The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for June 23

Agenda

1. Player Regression
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Player Regression

During Tuesday’s chat, I received the following question:

At this point in the season are we seeing true talent for the year or can players like Villar regress back to career norms?

As noted at the time, it’s a complicated question. FanGraphs veterans know that some stats take longer to “stabilize” than others. They also understand that the concept of “stabilizing” is an oversimplification.

Power, as measured by ISO, is one of the slowest offensive stats to become predictive. If a previously .100 ISO player posts a .300 ISO in April, it barely affects our expectations for the rest of the season. We might project a .103 ISO going forward. If that same player continued to .300 ISO through June, we’d still project a return to something like a .140 ISO RoS.

So to answer the question, players with power outbreaks may still turn pumpkin. It’s possible we’re seeing a true breakout, but the data says we have to wait to officially announce the change – as we did with J.D. Martinez. That didn’t stop us from fawning over his mechanical changes and buying early.

Other offensive measures become predictive faster. The question mentions Jonathan Villar. He’s hitting .292/.377/.423 with six home runs and 25 steals. Interestingly, his .131 ISO is right in line with career norms. His breakout can be pinned upon two things – a .389 BABIP and better plate discipline.

The high BABIP is a bit confusing. He has a high infield fly rate and merely average line drive rate. One thing he’s doing well is minimizing his medium contact. As a speed guy, soft contact isn’t a bad thing. His infield hit rate is 11th in the league. But he’s also making more hard contact than past seasons. Obviously, we expect some regression in his BABIP, but it’s hard to say if it should be .310, .350, or something in between.

Better hard contact may be a natural byproduct of his sustainable skill – improve plate discipline. At this point, we have no reason to think he’ll suddenly start swinging at more bad pitches. As such, he’ll continue to walk and work his way to hitter’s counts. Pending BABIP regression, Villar’s breakout is real. Of course, the league could adjust by discovering a heretofore unknown weakness. As I said, it’s complicated.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Congrats go to Boomer438 for his contest win on Tuesday. He’s really surged up the DK leaderboard to second place. Corey Kluber, Nolan Arenado, and Charlie Blackmon carreid his lineup. I was screwed out of a would-be bases clearing double when Carlos Correa walked off against Huston Street. Instead, it was a two-run single because the game ended. That was the difference between third and fourth for me. Thems the breaks.

We’ll do the five game main slate on FanDuel today. As usual, it’s 20 users and $2. See ya there.

3. Daily DFS 

Early: The four game early slate does not include anyone even remotely acey. Rick Porcello is the top priced pitcher against the White Sox at Fenway. He’s also the only palatable pitcher in the entire slate.

The Twins have enough lefties to punish Jerad Eickhoff. I’m sitting him in my ottoneu league although I’d consider using him for DFS under these conditions. The opposite side of the matchup is Ricky Nolasco – the cheapest pitcher in the contest. Honestly, I’m tempted to call him the best guy on the board – he has the Phillies matchup after all. Nolasco is working deep into games, he’s just doing his usual thing. You know, where he posts a good FIP and terrible ERA.

The rest, oh my…

Stack Targets: Jon Niese, Adrian Sampson, Albert Suarez, Daniel Norris, James Shields

Late: The five game late slate has better names – particularly Jon Lester, Zack Greinke, and Matt Harvey. Don’t ask me what to expect of Harvey. At the FanGraphs meetup, the consensus was a collective shrug. Cameron wondered if Harvey might be one of those guys who is really bad at 93 mph. Granted, he’s been throwing harder lately and the results are mixed. He has a rematch versus the Braves (four runs in six innings last week).

Greinke is pitching at Coors Field. He does not have a history of success a mile high. That leaves us with Lester at Miami as the popular ace. I have nothing against taking the layup pitcher. Faders will have to choke down a Wei-Yin Chen start versus the Cubs.

Speaking of fades, Matt Wisler is opposite Harvey. He produces a useful start about half the time. I’m not a Wisler fan, but he’s worth consideration tonight as is Kendall Graveman’s rematch with the Angels.

Stack Targets: Wisler, Graveman, Greinke, Eddie Butler, Christian Friedrich, John Lamb, Tim Lincecum

4. SaberSim Observations

Well it’s good to see SaberSim on the same page as me. Lester and Harvey top the page, although I’m sure the system is confused by Harvey. Third is Nolasco followed by Chen and Porcello. It’s a pit of despair thereafter.

The Coors game, Padres, Red Sox, Mets, and Reds are the favored stacks.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: For awhile, Jake Peavy was in contention for worst pitcher in baseball. Over his last five starts, he’s thrown 30.2 innings with 23 strikeouts and a 1.76 ERA (4.05 xFIP). Even considering the xFIP, he’s worth a stream versus the lowly Phillies. Just be sure to move on the next day so you’re not tempted to use future Peavy starts.

Also consider: Zach Davies, Zach Eflin

Pitchers to Exploit: I like Cody Reed. He has swing-and-miss stuff and should eventually be startable even at Great American Ballpark. I expect him to need a season or two to get his ducks in a row. Reed is opposed by the Padres tomorrow. They’re not a bad offense versus southpaws. And that ballpark…

Also consider: Yovani Gallardo, Matt Moore, Tommy Milone, Colin Rea, Aaron Blair, Nick Martinez, Archie Bradley, Tyler Anderson, Wade LeBlanc, Jered Weaver, Zach Neal

Hitters (power): Rickie Weeks is the Diamondbacks cleanup man versus left-handed pitching. He’s facing a crappy lefty at Coors Field tomorrow. Need more prodding? How about his .267/.389/.567 line versus southpaws with more walks than strikeouts. Sure, it’s fluky, but I have no qualms projecting a .950 OPS at Coors.

Also consider: Yangervis Solarte, Derek Norris, C.J. Cron, Stephen Vogt, Peter O’Brien, Rob Refsnyder, Noland Reimold

Hitters (speed): Technically, Ben Revere is barely over the 50 percent ownership rate and thus does not qualify for this section. But I made the rules. I can break them. I’ve watched way too much Revere over the years. He sometimes starts slow before turning into a hit machine. It’s happening now. Grab him while you can.

Also consider: Melvin Upton, Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco, Joey Rickard

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Watch out for storms in Cincinnati. The weather ratings are running hot for hitters today.

The Link.

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