The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 9

by
April 9, 2016

Agenda

  1. Recommended Reading and Lineup Role
  2. Daily DFS
  3. SaberSim Observations
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Bassitt, Tomlin, Moss, Adams, Szczur
  5. Factor Grid

1. Recommended Reading and Lineup Role

Josh Shepardson penned a Stock Up column yesterday. Most of those five players are looking like viable mixed league plays due to their role in the lineup. If a player is batting second or cleanup, they usually don’t have to be that good to return some value. Danny Valencia is a guy I’ll consistently recommend who fits the bill. He’s a three category player because he bats cleanup. Josh has five more to consider.

2. Daily DFS – Ross, Bartolo

Yesterday’s Grind

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Early: The 1:00pm contest includes six games. The pitchers include Clayton Kershaw vs. maybe hurt Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, and Raisel Iglesias. FanDuel has quickly reacted to Iglesias’ price, bumping it to $8,000. That matchup against the Pirates and Cole is far from ideal.

The obvious bargain pick is Joe Ross. If you follow me closely, you probably know I’m not a Ross fan. I need more than a half season of success to believe in a broken-looking repertoire. Ross got a lot of value out of his slider, but the PITCHf/x numbers I reviewed made it look like a barely above average bender. The fastball is probably a minus. Despite my doubts and the likelihood of a short outing, I could see an easy win against Tom Koehler and the Marlins. Watch out for rain.

Stack Targets: Mike Pelfrey, CC Sabathia, Rick Porcello, Koehler, R.A. Dickey

Late: The remaining nine games are late. The top arm in the late slate is Zack Greinke. Between his awful Arizona debut and a matchup against the Cubs, he may prove to be unpopular. The Cubs matchup will be a double edged sword all season long. There’s potential for 12 strikeouts as part of an eight inning winning effort. Or he could get thumped for a few deep flies.

If you prefer pitchers you can afford, there are some options. The flashiest name is Carlos Martinez versus the Braves. Dig deeper and you’ll find court jester Bartolo Colon opposed by the Phillies and Vincent Velasquez. Colon could cruise through six innings against the Phillies, especially if Maikel Franco’s bruised elbow requires another day of rest. Velasquez could also provide a solid bargain outing. The Phillies bullpen is so terrible that none of their starters are worth picking.

Tommy Milone, a noted fly ball pitcher, may enjoy his time in Kansas City.

Stack Targets: Drew Pomeranz, Wily Peralta, Mike Wright, Jorge de la Rosa, Velasquez (bullpen), Doug Fister, Rich Hill, Kyle Hendricks

3. SaberSim Observations

I’m working a little early this morning since I have my own season opener to attend. SaberSim has yet to be posted.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Bassitt, Tomlin, Moss, Adams, Szczur

Pitchers to Start: Your last minute stream options are few and far between. Chris Bassitt is the most talented pick, but he’s opposed by Felix Hernandez. Bassitt’s still the guy to use with his solid repertoire and command.

Hellickson is underappreciated. He could survive a matchup against the Mets mid-tier offense. His bullpen will flop. And he’s opposite Matt Harvey.

Emergency picks include Chad Bettis, Martin Perez, Tyler Wilson, and Steve Wright. Astute readers will notice I prefer targeting them as exploits.

Also consider: Hellickson

Pitchers to Exploit: It seems I’m a rare Josh Tomlin fan. I have an extra appreciation for him because I play in a K/BB H2H where he’s a hero. No amount of K/BB makes Tomlin attractive at U.S. Cellular Field. He’s among the most homer prone pitchers in the league with a high fly ball and HR/FB ratio. The Sox should tee off.

Also consider: Wright, Wilson, Williams Perez, Ricky Nolasco, Perez, Jered Weaver, Tyson Ross, Bettis

Hitters (power): At least one of Matt Adams or Brandon Moss will start versus Williams Perez. I had nothing positive to say about Matt Wisler yesterday, and I have easy less respect for Perez. While Wisler at least has some upside if he breaks out a couple times, Perez is a Kyle Kendrick clone. We don’t often talk about Quad-A pitchers – Perez is one of them. There’s no upside here.

Also consider: Travis Shaw, Logan Morrison, C.J. Cron, Jon Jay, Yangervis Solarte, Ben Paulsen, Seth Smith, Brett Lawrie

Hitters (speed): With Kyle Schwarber bushwhacked, everybody assumes Jorge Soler is a starting outfielder. Not so fast. Soler has been godawful all spring. We in the fantasy community have a hard time moving on, but the Cubs clearly felt Soler was not a first division starter. They may see things a little more clearly.

And that’s why I’m not ready to rule out Matt Szczur taking on a substantial role. He’s the current hot hand with a history of 20 to 30 steals in the minors, decent plate discipline, and decent contact skills. He may not be the best waiver wire move against a righty – Shelby Miller. A start is far from guaranteed.

Also consider: Jimmy Rollins, Austin Jackson, Craig Gentry, Cory Spangenberg, Nori Aoki

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Mind the factor grid. There are rain and snow risks around the league plus plenty of very cold venues. Cold games adversely affect command pitchers and most hitters.


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