The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for July 27

Agenda

1. Deadline Winners – July 27
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Deadline Winners – July 27

Thus far, trade deadline week has produced two winners – Andrew Miller and Alex Dickerson. With respect to Melvin Upton, what he gains in supporting cast and ballpark, he more than loses in decreased playing time.

Miller immediately regains the mantle of top five closer – possibly top two behind his former teammate. Of course, Miller was already owned even in noncompetitive leagues. On the other hand, Dickerson is widely available.

The left-handed hitter has homered in three straight games while displaying an aggressive, high contact approach. Going forward, I expect something like a .190 ISO and 16 percent strikeout rate – both better than either Steamer or ZiPS project. He should be moderately useful in leagues where Trayce Thompson or Robbie Grossman were hot waiver wire finds.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Congrats and kudos to KingTrout who used Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey to differentiate himself from the field. He was last night’s contest winner. The leaderboard is updated.

Today, we’ll return to DraftKings before swinging back to FanDuel tomorrow.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Six games are early. The aces are front-loaded with Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, and Carlos Carrasco available. Strasburg and Carrasco are opposite one another in Cleveland while Bumgarner is hosting the Reds at AT&T Park.

Mid-priced pitchers also offer value in this slate. Adam Conley has the much desired Phillies matchup. Michael Fulmer must cope with rough circumstances – the Tigers are visiting Fenway. Even R.A. Dickey has a decent matchup versus the strikeout prone Padres. Beware, the San Diego offense is clicking these days.

My favorite option is Brandon McCarthy. The righty is pitching superbly since returning from the disabled list, limiting contact while maintaining his typical command and control. As it is, the Rays have some trouble against right-handed pitching. McCarthy was cleared to go at least seven innings last week before a calf cramp ended his night. He could toss eight today.

Stack Targets: Luis Perdomo, Dan Straily, Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Moore

Late: The remaining nine games are late. Yu Darvish went six innings in his most recent outing. It’s now safe to use him from a ceiling perspective. He should carve through the Athletics lineup.

Adam Wainwright is in peak form. At the start of July, he had a 5.04 ERA. It’s declined in four straight outings down to a 4.09 ERA. He’s working deep into games, earning victories, and piling up strikeouts. He’s visiting the Mets.

In yesterday’s chat, somebody asked if Danny Duffy is an ace now. The answer is no, probably not. But he’s been close enough this season to investigate the question. As long as he avoids Mike Trout’s bat, he could post another strong DFS outing tonight. I expect Matt Shoemaker to match Duffy pitch-for-pitch. This game looks like an interesting duel between two 2016 breakouts.

Speaking of duels, Lance McCullers is hosting Masahiro Tanaka. McCullers is the better pitcher in my opinion, but he’s less likely to throw over six innings. The Astros handle him with care – even when he has a rare, actually efficient evening.

Jon Gray is in Baltimore, Mike Foltynewicz is in Minnesota, and James Paxton is visiting Pittsburgh. All three road starters are viable for DFS purposes.

Stack Targets:

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim has picked the names you’d expect – Bumgarner, Strasburg, Cole, McCarthy, and Darvish. Also Carrasco, McCullers, Hammel, Conley, and Gray. So many pitchers today…

Cubs, Blue Jays, Trout, Red Sox, Brewers, Rangers, Twins, and Tigers are among the top stacks.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Tyler Anderson has mostly pitched at Coors Field where he’s experienced a rather surprising degree of success. The ground ball pitcher has above average swing-and-miss stuff to go with plus command. He should pitch well at sea level too.

Also consider: Robbie Ray

Pitchers to Exploit: The Orioles failed to trade Ubaldo Jimenez to the Padres so they’re going to start him tomorrow. The Twins otherwise mediocre offense gets a big bump in value.

Also consider: Kyle Gibson, Matt Wisler, Jered Weaver

Hitters (power): Twins prospect Max Kepler is having a solid season at the plate. There’s upside here too if he can figure out how to pull fewer easy ground balls (.256 BABIP) or cut down on his strikeout rate. A matchup against Jimenez is always high variance. The volatile righty still has loud stuff, he just can’t use it with any consistency. As such, it’s hard to pick exactly who will slay him.

Also consider: Kelby Tomlinson, Jarrett Parker, Travis Shaw, Joey Gallo, Derek Dietrich, Pedro Alvarez, Hyun-soo Kim, Kennys Vargas

Hitters (speed): The Phillies, in their never-ending quest to find some offense, have installed Cesar Hernandez as their leadoff man du jour. He’s swiped three bases in his last four games. The Phillies are up against the Braves – an entire team possessing Jon Lester’s success rate of holding base runners.

Also consider: Denard Span, Angel Pagan, Michael Bourn

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.