The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for August 12

Agenda

1. CarGo Jr.
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. CarGo Jr.

I had a mini-debate on Twitter yesterday about Carlos Gomez. The Astros outfielder was recently designated for assignment after failing to live up to expectations – or even a league average performance. As he’s wont to do, Jeff Sullivan penned a piece that perfectly summarizes my reservations.

Some team will take a chance on Gomez, and they should. There’s always that chance you catch lightning in a bottle. From an analytic standpoint, there just isn’t anything positive to grasp. Gomez’s supporters on the birdnoise.com point to the failed physical with the Mets last summer. Obviously, he’s playing hurt, right? That may indeed be the case, but it’s not exactly a positive if you’re trying to squeeze something out of him over the next month and a half. Hurt players can become unhurt, but it usually doesn’t happen midseason without a rehab stint.

As Jeff so helpfully illustrated, everything is going in the wrong direction for Gomez. He’s hitting more pulled grounders, whiffing more frequently, and even his defense has declined. My own scouting take is that he has a spontaneous case of the olds. With his violent approach at the plate and all-around physicality, it’s not surprising that he might age faster than the normal bear. Going back to the injury point, he might be suffering from chronic issues that don’t affect availability for a game, but do permanently reduce talent.

Fantasy owners should probably forget about Gomez. Sure, stash him away in your dynasty – assuming you aren’t cutting an actual player of future relevance (for example, I would drop Rockies 23rd outfielder Wes Rogers for him but not Brewers ninth outfielder Kyle Wren).

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

We failed to fill for a second straight day. I guess we’re losing steam now that football’s becoming a thing. Jfud81 would have won with a Duffy/Napoli combo.

I’m going to keep the contest size at 20 users. Since we’re on FanDuel today, the worst case scenario is that it runs for free again.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Cubs are doing a solo dance avec the Cardinals. If you wanted a share of Jake Arrieta or Adam Wainwright, you can fuggedaboutit.

Late: That leaves us with only 14 games. Stephen Strasburg is hosting the Braves in an obvious must-play scenario – that is, it would be must play if it didn’t cost the proverbial arm and a leg. Mike Foltynewicz is capable of going pitch-for-pitch with Strasburg.

Other aces include David Price against Arizona, Carlos Carrasco opposite the Angels, Yu Darvish hosting Detroit, and Chris Archer at New York. Of those, Price interests me the least, and he costs the most. I like the matchup for Carrasco although it’s been a little over a month since he was last very good. Darvish can now throw 100 or more pitches in a start. I still wouldn’t expect more than seven innings per appearance. Archer has lowered his ERA in four straight outings, and the Yankees lineup is one of the least intimidating in the sport.

Beyond the aces, Jon Gray jumps off the page with an easy match against Jake Thompson and the Phillies. Gray has his occasional rough outings, but he’s been impressively good in general this year. He last faced the Phillies on July 8, throwing 6.1 innings with eight strikeouts and two runs allowed. That was at Coors. This time, he’s at sea level.

Let’s talk bargains. We have some good ones today by FanDuel’s reckoning. Dylan Bundy is just $7,400 despite superb numbers in recent outings. We’re believers here at RotoGraphs (I’ll admit to being one of the last on the bandwagon). He’s pitching at AT&T Park – the friendliest venue for pitchers. Oh, and no designated hitter.

Want to pay even less? Tyler Skaggs (FD $6,400) had a rocky outing versus the Mariners in his latest start. Before that, he held the Red Sox and Royals scoreless through 12.1 innings. Skaggs has a tough assignment against a deceptively solid Indians lineup. As a southpaw, he partially nullifies some of the unique park factors at Progressive Field. Remember, Carrasco is on the other side of this one.

Last but not least, Joe Musgrove will get his second crack at the Blue Jays in his third big league appearance. Toronto is now Bautista-less. In fact, their entire outfield is a mess. Musgrove fired seven strong innings versus the Rangers in his last start. He should easily outperform a $6,000 price tag. The Astros draw wild card Francisco Liriano.

Stack Targets: Thompson, Paul Clemens, Ariel Miranda, Pat Corbin, Logan Verrett, Kyle Gibson, Anibal Sanchez, CC Sabathia, Ross Stripling, Ivan Nova

4. SaberSim Observations

The Sim love Arrieta, but that’s not for us. Strasburg, Gray, Darvish, Price, and Musgrove round out the top five with Carrasco and Skaggs on the bubble. I always find it curious when the tool and I are in complete agreement.

Nationals, Red Sox, Reds, Mets, Trout, Astros, Brewers, and Rockies are your top rated stacks.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Where to start? It’s a banner day for waiver wire pitchers. The newest is Cardinals call up Luke Weaver. The righty made just one start at Triple-A after dominating Double-A hitters (1.40 ERA, 10.29 K/9, 1.17 BB/9). The double jump makes it difficult to form a clear projection. His command should hold up well enough. We’ll see if he catches too much plate. The Cardinals are throwing him right into the fire versus the Cubs.

Also consider: Matt Andriese, Brandon McCarthy, Tyler Anderson, Jerad Eickhoff, Matt Shoemaker, Adam Conley, Reynaldo Lopez

Pitchers to Exploit: Indians starter Mike Clevinger broke out in 2015. His strikeout rate spiked with a corresponding decrease in walk rate. The obvious narrative is improved command. As we’ve seen several times this year, it looks like Clevinger cut the walks by being wild in the zone. That works in the minors. It’s fodder for major leaguers. In five big league appearances, Clevinger has struggled with walks and high quality contact. He’s a fly ball pitcher with a home run problem.

Also consider: Collin McHugh, Archie Bradley, Tyler Duffey, James Shields, Jarred Cosart, Rob Whalen

Hitters (power): In addition to possessing a fun name, Ji-Man Choi has non-trivial power, good plate discipline, and a good matchup versus Clevinger at Progressive Field. Remember, Cleveland’s park is quite good for left-handed power hitters.

Also consider: Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Ryan Rua, Derek Dietrich, Yunel Escobar, Tyler Naquin, Abraham Almonte, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Hitters (speed): My preseason pick for NL RoY, Socrates Brito, is back off the disabled list. Brito has done precisely nothing in 48 plate appearances, but he’s playing everyday. He has some speed and power. He’ll face Clay Buchholz in his return to the rotation.

Also consider: Denard Span, Angel Pagan, Tim Anderson, Jarrod Dyson, Michael Bourn

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Watch out for about a dozen storms…

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.