The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 7

Agenda

1. Targeting Bargain Pitchers
2. Daily DFS
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tillman, Feldman, Solarte, Rajai
4. Factor Grid

1. Targeting Bargain Pitchers

Cheap, talented pitchers can be a DFS godsend. These opportunities usually occur when an unestablished pitcher is first activated. Luis Severino was a steal for a long stretch last year. April is another good time to hunt breakouts. Pitchers who have actually improved over the offseason will still have 2015 prices.

When targeting bargain pitchers, I’m generally looking for three conditions to be true.

1. A high value, expensive stack opportunity
2. Some potential for a top pitching performance
3. Unpopularity

It doesn’t usually make sense to grab an inexpensive pitcher only to leave $2,000 on the table once you build out your optimum lineup. When you pick that $6,000 guy, it’s probably a good day to grab Blue Jays or a share of Mike Trout.

Even though we’re getting value from the pitching position, we still want it to be productive. Kendall Graveman is the cheapest pitcher today at $5,000. A good day for Graveman is something like six innings, three runs, and three strikeouts. Maybe there’s a little more upside than that, but it’s not carrying you very deep in a FanDuel Squeeze. By comparison, Adam Conley ($6,200) could actually outperform top priced Danny Salazar ($9,300).

Since countless rivals will be targeting the same Blue Jays stack and the same Trouts as you, it’s important for the bargain pitcher to have a low ownership rate (assuming you’re in a GPP). A portion of your roster should be unique to stand a chance at winning a deep tournament. The shallower the format, the less thought you need to put into popularity.

Please note: SaberSim values have yet to be posted. They’ll probably return tomorrow.

2. Daily DFS – Conley, Wood, Kelly, Rubby

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Of the nine games today, five fall into the afternoon contest. The Phillies-Reds contest is in no-man’s land (noon-thirty start).

This is a fun slate of pitchers. Danny Salazar is the big name, but I’ll be leaving him to others. Adam Conley is becoming a popular sleeper du jour. He offers plenty of upside with his command and additional velocity. I worry he’ll prove too popular at $6,200. As we just discussed, it’s sometimes smart to pass on a good bargain if it’s too easy to identify.

I’m focusing my attention on Alex Wood and Joe Kelly. Jeff Sullivan already welcomed back Wood. With a better arm angle and improved velocity, he could return to his 8.90 K/9 2014-2015. A sub-3.00 ERA is possible. The Giants have a deceptively good offense, but Wood should also benefit from playing at AT&T Park.

Kelly learned the value of using offspeed pitches late last season. He turned in a string of good outings by throwing more breaking balls. A plus fastball can only take you so far, major league hitters can connect with nearly any fastball. However, when a batter has to gear up for a 95 mph fastball, it makes all of your secondary stuff better. Throw it more and you get better results. Kelly didn’t do this by accident. He’s talked about it with the media on numerous occasions.

Stack Targets: Graveman, Mat Latos, Tanner Roark

Late: Only three games are late. You have the ultimate crap shoot with John Lackey, Derek Holland, Hector Santiago, and Rubby de la Rosa as the most selectable starters. My advice, pick your ideal lineup first then decide on the best fit starter. I’m tempted to pick Rubby for myself. He has the do or die matchup against the Cubs offense. He could tally upwards of 10 strikeouts in six innings, or he might get torched.

Stack Targets: Ubaldo Jimenez, Phil Hughes

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tillman, Feldman, Solarte, Rajai

Pitchers to Start: I’m a noted Chris Tillman doubter, but I like his matchup with the Rays tomorrow. They’re an aggressive club which could help him to get ahead in the count and induce weak contact on pitcher’s pitches. At least I hope that’s the case. By now, I expect major league teams to be working the edges against the Rays. No early count cookies. Before rain intervened, Tillman was doing well against the Twins last week – five strikeouts in just two innings.

Also consider: Cody Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: The Brewers have all kinds of young upside plays to field against Scott Feldman. Milwaukee has a deceptively powerful offense for a team in a rebuilding year. Feldman, a contact pitcher, could have trouble keeping the ball in the yard at homer friendly Miller Park.

Also consider: John Danks, Colin Rea, Jordan Lyles, Rick Porcello, Alfredo Simon, Matt Wisler,Chase Anderson, Robbie Ray, A.J. Griffin, Eric Surkamp

Hitters (power): Of course you want Yangervis Solarte at Coors field against Lyles. He’ll probably bat fifth and put four or five balls in play. This should be a high scoring affair. I wish Solarte was a Rockie.

Also consider: Mike Napoli, Ben Paulsen, John Jaso, Brandon Moss, Daniel Nava, Franklin Gutierrez, Chase Utley

Hitters (speed): Leadoff man Rajai Davis will have the platoon advantage against Danks. Unless a miracle has occurred, Danks is probably still an easily exploited pitcher. Davis has a long track record of success against lefties. He may not have the same blazing speed from his prime, but he’s still a regular stolen base threat.

Also consider: Jimmy Rollins, Cory Spangenberg, Jon Jay, Socrates Brito

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link

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