

3. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: I’m not sure what SaberSim sees in Keyvius Sampson. Presumably the same thing it sees in Mike Foltynewicz – strikeouts. SaberSim lists Sampson as throwing over six innings with close to six strikeouts and a 40 percent chance to win. However, he’s failed to pitch more than four innings in his last three starts. In the process, he allowed 26 hits, six walks, and 14 runs in 11 innings. I project fewer than five innings with a 4.50 ERA or worse. He’ll be lucky to post five FanDuel points in my opinion.

Right: Wade Miley is listed as the fourth best pitcher on a day of strong pitching projections. He’s opposed by fantasy dud Alec Asher. I don’t entirely agree with ranking Miley ahead of Felix Hernandez and a few others, but I could see him earning an easy win. From there, he just needs to whittle together a quality start with five strikeouts. Unfortunately, the Red Sox game in unavailable on FanDuel.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Johnson, Nova, Jaso, DeShields

Pitchers to Start: It’s a good day for streaming. There are better picks on the board, but let’s talk about Erik Johnson. He was one of my 2014 bold predictions. I thought he would be the best non-Chris Sale in the White Sox rotation. A three mph drop in velocity quickly shot my prediction in the head. He scuffled through five major league starts. Then Triple-A hitters had their way with him over another 20 starts.

This year, Johnson appears to have recovered his stuff. He’s posted 9.23 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, and a 2.37 ERA over 123.2 innings. I expect about 8.00 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, and a 3.50 ERA in the bigs. A matchup with Johnny Cueto and the Royals is less than ideal.

Also consider: Justin Verlander, Steven Matz, Jerad Eickhoff, Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Ross

Pitchers to Exploit: I was tempted to list Ivan Nova as a guy to start. As we already discussed, the Rays do poorly against right-handed pitching. However, I worry they have just enough left-handed bats to take advantage of the ballpark.

Also consider: Chris Tillman, Mark Buehrle, Cody Anderson, Michael Lorenzen, Chris Narveson, Manny Banuelos, Rubby de la Rosa, Colby Lewis, Felix Doubront, Yohan Flande

Hitters (power): John Jaso is my favorite DFS sleeper. He consistently costs $2,200 on FanDuel despite producing at a $3,300 level. Traditional fantasy owners have been keener about rostering him. He’s not a typical source of home runs, but the stadium definitely works in his favor.

Also consider: Steve Pearce, Jonathan Schoop, Scooter Gennett, Khris Davis, Michael Cuddyer, Juan Uribe, Darin Ruf, Jeff Francoeur, Aaron Altherr, Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos, David Murphy, C.J. Cron, Franklin Gutierrez

Hitters (speed): Delino DeShields is still hitting leadoff for the Rangers. He’s opposed by Hector Santiago. The Angels starter has scuffled recently.

Also consider: Cesar Hernandez, Darnell Sweeney, Ender Inciarte

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Rain ruined the day in Cincinnati yesterday despite no sign of risk in the morning. Only the Cubs have a (brief) storm risk today, but things can change as we approach game time.

The Link.

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