The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 8

Agenda

1. A Math Problem
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Wright, Gennett, Villar
5. Factor Grid

1. A Math Problem

Section one won’t always be about DFS or strategery. Sometimes we’ll have scouting reports, trivia, or other minutiae. Today I’d like to pose a math problem.

Let’s suppose we have a batter who only hits home runs. Otherwise, he strikes out. How often would he need to homer in order to provide positive value to his (real world) team? Please express the answer in the form of a rate, i.e. once every 10 plate appearances. You may assume that he plays in a perfectly neutral ballpark – not an extreme like Coors Field or AT&T Park.

Show your work. That’s the most important part.

In other news, do be on the lookout for analysis of FanGraphs new shift data.

2. Daily DFS – deGrom, Stroman, Tillman

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: There’s a wee little four game contest early. A pricey Jacob deGrom start against the Phillies might be too good to pass up. His velocity was down this spring, but I doubt that will lead to disaster versus a mediocre offense. Beware, he may need to leave mid-game to deliver a baby. Or something like that.

Alternatives include Danny Salazar at The Cell (yuck), Jordan Zimmermann and Luis Severino in cold cold Detroit, and a Jerad Eickhoff fade pick against deGrom. There’s a Coors game too, but you don’t want those pitchers.

Stack Targets: Colin Rea, Jordan Lyles, John Danks, Eickhoff

Late: With 10 games late, your range of options is significantly deeper. Starting with a bargain, a few people have asked me about Ross Stripling. I don’t see him as a viable DFS pickup. He barely averaged five innings per start at Double-A last year. I would expect the Dodgers to get him through four to five innings then turn to the bullpen.

I wrote a positive review of Joe Kelly yesterday, but I don’t think I’m taking him at the Rogers Centre. Josh Donaldson may return to the lineup tonight. On the other side of the matchup is Marcus Stroman. At just $8,100 on FanDuel, he’s going to be exceptionally popular.

The other popular pick is probably Chris Tillman. While I like his matchup against an aggressive Rays offense, there’s still too many red flags to use him at Camden Yards. A gem is possible. So is a disasterpiece. I expect him to be too commonly used to make up for the risk.

Pricier options include Chris Archer, Francisco Liriano, and Jaime Garcia.

Stack Targets: Eric Surkamp, Matt Wisler, Chase Anderson, A.J. Griffin, Matt Cain

3. SaberSim Observations

Surprise, surprise. deGrom is the top pitcher of the day. He’s projected for the most innings, strikeouts, and the best chance for a win. While deGrom is no shock, I didn’t expect to see Robbie Ray ranked sixth. I’m a big fan of Ray as a solid stream starter. Any matchup against the Cubs is scary. We saw them truly click for the first time yesterday. They’ll have their strikeout days too, but Ray is a damned risky pick against them.

SaberSim has always loved Wisler. I don’t get it. I don’t really understand why the Braves are giving him another chance. Well, I do. They have roughly one starting pitcher who belongs in an Opening Day rotation. Everybody else is a sixth starter or worse.

Again, it should come as no surprise to see Rockies and Padres cluttering the top of the SaberSim leaderboard. Coors Field has that effect. Ignore Jose Abreu’s number two ranking – the system still thinks Cody Anderson is starting. And it’s unfairly pessimistic about Anderson. SaberSim doesn’t know that Anderson’s stuff has improved, but there’s still no reason to think he’s worse than Wisler.

Astros and Blue Jays are the other high value stacks. It’s too bad they cost a boatload.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Wright, Gennett, Villar

Pitchers to Start: I thought Cody Anderson was useful last year so it follows that I’m excited to see him work in 2016. It’s not like he projects to be an ace or anything, but he is a guy who understands pitching. He was good at inducing soft contact last season. So long as he can mix that trait with his improved velocity, he should be a mixed league fixture. For now, he’s widely available. A season debut at U.S. Cellular Field is far from ideal.

Also consider: Vincent Velasquez, Kyle Hendricks

Pitchers to Exploit: We have a rich and plentiful list of exploits for tomorrow. I like Mike Wright in a general sense. He has some of the qualities of a guy with breakout potential. Make no mistake – he needs a breakout before he’s usable in any way. Until he proves otherwise, consider him to be a four inning starter. The Orioles don’t have a soft bullpen, but their middle relievers are beatable.

Also consider: Rick Porcello, R.A. Dickey, CC Sabathia, Mike Pelfrey, Tom Koehler, Doug Fister, Wily Peralta, Tommy Milone, Ian Kennedy, Drew Pomeranz, Jorge de la Rosa, Rich Hill

Hitters (power): With many bad pitchers come many hitter streamers. I’ve poopooed Scooter Gennett for most of the draft season. While listening to a Milwaukee broadcast, they spoke glowingly about his offseason training. He supposedly strong and in The Best Shape of His Life. We all know where to stick that particular tidbit, but it was encouraging to see him hit a homer off a tough lefty (Madison Bumgarner). Gennett has a long history of futility against southpaws. He bats second for Milwaukee.

Also consider: Franklin Gutierrez, Chris Coghlan, Jed Lowrie, Danny Valencia, Adam Lind, Seth Smith, Jake Lamb, Yangervis Solarte, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Moss, Jason Castro, Ramon Flores, Nolan Reimold, Logan Morrison, Kevin Kiermaier, Michael Taylor

Hitters (speed): Choices for speed are somewhat rare at the moment. Jonathan Villar doesn’t reach base enough to be a top of the order guy. He does have a tasty mix of power and speed. He could be one of those guys with good fantasy value and questionable real world application. He’ll probably hit at the bottom of the order against Doug Fister. I foresee another ugly season for the soft-tossing sinkerballer.

Also consider: Leonys Martin, Joey Rickard, Rajai Davis

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.