The Daily Grind: Eickhoff, Severino, Uribe, Ichiro

Agenda

1. An Explanation
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Severino, Heaney, Uribe, Ichiro
6. Factor Grid

1. An Explanation

I’m frequently asked to provide GB/FB splits by handedness. Unfortunately, doing so would split sample size buckets too small. As it is, the GB/FB splits aren’t often significant. We’re using them the same way we would have used J.D. Martinez’s 2014 numbers last June. Maybe there’s something there. Maybe it means something. I provide these numbers (with the help of Jeff Zimmerman) so you can try to scrape some value from the one place nobody else is looking.

Why are the samples so small? Unlike handedness splits, not every pitcher is a ground ball or fly ball guy. This year, roughly 40 percent of them fall in between. We’re already starting with a small sample. Then you’ll also notice that many of the names on our list aren’t long time veterans. When an Addison Russell shows up, we’re really just making an educated guess.

My advice is to treat GB/FB and handedness as two separate factors. Yesterday when Xander Bogaerts was listed against Danny Duffy, he had the platoon advantage (.850 OPS) and a fly ball pitcher (.772 OPS). The interaction of the two factors should produce an expectation north of the better number. In this case, I’d look at Bogaerts as a .900 OPS hitter.

2. Daily DFS – Eickhoff

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: As is often the case, the Cubs stand alone. With the Braves. Because it takes two the tango.

Late: That leaves us with 14 games in the evening slate. Aces abound – six in total. The best is Chris Sale against the Mariners. After a couple shaky outings, he’s coming off one of his best performances of the year. Madison Bumgarner also has a very nice matchup with the Pirates. David Price, Johnny Cueto, Felix Hernandez, and Carlos Carrasco round out the top tier picks. Right below them, you’ll find Gio Gonzalez, John Lackey, and Masahiro Tanaka. The trio could easily pace the best performances of the day.

Jerad Eickhoff is $3,000 on FanDuel. He doesn’t have to do very much to justify that price. Considering he profiles as a 7.50 K/9, 2.50 BB/9 pitcher, he’s a good bet to return value against the Marlins. Whether you can roster enough hitters to make up the difference is another matter. On FanDuel, you might have to pay $700 per point for Sale compared to $400 per point for Eickhoff. However, hitters usually cost over $1,000 per point. You’ll have to feel very good about some high priced bats.

Stack Targets: Tommy Milone, Wei-Yin Chen, Jeff Locke, Colby Lewis, Rubby de la Rosa, David Holmberg, Eickhoff, Kendry Flores, Mike Fiers, Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

It’s a short list today. Here are the handful of stand outs.

Justin Bour v Aaron Harang
James McCann, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez v Colby Lewis
Billy Butler v Drew Smyly
Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado v Tommy Milone

4. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: SaberSim has been making me look foolish. Yesterday, Brad Hand threw six innings of one run ball with five strikeouts. He earned the win. Overall, the performance was worth 14 FanDuel points from the bargain bin. Before you get too excited, SaberSim (and I) also thought Nick Tropeano would pitch well. Whoops.

I’ve noticed the projections update throughout the day which leads me to believe that Vegas lines and/or weather are being incorporated. Nothing else changes on game day. The one area where I find “errors” is the innings projection. Today, Kendry Flores is projected to tie David Price for the most innings thrown (7.13 IP). He’s one of nine pitchers projected for about seven innings. He’s been pitching out of the bullpen recently. It just doesn’t seem possible. Eickhoff has a better chance to reach that threshold, but it’s still very low. These are two young pitchers without overwhelming stuff. Even against a bad offense, it’s hard to project such solid performance.

Right: SaberSim wants you to pick players in Colorado today. There’s nothing wrong with that idea. I’m a little hesitant to target Jon Gray. His repertoire is well-suited to Coors. However, he won’t pitch deep into the game even if he’s dominating. The Rockies bullpen is a nightmare.

I also agree with Chris Sale as the top pitcher today, but again, that’s an easy one. Digging a little deeper, Gio Gonzalez is third on the pitcher list. I don’t often target Gonzalez due to rampant inconsistency and a high price tag. Today is an exception. The gutted Brewers offense has few weapons against left-handed pitching. He could go all the way.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Severino, Heaney, Uribe, Ichiro

Pitchers to Start: In three starts, Luis Severino has a 3.18 ERA with 9.53 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Nothing screams fluke in his profile. The biggest warning sign is a merely decent 8.5 percent swinging strike rate. The Indians offense has been reduced to Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana. Even though the game is at Yankee Stadium, it’s a good matchup for Severino.

Also consider: Dan Haren, Joe Ross, Vidal Nuno

Pitchers to Exploit: There are roughly two scenarios in which I would recommend targeting Andrew Heaney. A matchup against the Blue Jays is one of them. They can mash any pitcher, but they’re especially potent against southpaws. We all know the numbers. Now we have to see if Heaney can scrape through the outing.

Also consider: Williams Perez, Randy Wolf, Matt Barnes, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Hellickson, Anthony DeSclafani, Aaron Harang, Justin Nicolino, Jon Niese, Chris Rusin

Hitters (power): It’s easy to forget about Juan Uribe. The utility fielder has a date with Coors tomorrow against a left-handed starter. Rusin is exploitable as is the Rockies bullpen. Uribe has a modest .247/.308/.400 line on the season, but the power numbers could improve dramatically tomorrow.

Also consider: Chris Colabello, Stephen Piscotty, Darin Ruf, Eugenio Suarez, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Chris Coghlan

Hitters (speed): Ichiro Suzuki entered the season buried behind Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna. Now he plays every day. While he isn’t the star of ages past, he still steals bases. He’s piled up a few multi-hit games recently too. Ichiro, 41, is 79 hits from 3,000. He won’t reach that milestone this season, but you have to imagine he’ll stick around next year. It’s free publicity for a second division club.

Also consider: Tyler Saladino, Ender Inciarte, Jarrod Dyson, Delino Deshields

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Boston has a 65 percent chance for storms tonight. Be aware.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.