The Daily Grind: Double Dipping

The Grind goes on and on and on and on and…

AGENDA

1. The Latest Double Dip
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…

1. The Latest Double Dip

I’m considering starting a new column called The Double Dip in which I only analyze players who hit two home runs on the previous day. Because somebody does it every. damn. day. It used to feel at least a little bit special. Anyway, here’s Ryon Healy.

Contact me if you fund my column.

And here’s a kid being an asshole. Children suck.

2. Weather Reports

The weather is not ideal today. Detroit, Baltimore, Atlanta, and Cincinnati are storm threats. I’ve listed those in order of risk. Detroit is very likely to play while there’s probably over a 50 percent chance that the Cincinnati game will be postponed. When will postpwned enter the lexicon? Now.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: It’s a 10 game contest including all four weather threats. Robbie Ray is the ace of the slate. Who thought we’d be saying that a year ago? I always liked Ray as somebody who could figure it out, but I assumed he wouldn’t. Most pitchers like Ray don’t. Figure it out, that is. Anyway, he’s opposed by the Phillies. One of these days, that lineup is going to start to click. Probably not today.

Jimmy Nelson is Plan B to Ray. He has a valuable matchup against the high strikeout, low run producing Padres. Nelson is getting a tad overhyped for who he is – a core pitcher on a hot streak. Even so, today is definitely the right day to stay on the bandwagon.

If you ignore an unusual home run rate, John Lackey has pitched fine. He’s visiting PNC Park which should help with those long balls – both because the park is large and the Pirates lineup isn’t all that powerful.

Should you insist upon reaching for a bargain, sometimes Trevor Bauer is really good. More often, he’s incredibly bad. A visit to Target Field offers quite a bit of volatility. He’s a GPP-only pick. It’s a really bad day to reach below $8,000 for a pitcher on FanDuel. Mike Foltynewicz versus Miami is the one exception.

Stack Targets: Bronson Arroyo, Ben Lively, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kyle Gibson, Buck Farmer, Bauer, Jacob Faria, Luis Perdomo, James Shields, Jose Urena, Joe Ross, J.A. Happ

Afternoon Slate: Only four games are in the afternoon slate. Yu Darvish is obviously the top pitcher, and his $9,900 isn’t even that bad. Unfortunately, that ensures he’ll be owned at a ludicrous rate. You have two choices, bet that no other pitcher surpasses him or play the contrarian.

A savvy contrarian will look to the Royals visiting the Angels. Honestly, I’m not sure which end of Jason Vargas or J.C. Ramirez will have the lower ownership. Both pitchers have similar projections against a weak offense at a pitcher friendly park. Vargas has obviously been the more consistent of the two which probably means Ramirez will be the proper contrarian pick.

In between disasters, Christian Bergman has made a few surprisingly strong starts. Facing an ace can help these mediocre types to step up their game. Actually, I usually pin this on the offense thinking they’ll have an easy win. In any case, if Bergman defeats Darvish, you’ll be off to a great start. It’s up to you to decide if you’re going to try to place or go for the GPP gold.

Stack Targets: Ty Blach, Tyler Chatwood, Bergman, Jharel Cotton, Luis Cessa

4. SaberSim Says…

Our neighborhood projection system says to use Jacob deGrom, Ray, Happ, Nelson, or Jameson Taillon. I worry about deGrom versus the Nationals, but perhaps this feeling will be shared by too many others. His ownership might be low. The White Sox have absolutely stomped on left-handed pitching. And while I don’t think it’s a sustainable stompage, Happ isn’t good enough to ignore the split. Taillon is whatever.

Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Turner, Jacob Lamb, and Manny Machado are the top rated hitters. After them, it’s a bunch of Dodgers at Arroyo. Too bad that game might not play.