The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for August 19

Agenda

1. By Request
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. By Request

In this week’s chat, somebody requested an analysis of Jason Kipnis. What follows is a brief look at the Indian’s second baseman.

Kipnis has been a frustrating fantasy asset throughout his six year career. Whenever we thought we had a grasp on his expected performance, injuries or poor play torpedoed his batting line. After jilting his owners, Kipnis would go on to rake for someone else at a discounted price.

At first glance, he appears to be following the Matt Carpenter model. His strikeout rate has increased nearly four percentage points from last season. In exchange, the 29-year-old has added six points to his hard hit rate, taken four away from his soft hit rate, and bumped his fly ball rate by 8.5 points with a corresponding decrease in ground ball rate. He’s maintained his typical high line drive rate in the process. It’s the first time in his career in which his fly ball and ground ball rates are about equal.

Whereas Carpenter traded actual, measurable contact for his power, Kipnis’ bump in strikeouts isn’t supported by the peripherals. There’s literally been no change in his plate discipline numbers right down to a normal-for-him 7.2 percent swinging strike rate. His natural strikeout rate tends to wander between 16 and 22 percent. He just happens to be towards the high end of the range right now.

The data tells me there’s a mechanical change at play – probably something subtle like a lowering of his hands. A video analysis would be helpful, but I’m going to leave that for another day or another writer.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

I used a ballsy strategy of leaving $2,700 on the table yesterday. And it would have worked if it weren’t for those meddling kids (i.e. the Orioles beating up Joe Musgrove). Instead, Hoehne2 led the way with big nights from Travis Jankowski and Alex Dickerson. Congrats!

The leaderboard is updated. We’ll do FanDuel again tonight. I have a game tomorrow so don’t expect a weekend contest.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

At least six venues are serious storm risks tonight. Check the details in the Factor Grid and monitor accordingly. All 15 games will be played tonight.

Johnny Cueto is the prime ace, and his game will be dry too. Cueto has been one of the best pitchers not named Clayton Kershaw, but he does have four clunkers in his last six starts (and five in his last nine). The Mets lineup is about as unintimidating as they come. I have no real reservations against using Cueto. He’s opposed by Seth Lugo. The Mets reliever probably won’t toss more than four innings.

The formerly lefty mashing Rays traded away two of their best mashers. That makes it a LOT easier to justify using Cole Hamels at Tropicana Field. Once again, we know he’ll be dry when others may wind up wet mid-game. Hamels is generally consistent even if he does have the occasional bad inning.

Masahiro Tanaka has the semi-difficult job of dodging Mike Trout. If he succeeds, he may cruise through the Angels lineup. They’re not a high strikeout club which limits Tanaka’s ceiling. Angels Stadium should help him keep it in the yard.

Tanner Roark versus the hapless and helpless Braves is a recipe for success. Roark is a safe bet for seven innings and five strikeouts. Expecting more is asking too much. With luck, Julio Teheran’s return from the disabled list will include plenty of rust.

Kyle Hendricks is cheap – for a reason. The Cubs are visiting Coors Field. I’ve made mot of my money this year by using pitchers at Coors Field – usually Rockies guys. I don’t have the stones to try Tyler Anderson against the Cubs, but I do like Hendricks’ prospects.

Stack Targets: Lugo, Adam Morgan, Tim Adleman, Jered Weaver, Jarred Cosart, Matt Andriese, James Shields, Jose Berrios, Kendall Graveman, Wade LeBlanc, Wade Miley, Bud Norris

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim likes Zack Greinke most despite his current season struggles. He was so good last year, but that was a different (albeit similar) pitcher. I’ll take Hamels, Gerrit Cole, Cueto, or Adam Wainwright (versus the Phillies) over Greinke. SaberSim always loves LeBlanc (ranked sixth) for utterly indiscernible reasons.

Stacks include Coors Field, Nationals, Astros, Reds, Dodgers, Trout, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Cardinals.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Luke Weaver was kinda meh in his big league debut. Now he’s heading to Philadelphia. If he can’t stifle the Phillies offense, he probably won’t be a fantasy asset this season. I anticipate about 7.00 K/9, 3.50 BB/9, and a 4.00 ERA going forward with better numbers tomorrow.

Also consider: Bartolo Colon, A.J. Griffin, Jeremy Hellickson, Chad Kuhl, David Phelps, Hector Santiago, Robbie Ray

Pitchers to Exploit: Luis Cessa has good minor league numbers and a 95 mph heater. It doesn’t bode well that he’s struggled through eight relief appearances. A 2.41 HR/9 has to regress, right? Well, it kind of depends on the how and why. He’s a fly ball pitcher, and he’s getting hammered. That’ll lead to a high home run rate. Cessa needs to learn a little contact management to stick in the majors.

Also consider: Mike Fiers, Ross Detwiler, Daniel Norris, Tyrell Jenkins, Brett Anderson, Brandon Finnegan, Mike Montgomery, Clayton Richard, Wily Peralta, Ricky Nolasco

Hitters (power): After an interminably slow start, Pedro Alvarez is having a helluva season. Since homering on May 24, he’s batting .298/.331/.625 with 16 home runs in 178 plate appearances. His .327 BABIP is only slightly lucky. He’s worth owning anytime you think he’ll start. He’s only 22 percent owned on Yahoo.

Also consider: Yunel Escobar, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, Didi Gregorius, Seth Smith, Brandon Drury, Chris Owings, Ryan Raburn, Paulo Orlando, Enrique Hernandez, Howie Kendrick, Tucker Barnhart, Aaron Hill, Derek Dietrich, Matt Joyce, Brad Miller

Hitters (speed): Tim Anderson has finally been bussed to the bottom of the White Sox lineup where he belongs. He’s having some serious trouble with his contact rates and could probably benefit from another extended stint in Triple-A. That won’t come until 2017 at the earliest. In the meantime, he hits for average with some power and speed. Just don’t expect an OBP help.

Also consider: Jorge Polanco, Ben Revere, Angel Pagan, Denard Span

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Ten thousands of storms ahoy!

The Link.

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