The Daily Grind: Eaton, Salazar, Chi-Chi

Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Eaton
2. Daily DFS – Salazar, Heaney
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – ERod, Chi-Chi, Kike, Miller
5. Factor Grid

1. Farnsworth on Eaton

Adam Eaton is a player I’ve hyped with some consistency all season. For the first time in his career, he’s hit 10 home runs. Given that he’s also a high OBP hitter with 11 stolen bases, it looks like a tidy skill set. Part of his success this season has come from a sharp decline in ground ball rate – from 60 percent to 48 percent.

I asked friend of the column Dan Farnsworth to comment on Eaton’s swing with special attention on swing plane and future ground ball rates. We want to know if the change in batted ball profile is sustainable. Here’s what he had to say:

He’s doing a little better keeping his swing through the middle of the field, but no, I don’t see anything that makes me think he’s going to keep the ball off the ground. I’ve covered a few of his better games lately, and everything with his swing path is still flat and grounder/low line drive-oriented. It seems to me that he’s just been catching the bottom half of the ball more. I see extra base hits from him that don’t have the carry you see from guys with a different swing plane. He’s getting backspin on the ball, but not hitting it flush with consistency.

Given what we know about ground ball rates, a 12 percent decrease is probably at least partially real. However, the mechanics of that decline are uncertain. As Dan alludes, it’s possible Eaton is picking out better pitches for his swing. Can he continue doing this? It’s hard to say, but I’m less confident than I was yesterday.

2. Daily DFS – Salazar, Heaney

We have 10 games tonight, and rain only threatens the domed stadiums. There is a clear cut top choice among the pitchers – Gerrit Cole. The Pirates ace is at home against the Diamondbacks. Cole is in a bit of a rut, having exceeded 12 FanDuel points in only three of his last 10 starts. If you’re going to pay $10,200, you want 20 points out of your pitcher. Or at least 15. Cole has the talent to reward his owners, but it’s possible he’s feeling some late season fatigue.

At $9,000, Danny Salazar may be a superior pick for GPPs. He’s reached the 12 point threshold in five of his last 10 starts, but he’s also failed to clear the fifth inning three times. He reaches his 18 to 20 point ceiling as often as any non-Kershaw pitcher, but he also tosses a stinker a little too often to be considered “safe.” He’s pitching at Fenway today.

At one point, the White Sox had a 40-something wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They’re up to a 72 wRC+ which is to say that they’ve almost been adequate recently. Angels rookie Andrew Heaney is of some interest against the Sox. He has a 2.53 ERA on the season with 6.32 K/9 and 1.42 BB/9.

There is reason to expect all three rates to increase. He has a 3.99 xFIP, his whiff rate supports a higher strikeout rate, and his minor league walk rates are generally above 2.00 BB/9. Regression has been rude to him in his last three starts in which he’s allowed 20 hits, four walks, and nine strikeouts over 16.1 innings. He’s an affordable option at $7,100, but there is risk.

Stack Targets: Bryan Mitchell, Matt Barnes, Justin Nicolino, Carlos Rodon, Williams Perez, Colin Rea

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

One quarter of today’s picks are Red Sox. So while I picked Salazar as a savvy play today, here’s at least one reason to go another direction.

Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Alejandro De Aza, Brock Holt, and David Ortiz v Salazar
Rougned Odor v Taijuan Walker
Jimmy Paredes and Matt Wieters v Sonny Gray
Carlos Santana and Abraham Almonte v Barnes

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – ERod, Chi-Chi, Kike, Miller

Pitchers to Start: It’s a terrible day for streaming pitchers. Perhaps I could be more aggressive by mentioning Scott Feldman’s mediocrity as a positive or John Danks‘ decent recency. However, the only pitcher I’d roll the dice on is Eduardo Rodriguez. It’s a big gamble.

He’s had way too many meltdown outings – enough that I’d prefer for him to be in the minors. Statistically, he reminds me a little of a former Red Sox pitcher – Rubby de la Rosa. In both cases, there is enough talent to be an above average major league pitcher. Clearly, they also need to solve some problems with their overall game plan and execution. Rodriguez is opposed by the Indians.

Also consider: —

Pitchers to Exploit: By comparison, there is no shortage of exploits. Prospect Alex Gonzalez is back in the majors despite tepid results in the minors. In eight games earlier this year, Chi-Chi posted a 4.22 ERA with 3.49 K/9 and 4.41 BB/9. Not only is his control bad, he doesn’t have an out pitch. The Mariners should hammer him at Globe Life Park.

Also consider: CC Sabathia, Mike Pelfrey, Raisel Iglesias, Adam Conley, Tyler Cravy, Scott Feldman, David Hale, John Danks, Felix Doubront, Matt Wisler

Hitters (power): Enrique Hernandez is having a fantastic season with a .300/.352/.513 slash in 162 plate appearances. He’s also popped six home runs. His best work comes against left-handed pitchers against whom he has a .488 BABIP to go with a .414/.478/.793 line. He’ll line up versus Doubront.

Also consider: Scott Van Slyke, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Stephen Piscotty, Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan, Seth Smith, Ryan Raburn, Chris Johnson, Trevor Plouffe

Hitters (speed): Brad Miller has quietly accomplished what was expected of him last season when he became an overhyped sleeper. He’s hit nine home runs with 11 stolen bases to go with decent run production and a .253 average. Toss in multi-position eligibility, and he’s a great fantasy roster patch. He’ll face Chi-Chi.

Also consider: Will Venable

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

More dry baseball.

 

The Link.

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