The Daily Grind: Eickhoff, Hill, Heston, Parker

Agenda

1. Desperation
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Heston, Williams, Parker, Venable
6. Factor Grid

1. Desperation

We’re down to last minute theatrics. Dropping Miguel Cabrera for Danny Valencia. Carlos Carrasco for Henry Owens. Dellin Betances for Trevor Gott. Waiver moves over these last few days can look ugly. Now is not the time to let sentiment or projections stand in your way.

Your position will determine whether you should manage your floor or throw a series of hail marys (what’s the plural of hail mary? Hail mari?). In general, you want hitters in the top half of the lineup who will play. At this point, a Kelby Tomlinson is more likely to produce than a Javier Baez. Any pitcher can do well in a single matchup which is why I keep finding myself using Jerad Eickhoff. Ideally, you’ll find a league average hurler facing an average or worse offense. Avoid the dumpster fires.

Good luck.

2. Daily DFS – Eickhoff, Hill, Corbin

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Four games are early. There are no aces available. Jason Hammel and Brett Anderson are easily the best pitchers. They both rarely outlast the sixth inning. Hammel’s even having trouble throwing more than five frames.

Eickhoff actually has the highest average score of the early hurlers. He’s twice faced the Mets and averaged 8.5 points in those outings. His last three starts have been strong seven inning affairs. Now that I look closer, Eickhoff might be the most likely to last beyond six innings. The Mets offense is solid. I’m expecting seven innings, three runs, and six strikeouts with a range of seven to 16 FanDuel points. He’s opposed by reliever Sean Gilmartin.

Late: Seven of the 12 games are late. The Padres game starts at 6:40 ET and is not included. Stephen Strasburg is coming off four straight gems. If you want to build a bargain lineup, Strasburg is an easy bet for the top score of the evening. He’s opposed by the Braves.

Rich Hill is certainly enticing. I hate taking pitchers at Yankee Stadium, but at least he’s left-handed. He’s struck out 10 batters in each of his three starts. He handled the lefty mashing Rays and Blue Jays. The Orioles have a decent offense too. On a matchup level, there’s no reason he can’t repeat his success tonight. I still worry about getting stuck with a stinker, but his $7,800 price on FanDuel looks like a steal.

Speaking of steals, Patrick Corbin costs just $6,900 despite a wonderful matchup with the Rockies at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks should supply plenty of run support. The Rockies have the worst offense against left-handed pitching (and on the road). Every factor points in Corbin’s favor. And honestly, he’s probably no more risky than Hill even though he has a couple blow ups in the recent past.

Stack Targets: Drew Hutchison, Tyler Wilson, Sean Gilmartin, John Lamb, CC Sabathia, Ryan Weber, John Danks, David Hale

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

The list is a little thin today. C’est la vie.

Brayan Pena, Joey Votto v Jason Hammel
Joc Pederson v Tim Hudson
Chris Colabello, Jose Bautista
Marlon Byrd v Brett Anderson
Jedd Gyorko v Taylor Jungmann
Adam Lind v Ian Kennedy

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim thinks Ian Kennedy is the third best pitcher today. It’s a solid insight given his easy matchup with a hamstrung Brewers offense. Gilmartin is ranked fourth. Expect that to change later in the day. His longest outing of the season went 3.1 innings. If he tosses more than four frames tonight, I’ll be shocked. That just about guarantees one of the worst scores no matter how well he pitches.

For hitters, go to Texas where good weather conditions should help the ball to fly. Also, SaberSim considers Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Adrian Beltre, and Mike Napoli to be the top four hitters. With the likelihood that Napoli will be pinch hit after three plate appearances, I might not prioritize that pick. I still not-so-secretly like C.J. Cron more than Pujols right now. Cron has hit well since he was recalled while Pujols is dealing with an injury. Also, Cron costs much less to roster.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Heston, Williams, Parker, Venable

Pitchers to Start: Of the five pitchers I’ve listed to start, Chris Heston is the very least interesting. It just so happens that hes opposed by Kyle Kendrick. He’s very likely to notch a victory. You need those, right? The other matchups are much more balanced.

Also consider: Wei-Yin Chen, Henry Owens, Josh Tomlin, Roenis Elias

Pitchers to Exploit: You should be able to find some Marlins to use against Jerome Williams. Any old Marlin will do. He hasn’t started since August 25 so it may be a short outing. Williams being who he is (i.e. a 33-year-old journeyman), I could picture the Phillies letting him toss six frames. Williams has struggled with home runs and BABIP this season.

Also consider: Justin Nicolino, Keyvius Sampson, Jerad Weaver, Martin Perez, Alfredo Simon, Ariel Pena, Rubby de la Rosa, Sean Nolin, Casey Kelly, Kendrick

Hitters (power): Jarrett Parker isn’t the best choice among the myriad available hitters, but he’s certainly a trendy one. With six home runs in 43 plate appearances, he’s showing off the power stroke. The cracks in the foundation are easy to spot. His 44.2 percent strikeout rate is especially gruesome. Against a hittable righty like Kendrick, Parker should put balls in play. Maybe he’ll even mash another bomb.

Also consider: Ben Paulsen, Justin Morneau, Jedd Gyorko, Chase Utley, Andre Ethier, Mark Canha, Franklin Gutierrez, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Coghlan, Cron, Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer, Darin Ruf, Jeff Francoeur, Aaron Altherr, Cameron Rupp, Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich, J.T. Realmuto, Chris Young

Hitters (speed): Will Venable will hopefully bat leadoff against Weaver. I don’t really foresee a stolen base, but he should at least have an opportunity or two.

Also consider: Kelby Tomlinson, Angel Pagan, Jimmy Rollins, Jon Jay (0 SB in 2015), Ichiro Suzuki

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Braves game is at risk tonight. I wouldn’t worry too much about the other modest risks. Do monitor them.

The Link.

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