The Daily Grind: Eleven Games of Destiny

Welcome to the weekend Grind. Prices listed are for FanDuel

AGENDA

1. Weather Reports
2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
3. Hitters to Use
4. SaberSim Says…

1. Weather Reports

Storms could ruin your day in Cleveland, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. The latter game is the lone night contest so you weren’t going to be using it anyway.

2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

FanDuel is being strange about the slates. You can opt to play the “main” which unnecessarily excludes games in Colorado, Los Angeles, San Francisco. Or you can play an “all day” contest with everything.

Main Slate: If we’re to ignore those left coast games, then we’re left without an ace. The Los Angeles game is especially ace-ish with Jon Lester versus Clayton Kershaw. That’s a promising matchup.

In the early afternoon, our top options are Rick Porcello hosting the Mariners, the Athletics at Michael Pineda, and Lance McCullers at home against the Orioles. Despite a 4.35 ERA, Rick Porcello has superb peripherals. He’s inducing more whiffs than ever. I consider him one of the top buy low assets in the league. A .354 BABIP and elevated home run rate are to blame for his ERA.

I warn you every week about McCullers. His most recent outing was a great example. He pitched just five innings despite allowing only one hit and two walks with five strikeouts. He’s a high effort pitcher who has yet to figure out how to trade a few strikeouts for easy early count outs. Chris Sale used to be like this.

Some of you think Michael Pineda is having his break out season. I’m not seeing it. Yeah, sure, the 3.35 ERA finally lines up with the peripherals. He’s still relying heavily on a bad fastball and an elite slider. Put him in relief and he could challenge Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, and Kenley Jansen for top reliever status. As a starter, he’s a 4.00 ERA guy. Any individual outings always comes with a low floor and an insane ceiling.

Pineda is opposed by Andrew Triggs. The righty has been a steady source of production, although it’s always risky to depend upon an unestablished player to remain stable. An Oakland stack including Triggs is a sneaky contrarian play today.

If you’re digging deeper, Joe Ross is facing just about the only team against whom I’d recommend him – the Padres. They’re extremely strikeout prone and all-around bad. Scott Feldman has thrown a couple random 52 point totals. The Phillies offense is known to roll over – especially the Sunday crew.

Stack Targets: Kyle Gibson, Alec Asher, Christian Bergman, Joe Biagini, Jhoulys Chacin, Zach Eflin, Andrew Cashner, Jose Urena, Pat Corbin, Jordan Zimmermann

3. Hitters to Use

Evan Gattis, Jose Altuve, George Springer, and the rest of the Astros are opposed by mediocre reliever Alec Asher. That should be interesting. It’s also another reason to use McCullers.

Feldman is exactly the sort of mediocre ground ball pitcher against whom Tommy Joseph thrives. Yesterday, for the second time in three days, he provided a crucial home run and a walkoff hit. Other Phillies are usable too.

Paul Goldschmidt at Miller Park is completely unfair. Not that Chase Field is pitcher friendly. Lamb goes well with Gold.

Alex Cobb occasionally makes mistakes over the plate. He’ll try to throw a tempting split-change and accidentally hang it. Any such mistake versus Miguel Sano could break Target Field.

I like Trea Turner today because the Padres have proven to be semi-prone to stolen bases. If he reaches, multiple swipes seem likely. Bryce Harper won’t steal, but he could go bomb diggity. Most Nationals are viable versus Chacin.

J.D. Martinez is in full out mash mode. He’s already hammered seven in 60 plate appearances – a pace of 75 over a full season. He’s also posted a 23.3 percent walk rate.

4. SaberSim Says…

McCullers, Pineda, Matt Shoemaker, Ross, and Porcello are the top rated pitchers today. They mostly have really low point projections. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Bryce Harper are the preferred hitters around which to build. They’re OK.