The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for July 30

Agenda

1. More Trade Fallout
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. More Trade Fallout

Yesterday was a rich day for rumors – Vincent Velasquez finally rated a full article on MLBTR – but only one trade was finalized. The Padres acquired a solid prospect haul from the Marlins in exchange for Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea. In terms of immediate fantasy implications, Cashner is now slightly more likely to win his starts. Dynasty owners should be happy Josh Naylor will play in lefty power friendly Petco Park with nine games a season at Coors Field.

The inclusion of Carter Capps is the big wrinkle, although it won’t matter until 2017 or even 2018. When healthy, Capps is a contender for top reliever in baseball. He’s currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Capps could shove Brandon Maurer aside for ninth inning duties. Of course, there are a lot of moving parts to Capps’ approach. There’s no guarantee he’ll quickly recover from his injury.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

I’m cancelling today’s Invitational. I’ll see you again on Monday.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The three game early slate features some interesting arms. Jake Arrieta is the ace opposite Wade Miley. J.A. has been pitching like an ace, but I’m always wary of matchups against Baltimore. He’s a high risk, high reward play. Jake Peavy and Reynaldo Lopez are also varying degrees of viable.  With Peavy, you’re hoping Lopez flops. With Lopez, you’re hoping he posts 12 strikeouts in six innings.

Stack Targets: Yovani Gallardo, Miley, Lopez

Late: The remaining 12 games are late, sans ace. Drew Pomeranz and Justin Verlander are the big names, but I’m not seeing a ton of value per dollar for either of them. Pom is visiting the Angels. It’s definitely a safer matchup than Verlander’s. He’s hosting the power happy Astros. There’s a risk of rain in Detroit too.

Josh Tomlin falls squarely into the “steady” category. He rarely posts big games, but you can usually count on about 30 points. The matchup against Oakland smells fine to me. The Athletics do have some power bats, but only a couple of them are left-handed.

Jeremy Hellickson is visiting Julio Teheran in the Battle of the Trade Bait. Either pitcher could be scratched for a trade. Given the offenses involved in this game, it should be a low scoring affair.

The Reds are visiting one of the few teams they can outplay on a consistent basis – the Padres. Anthony DeSclafani has pitched well since returning from injury. The Padres remain one of the worst teams in baseball versus right-handed pitching. However, the swap of Melvin Upton for Alex Dickerson should improve their potency.

Stack Targets: Braden Shipley, Dillon Overton, Christian Friedrich, Colin Rea, Chase Anderson, Jorge de la Rosa, Martin Perez, Miguel Gonzalez, Tommy Milone, Mike Fiers, Ian Kennedy, Hector Santiago

4. SaberSim Observations

The top pitchers include Arrieta, Scott Kazmir, Drew Smyly, Teheran, and Happ. Also Verlander, DeSclafani, and Taillon. I don’t strongly disagree with any of those plays, although I obviously don’t favor Kazmir or Smyly. I would have wrote about them above if I did!

Stacks include Trout, Cubs, Blue Jays, Pirates, and a slew of individuals.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: I probably wouldn’t actually start Homer Bailey tomorrow in his first start since early 2015. However, a matchup against the Padres at Petco Park is about as good a situation as he’ll get all season. His minor league rehab numbers weren’t exactly inspiring. Keep an eye on the velocity. We’re looking to see him average 94 mph.

Also consider: Michael Pineda, Blake Snell, Jerad Eickhoff, Ervin Santana, Tyler Skaggs

Pitchers to Exploit: Lucas Harrell’s success in Atlanta can be traced to a 2.9 percent HR/FB ratio. What do you want to bet he coughs up a greater than 10 percent ratio in Texas? Aside from the home run luck, Harrell’s numbers are actually pretty similar to his succcessful 2012 season.

Also consider: Sonny Gray, Mike Pelfrey, Chad Bettis, Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, James Shields, Dillon Gee, Matt Cain, Pat Corbin, Jarred Cosart

Hitters (power): Earlier in the year, I received an updated scouting take on Cheslor Cuthbert. He had made adjustments to better tap into his power. Sure enough, Mike Moustakas‘ replacement is quietly posting a solid season. He’s batting .293/.325/.452 with modest platoon splits. He’s opposed by Harrell tomorrow – i.e. he won’t have the platoon advantage.

Also consider: Alex Dickerson, Yangervis Solarte, Ryan Schimpf, Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, Max Kepler, Preston Tucker

Hitters (speed): Word on the street is that speedy Raul Mondesi is being tested to take over for Alcides Escobar next year. That means Mondesi should be starting most games at second base with Whit Merrifield reduced to a purely support role.

Also consider: Travis Jankowski, Trea Turner, Raul Mondesi, Cesar Hernandez, Jace Peterson, Ender Inciarte

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The weather rating app is still on the fritz.

The Link.

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