The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for August 4

by
August 4, 2016

Agenda

  1. Some Words About Previously Bad Teams
  2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
  3. Daily DFS
  4. SaberSim Observations
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets
  6. Factor Grid

1. Some Words About Previously Bad Teams

Some days, I wake up and my mind doesn’t want to chat about a random topic before getting down to business. So I look for a nice light topic, such as the Twins scoring 54 runs over the last seven days. The Minnesota offense is hotter than the hood of a black Ford Bronco in the desert. The Twins recent hotburst has pushed their offense up to a league average 99 wRC+. That’s 12th overall.

A second observation – the San Diego Padres now have the top offense versus left-handed pitchers and the third worst offense versus right-handed pitching. However, I expect both sides of the coin to regress towards league average. The club has new personnel and a more lefty-skewing offense. Alex Dickerson and Ryan Schimpf should bring more firepower versus righties while also dragging down production against southpaws.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

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The story of my season is that I can’t string together good days. A very popular Rockies stack led me to victory with the help of Tyler Anderson and Jake Odorizzi. I was the only participant using Anderson. The leaderboard is updated.

It’s Thursday and Thursday means FanDuel. See ya there.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Five of 12 games are early. Matt Moore’s debut with the Giants is of interest for two reasons. First, he should produce a good outcome versus a lefty-prone Phillies offense. It’s also possible he’ll be out-pitched by Vincent Velasquez.

Both Ian Kennedy and Drew Smyly have the occasional very good start. They’re opposite one another. Neither the Rays nor the Royals possess a particularly terrifying offense. The game is at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field.

Stack Targets: Mike Clevinger, Brandon Finnegan, Mike Leake, Hector Santiago

Late: The main contest runs seven games deep. Aces include…well, there aren’t any aces in this time slot either. Three of J.A. Happ’s last five outings have hovered around 60 FanDuel points. Looks like he’s rediscovered his Pittsburgh swagger. swag swag swag. I can’t say I’m thrilled with the prospect of using him versus the Astros. They have so many good right-handed hitters.

Despite the nickname Big Sexy, Bartolo Colon isn’t the sexiest DFS pick most days. While I’d not use him at Yankee Stadium, he should be a reliable choice for league average production. The Yankees offense is just so pitiful.

My new meta is to use Rockies pitchers at Coors Field. It’s paid out at a 7.5X rate (don’t actually do this, I’ve been stupidly lucky on these plays). With an ugly duckling slate like tonight, 30 FD points from Tyler Chatwood is acceptable.

Stack Targets: Ariel Miranda, Tyrell Jenkins, Ryan Vogelsong, Ricky Nolasco, Jesse Hahn, A.J. Griffin, Wade Miley

4. SaberSim Observations

Drews Smyly and Pomeranz top SaberSim’s wish list. Kennedy, Clevinger (!), and Velasquez round out the top five. While I like Clevinger, there are two reasons I’m steering clear tonight. First, recall that tortured analogy about the Twins offense and black Ford Broncos? Clevinger is hosting the Twins. More importantly, the forecast calls for storms.

A Coors game, Trout, Pirates, Astros, Orioles, Cardinals, and Blue Jays round out the top stacks.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: While Blake Snell is the more exciting pick in tomorrow’s Twins-Rays game, the smarter play is probably Ervin Santana. Snell’s command is iffy whereas Santana is on a roll. You’ll get fewer strikeouts from the veteran, but you also have a better chance at a win with good ratios.

Also consider: Jameson Taillon, Snell

Pitchers to Exploit: Tim Lincecum is a disaster against anything, especially anything left-handed. As it happens, the Mariners have quite a few left-handed power bats to line up against Lincecum. Prepare for a drubbing.

Also consider: Yovani Gallardo, Miguel Gonzalez, Martin Perez, Dillon Gee, Jose de la Cruz, David Phelps, Jorge de la Rosa, Braden Shipley, Chase Anderson, Dillon Overton, Christian Friedrich

Hitters (power): Including Maikel Franco (ineligible for this section), the Phillies now have a tidy little stack versus southpaws. The big guns are Tommy Joseph (.309/.345/.582) and Aaron Altherr. Cameron Rupp can also offer some pop out of the catcher slot.

Also consider: Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Matt Szczur, Scooter Gennett, Daniel Descalso, Alex Bregman, Pedro Alvarez, Hyun-soo Kim, Brad Miller,

Hitters (speed): You may have missed your chance to add Hernan Perez, but it’s only a short term loss. He’s a true talent 90 wRC+ hitter with above average speed and a hint of pop. In short, he’s the new Eduardo Nunez. The Brewers are using him in the middle of their lineup, and he has an upcoming four-game set against the Braves. Pick him up for the next week. I promise four steals if he stays healthy.

Also consider: Travis Jankowski

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Watch out for a couple storms in Cleveland and Atlanta.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





 

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