The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for August 30

Agenda

1. Splits Tool
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Splits Tool

In case you haven’t noticed, we’ve rolled out a new splits tool. Sean Dolinar explains it in all the detail necessary. It’s nifty.

As a writer, I still like the old splits page because I get most of the information I need in one or two clicks. This tool increases the amount of control you have over the splits, but you’ll have to make as many as 10 clicks.

In my prior life as a software salesman, the reporting tool I sold required more clicks than the competition. That was because it was more flexible and customizable. Some would-be customers said “too many clicks” and went with the competition. Others preferred to have more power in their report builder. FanGraphs now has both options – few clicks or power.

In most cases, applying splits willy-nilly is going to give you meaningless data. Do be careful. Here I’ve broken down Brandon Guyer to include all batted balls against left-handed pitching. One thing this tool does nicely is provide the year-by-year figures in the same table. That’s not an option on the legacy page.

Returning to Guyer, you’ll notice he’s having an unusually excellent season versus southpaws. However, we’ve basically stripped out the two components of handedness splits that matter – plate discipline and quality of contact. While it’s useful to compare his current production to past numbers, remember to complete your analysis.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Congrats to themarksman13. He rode Tanner Roark and Mike Trout to the finish line. I though I had this one with excellent pitching, but my Marlins, Indians, and Athletics batters all came up small. The leaderboard is updated.

Who is ready for the Xth straight round of DraftKings? I think we’re up to about nine in a row.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s an acey day with Max Scherzer at Philadelphia headlining the slate. Drew Pomeranz, Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Kyle Hendricks, Masahiro Tanaka, and Zack Greinke are also available. Scherzer is the obvious top play, but he’s super expensive. For a pitcher who’s almost likely to post a 40 point day on DraftKings, the price is right. If I’m not playing Scherzer, I’m probably using Hamels versus an all-or-nothing Mariners offense or Kyle Hendricks opposite the Pirates.

Value goes beyond the top layer today. J.A. Happ will face the always volatile Orioles. Coming off a couple sub-par outings, Happ is a fantastic option for GPPs. In my estimation, only Scherzer is substantially more likely to be the top pitcher of the day. The other aces probably have a higher floor than Happ. He could allow multiple home runs.

Nobody is going to try Rich Hill at Coors Field. However, I kind of like his spin rate slash curve ball approach at Coors. All these years, Colorado has been trying to find ground ball pitchers who thrive at altitude. My own observations have led me to aggressively target just about any ground ball guy at Coors. Less movement equals more hangers – and hanging sinkers are easily the most mashable pitch in the game (with the possible exception of hanging splitters). I expect a bunch of pop outs and fly outs from the Rockies tonight.

The exception to the Coors ground ball pitcher rule is Tyler Anderson. He’s thrived at home while burning worms. It’s not a great day for those Coors stacks.

Way down there in mega bargain land, you’ll find Seth Lugo. If you’re using Scherzer and also want to roster hitters, he’s your guy. It’s not often a guy this cheap projects for close to 20 DraftKings points. He’s stretched out to throw more than six innings if he has a good start, and he’s opposed by a beatable Marlins lineup.

Stack Targets: Andrew Albers, Anthony Ranaudo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver, Wily Peralta, Edwin Jackson, Josh Tomlin, Tim Adleman

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim says Scherzer, Cueto, Julio Teheran, Pomeranz, and Collin McHugh. I very nearly listed McHugh as an exploit – and for good reason. The simulator doesn’t believe in McHugh’s high BABIP and 1.46 HR/9. I do. I’m also all kinds of out on Julio Teheran versus the Padres. He’s looked bad since returning from injury, and the Friars aren’t as bad against righties as the season numbers suggest.

Stacks include the Coors game, Cubs, Red Sox, Cardinals, Braves, Blue Jays, and Orioles.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: It took three tries, but Luke Weaver finally had a legitimately good start. With his nose for finding strikeouts, a matchup against the Brewers could lead to six innings and 10 punch outs. Of course, the downside is considerably great than, say, the fat man below. Weaver has already allowed three home runs in 15 innings. Don’t be surprised if the Brewers bomb him.

Also consider: David Phelps, Bartolo Colon, Mike Montgomery

Pitchers to Exploit: Mike Fiers could have a solid outing. I’m betting against it. He’s a homer prone fly ball pitcher with 1.49 HR/9. He’s pitching against a team with Khris Davis and Marcus Semien (among other lesser power threats).

Also consider: Martin Perez, Ross Detwiler, Ross Stripling, Jeff Hoffman, Yovani Gallardo, Ricky Nolasco, Brandon Finnegan, Adam Morgan, Pat Dean, Ryan Vogelsong, Matt Garza, Luis Cessa, Paul Clemens, Matt Wisler

Hitters (power): Remember Xavier Scruggs? No, of course you don’t. Scruggs used to be one of the nobodies who might actually be a somebody in the Cardinals system. Now 28 (nearly 29), he has a narrow window to audition for a larger role. So far, so good. After batting .290/.408/.565 at Triple-A, he’s posted a .346/.433/.538 through 30 plate appearances.

Also consider: Ryan Schimpf, Alex Dickerson, Yangervis Solarte, Nick Markakis, Abraham Almonte, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp, Aaron Altherr, Chase Utley, Josh Reddick, Howie Kendrick, Rob Segedin, Franklin Gutierrez

Hitters (speed): Jarrod Dyson may get a chance to test Gary Sanchez’s arm. So far, Sanchez has eliminated seven of 12 total runners. Dyson does have a good matchup opposite Cessa.

Also consider: Travis Jankowski, Jace Peterson, Ender Inciarte, Rajai Davis

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.