The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for July 19

Agenda

1. FoC
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. FoC

I attended last night’s Flight of the Conchords concert in Cary, NC. The show mostly consisted of the band and Arj Barker (aka Dave) making fun of North Carolina’s heat and ludicrous bathroom laws. Well, mostly they played songs including many good new ones. But they also made fun of the heat and laws.

Both Bret and Jemaine are gray beards now. I’m not sure if that’s important in your fantasy comedy band dynasty league. It certainly doesn’t matter for your fantasy baseball teams. Shall we?

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Congratulations go to Jourgensen who rode Jose Fernandez, Billy Hamilton, Jedd Gyorko, and Anthony Rizzo to victory. Meanwhile, I tinkered myself out of a third place finish by downgrading JoFery to Kluber and upgrading Hamilton and Justin Upton. C’est la vie. The leaderboard is updated.

We’ll play on DraftKings today. Since it’s been awhile, I’ll keep the entries at $2 and 25 users.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

All 15 games are in the main slate. When Jake Arrieta finished pitching on June 22, he had a 1.74 ERA. Since then, he’s been on a steady march to mediocrity. Within three appearances, his ERA spiked almost a full point (2.68 ERA). In other words, he’s perceived as cold. He’s also the most expensive pitcher of the day. That creates a potential opportunity. If an 11 day rest has restored him (much as it restored Aaron Nola yesterday), then he should be a top pitching option with a huge ceiling. And he’ll be unpopular for two reasons – his recent performance and a lurking Noah Syndergaard.

In matchups that actually favor the pitcher, Danny Salazar is opposite a tepid Royals offense. KC usually avoids strikeouts, but they aren’t a team to fear. Moreover, Salazar should receive plenty of run support versus southpaw Brian Flynn.

Speaking of run support, the Cardinals should thump Colin Rea. That puts right-hander Carlos Martinez in prime position to post a high strikeout total and earn a victory. Beware, CMart doesn’t always pitch deep into his starts. In that way, he’s very similar to Salazar but with an even better matchup.

It’s another bad day for bargains. Plenty of pitchers are cheap, but none have any kind of ceiling. The lowest I’d go is Reynaldo Lopez for that wild card factor. And honestly, don’t do that to yourself. Junior Guerra, Jameson Taillon, and Vince Velasquez are the cheapest viable pitchers.

Stack Targets: Flynn, Rea, Anibal Sanchez, Dillon Overton, Zack Godley, Jose Urena, Tyrell Jenkins, Cody Reed, Blake Snell, Vance Worley, Tommy Milone, Kyle Lohse, Jake Peavy, Time Lincecum, Lopez, Nathan Eovaldi, Wade Miley, Tyler Chatwood

4. SaberSim Observations

No surprises out of SaberSim today. Arrieta, CMart, Syndergaard, Taillon, and Salazar round out the top five. Well, perhaps Taillon’s inclusion here is a tad surprising. I’m not too keen personally though I do see him as startable. The tool does tab Reed as the seventh best starter. I profiled Reed on account of his matchup versus the lefty-heavy Braves.

There’s a Coors game plus Red Sox, Trouts, Astros, Tigers, Blue Jays, Reds, and Yankees.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Felix Hernandez is back in action tomorrow. I assume he’s not on your waiver wire. However, you might be able to acquire Michael Pineda in time for a high risk, high reward start at home against the Orioles. The imaginable outcomes range from 1.2 inning dumpster fire to 14 strikeout gem. Pineda is best suited to H2H or desperate roto owners.

Also consider: Anthony DeSclafani, Wei-Yin Chen, Jeremy Hellickson

Pitchers to Exploit: Although I’m generally a fan of Daniel Mengden’s solid command and decent repertoire, he still needs to learn how to get the most of his stuff. After starting his major league career with four strong starts, he’s fallen in a hole with three straight clunkers. The Astros supplied one of those crushing defeats. They could easily repeat the experience.

Also consider: Lucas Harrell, Chris Archer, Jorge de la Rosa, Miguel Gonzalez, Pat Corbin, Matt Cain, Yovani Gallardo, Hyun-jin Ryu, Gio Gonzalez, Chase Anderson, Jeff Locke, Andrew Cashner, Martin Perez, Hector Santiago

Hitters (power): In a tiny major league sample, Tommy Joseph has announced his love and utter infatuation with left-handed pitchers. He’s slashing .357/.400/.714 in 45 plate appearances with all the line drives. Yea, it’s a tiny sample, but it’s not like Chen has done anything magnificent recently.

Also consider: Brandon Guyer, Ryan Rua, Ryan Schimpf, John Jaso, Cameron Rupp, Howie Kendrick, Hyun-soo Kim, Pedro Alvarez, Junior Lake, Seth Smith, Adam Lind

Hitters (speed): As with Tim Anderson yesterday, Trea Turner is only 21 percent owned. At least the low ownership rate makes some sense with Turner. Although he also has a valuable lineup role when he plays, Dusty Baker isn’t using him as an everyday guy. He’s probably also in line for a demotion if/when Ryan Zimmerman returns. Turner will have the platoon advantage versus Ryu tomorrow.

Also consider: Jose Peraza, Michael Bourn, Ender Inciarte

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.