The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for July 6

Agenda

1. Dynasty Blockbuster
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Dynasty Blockbuster

Chad Young and I completed a whomper of a deal yesterday with Ben Duronio in the industry dynasty league The Devil’s Rejects. It’s a 20-team league with 45-player rosters and 28 keepers (no cost, keep forever). Behold:

Chad and I acquire: Trevor Story, Josh Donaldson, Aaron Sanchez

Ben acquires: Nomar Mazara, Kyle Seager, Jake Odorizzi, Mark Zagunis

We’ve owned Mazara since before I joined the management team prior to the 2015 season. Once I got a chance to scout him a bit last season, I fell in love with Mazara’s sweet swing. He was always the first player requested in trade talks.

When Ben contacted us about a Story for Mazara framework, I told him it wasn’t happening. Go away. I believe he initially floated the Donaldson idea just to get me to talk to him. Prior to this trade, my asks for Mazara fell well into the land of absurd. For example, Nolan Arenado and Starling Marte for Mazara and some solid secondary prospects. That was never going to happen, but it was my price.

The deal allows us to chase some category gains this season. We’re currently in fourth place with a stretch shot at second. Third is well within reach. Incidentally, Ben is in fifth place. Any category gains we can add at his expense are doubly valuable. The top five spots pay. And as you’d expect, a higher finish means more cash money.

While Chad and I have plenty of keeper outfielders, we were a little edgy about our shortstop situation – Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez. Story should solve that issue for at least a couple seasons. Story reminds me of Mark Reynolds, i.e. a brief spark with a long tail, but he could become Kris Bryant-lite. He’s such a high variance dynasty asset. If Suarez wasn’t set to lose shortstop eligibility, we would have had less incentive to trade for Story.

One thing is certain, I’m sad to see Mazara go.

 

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

The contest didn’t run yesterday. That’s twice in the last three attempts on DraftKings, so I’m going to reduce the pool to 25 users. Here’s the link for today’s $2 evening contest.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Tigers and Indians are doing a goofy noon game so they’re out. That leaves six games early and eight in the late slate. The pitching options are rather iffy after Jacob deGrom. Only three of them are completely unusable, but they all have warts.

Tanner Roark scored 57 FD points when he played the Brewers two starts ago. This time he’s at home opposite Matt Garza – one of the guys you should not use. He’s a little pricey, but the overall package could easily outscore deGrom.

Jeremy Hellickson draws a pretty terrible Braves lineup. Hellickson generally posts solid-average performances with the occasional gem and stinker. He’s a smart pick for cash games. Even the Phillies should produce runs against Tyrell Jenkins – the worst pitcher in the slate.

Others to target include Sonny Gray at Ervin Santana, Kevin Gausman at Bud Norris, and Anthony DeSclafani at Wrigley Field.

Stack Targets: Jenkins, Garza, Santana, Justin Nicolino, Adam Warren, Norris, Gray, Gausman, DeSclafani

Late: The night crew includes Steven Wright. He’s turned into a surprisingly reliable choice. The Red Sox are hosting a stout Rangers offense, adding variance to Wright’s start. The other ace of the slate is Johnny Cueto at AT&T Park. That one’s against the Sea Level Rockies.

Michael Pineda is always a tempting GPP play because strikeouts. He should add more of those at U.S. Cellular Field. Unfortunately, he’ll probably also cough up a homer or three.

I can’t figure out when and when not to use Drew Smyly. A matchup with the L.A. Trout should heavily favor Smyly, but I just don’t have a good read on him right now. I’m staying away so he’ll undoubtedly have a big night.

If you’re looking to use a less expensive guy, it’s Jaime Garcia or bust. Garcia is bad more often than he’s good, but he should be fine versus a slumping Pirates offense.

Stack Targets: Colin Rea, Miguel Gonzalez, Jered Weaver, Wade LeBlanc, Jorge de la Rosa, Shelby Miller, Jeff Locke, Marcus Stroman, Martin Perez, Mike Fiers, Ian Kennedy

4. SaberSim Observations

No surprises here, it’s deGrom, Cueto, Pineda, Gausman, and Hellickson headlining the slate. The first shocker is de la Rosa at seventh. Given the parks and weather involved today, I don’t even disagree with the ballsy ranking.

Stack anywhere. Really. These weather conditions can fuel any lineup. SaberSim recommends the Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, and Blue Jays.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Look who’s back? It’s Hyun-Jin Ryu. The always steady command and control southpaw was a tad hittable during his rehab stint. If he’s catching a little too much of the plate, the Padres might shake him up. After all, San Diego isn’t bad versus left-handed pitching. I’m eager to see how Ryu performs. Depending on your league, you may have to stash him now.

Also consider: Blake Snell, Bartolo Colon, Danny Duffy, Chad Bettis

Pitchers to Exploit: When he was an Astro, I believed in lefty Brett Oberholtzer as an above average swingman. In a long relief role for the Phillies, he’s been torched. Philadelphia is visiting Coors Field tomorrow. This could get oh-so-ugly.

Also consider: Chad Kuhl, Justin Verlander, Ivan Nova, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tyler Duffey, Lucas Harrell

Hitters (power): It’s not that I love his matchup against Danny Duffy, but it’s probably time (past time really) to snag Dae-ho Lee. The Mariners first baseman has kicked Adam Lind out of his familiar platoon role. Lee isn’t a masher, but he does more than enough to warrant rostering in a Justin Bour kind of way.

Also consider: Yangervis Solarte, Derek Norris, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn, Franklin Gutierrez, Jeimer Candelario, Joe Mauer, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman, Tyler Naquin, Brandon Guyer

Hitters (speed): “Remember, remember the fifth of November,” cried Ben Revere during his midnight ride around the bases of CitiField in 1775. Look for a repeat of history tomorrow.

Also consider: Whit Merrifield, Billy Burns

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Tens (10s). If you want safe pitching, it’s San Fran, Tampa Bay, or bust.

The Link.

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