The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 14

Agenda

1. MLB Standings Chatter
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. MLB Standings Chatter

The Chicago teams are dominating baseball with a combined 50-20 record. By comparison, the New York teams are 35-34. Three teams – the Orioles, Red Sox, and Nationals – have 22 wins. Three more – the Mets, Phillies, and Mariners – have 21 wins.

One of these doesn’t belong. In a rebuilding year, the Phillies are leaning on a surprisingly excellent rotation. They’re fourth best in baseball by WAR. Their bullpen has been good too, although a terrible first week of the season hides that fact.

Offense is a serious problem in Philadelphia, and the roster reflects the issue. The club swapped in hot hitting Tommy Joseph for ice cold lefty masher Darin Ruf. Joseph will initially fill a platoon role, but he could eventually take time from Ryan Howard.

Even with Ruf replaced, the club basically has a 22-man roster. Emmanuel Burriss (28 PA) rarely plays, and Rule 5 pick Tyler Goeddel has only 48 terrible plate appearances (.170/.170/.234). The club forgets reliever Colton Murray is on the roster for weeks at a time.

The Phillies were already likely to regress in the coming months. If they’re also leaving themselves with a short roster, the plunge will only be more dramatic. The Braves had a similar start to their season in 2015. They didn’t let a few wins scare them away from making rebuilding moves. For the Phillies, that means eventual swaps of Jeremy Hellickson, David Hernandez, and Carlos Ruiz. In the meantime, they could do themselves a favor and round out the roster.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

8MileAllstars used the same pitching combination as I did – Chris Sale and Junior Guerra. However, he outkicked me with picks of Bryce Harper and Eduardo Nunez. The leaderboard is updated.

The Daily Grind Invitational returns to FanDuel today for the 10 game evening slate. As always, it’s $2 and 20 users.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The brand name pitchers are in the six game early slate. You have your pick of Jake Arrieta, Stepen Strasburg, and Corey Kluber. Jose Quintana is also pitching, although I’m always wary of Yankee Stadium.

Matt Andriese is only $5,900 on FanDuel despite a solid matchup at home against a weak Athletics offense. Andriese is a command and control guy whose minor league strikeout rates don’t translate to the majors. Still, he’s capable of pitching seven innings with four or five strikeouts and a win. The upside looks something like 48 points for the cost of an expensive hitter.

There are seven other pitchers in the time slot. Here is a list of them…

Stack Targets: Kendall Graveman, Jeff Locke, Ivan Nova, Justin Nicolino, Ervin Santana, Clay Buchholz, Collin McHugh

Late: Picking a pitcher for the 10 game late slate is a challenge. Rain could interfere with Tanner Roark’s start against the Marlins, and I worry about his matchup against Giancarlo Stanton. Ground ball pitchers tend to make bad pairings with elite power bats.

Carlos Martinez would look like a good option if there weren’t lingering concerns about his respiratory ailment/arm/whatever is actually wrong. As the most expensive pitcher in the slate, I’m leaning towards using a healthier pitcher. It’s not like the Dodgers are going to roll over.

Aaron Nola should be extremely popular at home against the Reds. You’re aiming for seven innings, seven strikeouts, and a win (54 FD points). I don’t foresee any of the pitchers in this time slot breaking the 60 point barrier.

Hisashi Iwakuma should be in line for an easy win against the Trouts and Jhoulys Chacin. Speaking of easy wins, Patrick Corbin has a gimme versus the Giants and Jake Peavy. In both cases, the win is likely but an actual strong outing is less certain.

Dillon Gee should be cleared for six innings and an auto-win against Triple-A Gwinnett. If the Royals don’t beat Mike Foltynewicz, they should be relegated to Triple-A for the rest of the season.

Stack Targets: Luis Perdomo, Eddie Butler, Logan Verrett, Peavy, Tim Adleman, Chacin, Wily Peralta, Foltynewicz, Mike Wright, Anibal Sanchez, Colby Lewis

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim and I are mostly in agreement over the day’s pitchers. The simulator doesn’t think Peavy will be a complete pushover today. Otherwise, it matches my recommendations.

Eight of the top nine hitters for the day are at Coors. I’ve already decided to fade, but I might change my mind now. The Brewers, Blue Jays, Nationals, Red Sox, and Orioles are the other quality stacks.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: While none of the targets qualify as “safe,” you have a lot of options to round out the H2H week. Trevor Bauer comes with plenty of downside in a matchup against the Twins. He could walk five guys or get shelled by Byung-ho Park and Miguel Sano. However, I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll get six or seven strong innings with upwards of 10 strikeouts.

Also consider: Tyler Duffey, Matt Moore, Kevin Gausman, Dan Straily, Adam Morgan, Matt Wisler, Danny Duffy, Rubby de la Rosa, Alex Wood

Pitchers to Exploit: Every time I see Sean O’Sullivan making a start for the Red Sox, I get a chuckle. I’m completely baffled as to how this guy keeps finding his way to the majors. He’s like a negative two WAR pitcher. Surely there’s somebody else available. Even Scrubmuffin McGigglepants from the local men’s league can give you replacement level innings.

Also consider: Miguel Gonzalez, Zach Davies, Cesar Vargas, Cesar Ramos, Hector Santiago, Tyler Chatwood, Matt Cain, Mike Leake

Hitters (power): Sunday is a great day to stream catchers since most of the regular folks are taking a break. The Athletics use Josh Phegley as a platoon masher versus left-handed pitching. He’ll face Matt Moore. While he isn’t a world beater, Phegley’s career .269/.297/.462 slash against southpaws is well above average for a catcher.

Also consider: Chase Utley, Jake Lamb, Brandon Drury, Ben Paulsen, Franklin Gutierrez, Brett Wallace, Jon Jay, Adam Duvall, Ryan Howard, Caleb Joseph

Hitters (speed): Jarrod Dyson is hitting .215/.271/.262 with a .233 BABIP. Given his raw tools for a league average BABIP, I’m expecting something like a .260/.315/.350 line over the rest of the season. He’ll run wild when the hits start to fall.

Also consider: Leonys Martin, Jonathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez, Eduardo Nunez

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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