The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 21

Agenda

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets
5. Factor Grid

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Congratulations go to my co-worker Justin Mason. I guess I should have copied his lineup since he basically told us what he was doing in yesterday’s Field of Streams podcast. The leaderboard is updated.

Today is split into three contest times. Let’s take advantage of the largest slate – the 4:10pm ET afternoon group – with a $2, 20 user FanDuel league. Here’s the link.

2. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The three game early slate includes J.A. Happ at Minnesota and a bunch of ugly matchups. The best of those ugly games include a Danny Duffy short start at U.S. Cellular Field and Adam Morgan versus the Braves. You can comfortably stack against any of them.

Stack Targets: Happ, Duffy, Morgan, Miguel Gonzalez, Williams Perez, Pat Dean

Afternoon: The Pirates game is a cancellation risk. You probably weren’t going to use Tyler Chatwood or Jon Niese, but you might have picked some hitters against them. Monitor accordingly. There are six other games in the slate with which to work.

None of the pitchers jump off the stat sheet. Felix Hernandez is still too pricey for the pitcher he’s become. Besides, I want nothing to do with most pitchers in Cincinnati, aka sea level Coors Field. Jacob deGrom and Masahiro Tanaka should generate plenty of interest today based on an ability to pitch deep into their starts.

Check out Drew Smyly’s last four starts – Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners, Blue Jays. Today he gets the Tigers. These are all incredibly difficult opponents. Smyly is a good pitcher, but I just can’t advocate using him against all those big lefty mashers.

Michael Fulmer has yet to produce much major league success. Actually, he’s yet to toss more than five innings. For that reason, he may not be the bargain for you. Then again, he’s opposed by a futile Rays lineup (against righties). If he can’t give six quality frames today, then he doesn’t belong in the majors. To be clear, I’m not convinced he belongs in the majors.

Stack Targets: Sean Manaea, John Lamb, Zach Davies, Fulmer, Robbie Ray, Mike Leake, Niese, Joe Kelly, Trevor Bauer, Chatwood

Late: Oh, I’ve found the juicy pitching matchups in the five game late slate. Jon Lester at AT&T Park is an easy pick. With Matt Cain tossing for the Giants, can Lester possibly lose? Well yes, it’s still baseball. But it’s unlikely.

Jose Fernandez is even ace-ier, but he has a tougher matchup versus the Nationals and Joe Ross. While I’m a Ross detractor – mostly because the repertoire screams reliever – he’s also a viable play tonight. This is looking like a primo pitching duel.

From a DFS perspective, Alex Wood and Kevin Gausman can be infuriating. Wood is visiting the Padres at Petco Park while Gausman has spacious Angels Stadium on his side versus the L.A. Trouts. With Matt Shoemaker starting for the Trouts, Gausman should receive ridiculous run support.

Stack Targets: Cain, Cesar Ramos, Cesar Vargas, Shoemaker, Mike Fiers

3. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim’s top five pitchers are Fernandez, deGrom, Wood, Lester, and…Fiers? Gausman is sixth, but Shoemaker is ranked eighth. I don’t know about some of these picks. The simulator thinks Fiers is likely to earn a win versus Ramos. While that’s probably true, I still foresee him allowing three plus runs over fewer than six innings.

The Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners, Red Sox, Twins, Cubs, and Dodgers all offer tasty stacks per SaberSim. I disagree with none of it.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: You have a few viable choices for the final day of the week. While I like Conley and Hendricks the most, they’re not good picks if you need a win. They face Max Scherzer and Madison Bumgarner. Win chasers should bet on one side of the Bettis-Nicasio matchup. Both the Pirates and Rockies have the potential to post crooked numbers so neither side is without risk. At least the game is at PNC Park.

Also consider: Adam Conley, Jerad Eickhoff, Chad Bettis, Juan Nicasio, Jesse Hahn, Kyle Hendricks

Pitchers to Exploit: The Mariners have plenty of freely available platoon bats, and Alfredo Simon is a disaster. Solve for X: Simon + Great American Ballpark + the Reds bullpen = X runs

My algebra is rusty, I think X=34?

Also consider: Wade Miley, Chase Anderson, Phil Hughes, Jered Weaver, Michael Pineda, Colin Rea

Hitters (power): Adam Duvall is swinging a hot bat. Be wary buying into his solid .273 average. I see him more as a .240/.290/.500 hitter – basically Evan Gattis without the pending catcher eligibility. His power numbers are helped by GABP, and he’ll have the platoon advantage versus Miley.

Also consider: Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Tommy Joseph, John Jaso, Justin Smoak, Chris Coghlan, Chase Utley

Hitters (speed): Assuming he gets in the lineup, Michael Taylor will have the platoon advantage in an otherwise difficult matchup. If you need stolen bases, you should scour your waiver wire for better choice. He does like to run when he reaches base.

Also consider: Michael Taylor, Jimmy Rollins, Joey Rickard

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.