The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 13

Agenda

1. Tuesday Chat
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Tuesday Chat

Today’s chat will take place at 4:00pm ET. This will mark the third to last chat of the regular season. I’m as yet uncertain if weekly chats will continue into the offseason – that’s kind of up to Eno. The link for the chat will be posted sometime around 3:00pm, I’m sure you can find it.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

I developed a new process about a month ago. It’s been profitable, but it’s also produced some of the worst scores I’ve ever seen. Like yesterday’s 59 (still only 18th of 20). But enough about me. Rotogut took home the gold, having spiked Carlos Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, and Daniel Descalso. Congrats! The leaderboard is updated.

Here is today’s 15 game monstrosity.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Noah Syndergaard is the runaway ace of the slate, although his matchup against the Nationals isn’t the easiest. Hot hand Ivan Nova draws the Phillies in a should-win game. At their respective DraftKings prices, I’d opt for Danny Duffy hosting the Oakland Athletics over Nova.

A few of these AL East games have interesting pitchers. Drew Pomeranz has lost his DFS shine since going to Boston. I’ve rarely recommended him, nor have I see other touts on the bandwagon. Pomeranz has a high variance matchup against the Orioles tonight. The potential for 10 strikeouts over six innings makes up for the danger of multiple home runs.

Second half Marcus Stroman is in cruise mode. He’s experienced an uptick in ground balls and strikeouts. The Rays recently had a decent game against Stroman, but they got away with 14 ground balls over six innings. Stroman has the necessary stuff and durability to toss eight innings.

Here’s where I point out that Robbie Ray is tasked with silencing a mostly left-handed Rockies lineup. Ray has held fellow lefties to a .296 wOBA with only two of his 19 home runs allowed. Of course, it’s not as if the Rockies are without right-handed threats. There’s still risk and reward in this gamble.

As I noted in yesterday’s Grind, the Dodgers are the worst good team against left-handed pitchers. CC Sabathia is left-handed. Crazy. The former Yankees ace doesn’t have the ceiling of Ray, and the floor is just as ugly. He could provide solid value as a second pitcher on DK.

Clayton Richard is listed at super bargain prices despite a 0.90 ERA as a start (3.50ish FIP). He’s starting at pitcher friendly AT&T Park against an merely solid offense. Richard is unlikely to induce more than four strikeouts, but he should keep everything on the ground. He’s a good pairing with Syndergaard.

Stack Targets: Alex Meyer, Alec Asher, Jake Esch, Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, Dylan Bundy, Jorge de la Rosa, Albert Suarez, Brad Peacock, Matt Garza, Drew Smyly, Matt Wisler, A.J. Griffin

4. SaberSim Observations

Well, so much for my clever love of Ray. Not only does SaberSim think he’s a better pick than Syndergaard, his projected score is practically an order of magnitude above Thor. The Mets ace is number two with Stroman, Dan Straily, and Pomeranz rounding out the top five. I’m always hesitant to use anybody at Great American Ballpark, but Straily does deserve legitimate considerations versus the strikeout prone Brewers.

Stacks include Trout, Red Sox, Reds, Pirates, Blue Jays, Braves, and Orioles.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Lefty Steven Brault draws the much-coveted Phillies matchup. Although Brault has a 3.38 ERA through five starts, his 5.35 xFIP tells a different story. Against just about any other lineup, he’d be listed as an exploit. From what I’ve seen, he is moderately deceptive with above average control and below average command. I’m reminded of early career J.A. Happ.

Also consider: Sean Manaea, Yordano Ventura, Joe Musgrove

Pitchers to Exploit: When Alex Cobb throws hanging splitters to the Blue Jays bashers, they’re going to travel far into the distance. I’m betting on three home runs for the Toronto bats.

Also consider: Luis Perdomo, Michael Pineda, Robert Gsellman, Jake Thompson, Tyler Duffey, Anibal Sanchez, Jeff Hoffman, Rubby de la Rosa

Hitters (power): With Adam Lind banged up, Dan Vogelbach should be in the daily lineup – even against left-handed pitching like Tyler Skaggs. The bad-bodied first baseman evokes memories of John Kruk. Even the swing looks like a dead ringer for Kruk’s, although there is a certain lack of explosiveness to it. If he can connect with major league heaters, Vogelbach profiles, as a high average, high OBP, moderate power triple threat.

Also consider: Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar, Franklin Gutierrez, Brandon Guyer, Justin Morneau, Melky Cabrera, Justin Bour, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp, Josh Bell, Matt Joyce, Andrew Toles

Hitters (speed): The Phillies want to take a good, long look at Roman Quinn in preparation for the 2017 season. The speedy outfielder popped a couple doubles last night – his second game in the majors. He also stole a base – his first of many. Quinn has a green light and should attempt another six to 10 swipes before the end of the season.

Also consider: Melvin Upton, Socrates Brito, Tim Anderson, Jose Peraza, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Angel Pagan, Denard Span

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.