The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 5

Agenda

1. RotoGraphs Chat
2. Daily DFS – Wacha, Quintana, Lester, Bassitt, Bettis
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Nicasio, Norris, Lamb, Brito
5. Factor Grid

1. RotoGraphs Chat

I will be hosting a weekly RotoGraphs chat on Tuesdays at 1:45 ET. My colleague Paul Sporer will be doing the same thing, at the same time on Thursdays. I plan to chat on a wide range of topics including all of the usual fantasy nonsense, a few scouting points I noticed from yesterday, and some notable miscellany.

These chats go better if I’m not talking to myself in a vacuum, so please stop by to say hi. Please do ask a question of some kind too.

2. Daily DFS – Wacha, Quintana, Lester, Bassitt, Bettis

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The early contest includes three games, five aces, and Chris Young (the pitcher AND the hitter). The games in New York and Cleveland will be played at a freezing temperature. I’d look for my offense in Kansas City. Mets stacks should prove to be very popular.

Make sure the other two games even happen.

Late: Day three of the regular season includes a bunch of solid, unspectacular pitchers. At the top of the draft pool, you’ll find Jon Lester and Johnny Cueto. They’re both just outside what I’d consider to be an ace. The bottom of the pitching pool includes Aaron Sanchez and Martin Perez. Guys like Chris Bassitt and Chad Bettis could be among the best values despite limited upside. I don’t foresee either CB going more than six innings.

If I thought Bassitt had more innings in him, I’d be tempted to take the bargain. As it stands, I’ll probably be playing in the middle of the draft pool with one of Michael Wacha or Jose Quintana. I may opt to pony up for Lester even though I don’t think he’s worth the $2,000 premium over Wacha and Quintana. The position player landscape is strewn with massive bargains.

Yesterday, I said Jeremy Hellickson could throw six innings with six strikeouts. He did just that while allowing one unearned run on three hits. How’s that for a spot on prediction? I said the same about Raisel Iglesias. He threw six innings with seven strikeouts and two earned runs. As predicted, the bullpen blew the game, leaving both pitchers with a no decision.

Stack Targets: Perez, Sanchez, Andrew Heaney, Jimmy Nelson

3. SaberSim Observations

Cueto has the top pitcher projection on SaberSim today. It smells reasonable to me. The most important note is that very little separates Cueto’s projection from 11th best Heaney. You’ll find Bettis and Shelby Miller ranked fourth and fifth in the night contest. SaberSim likes the Rockies to win tonight but still thinks Miller will be good. I think the seven inning projection on Bettis is stretching it.

The projection system once again loves the Giants. Yesterday, I decided at the last minute to fade Giants by stacking Brewers. For the first inning, I thought it might work. Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, and Denard Span have the best ratings against Jimmy Nelson.

I thought about using a Mariners stack versus the Rangers and Perez. The Texas bullpen scared me away. If you do go Mariners, Nelson Cruz is the second ranked hitter in the Seattle stack and a must-add.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Nicasio, Norris, Lamb, Brito

Pitchers to Start: I wrote about J.A. Happ yesterday, but he’s been bumped to tomorrow. The same notes apply.

The hype train left Juan Nicasio behind ages ago, but he’s getting ready to climb back aboard. Nicasio made big gains in velocity as a reliever last year. As a starter this spring, he sliced through the competition with 24 strikeouts in 15 innings. While Nicasio won’t continue to record 14.4 K/9 this season, he has the potential to be solid.

An evaluation of his stuff via PITCHf/x leaves me skeptical. The fastball may be a plus or plus-plus offering. It’s paired with an average-at-best slider and…well that’s really it. The repertoire might not be enough to start. I don’t have PITCHf/x numbers from this spring. It’s possible he quietly added a new pitch.

Also consider: Happ, Anibal Sanchez, Aaron Nola, Andrew Cashner

Pitchers to Exploit: Bud Norris was a disaster last year. The biggest issue was his 1.63 HR/9. Leaving the AL East and Camden Yards behind should help his home run problem. Unfortunately, Norris has shown no signs over his six season career of improving his command. Without better location, he’ll never be more than a guy who’s occasionally great or awful. I do expect Norris to be better than last year, but a matchup against Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals isn’t a good place to start.

Also consider: Taylor Jungmann, Matt Moore, Wade Miley, Colby Lewis, Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Finnegan, Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Rodon

Hitters (power): Jake Lamb raced out to a fast start last season before an injury sidelined. He might be doing it again. He was hot all spring and popped a home run yesterday. His would-be replacement, Brandon Drury, is already on the roster. Lamb will have to rake to retain the starting job. Scouts consider Drury to be the better player.

Also consider: Chris Colabello, Steve Pearce, Adam Lind, Mark Reynolds, Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour, Darin Ruf, Tyler Goeddel, Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, John Jaso, Mark Canha, Danny Valencia

Hitters (speed): I was hoping to see more of Socrates Brito at the expense of Yasmany Tomas. Instead, Brito will initially split time with Chris Owings in center field. Brito, 23, has a useful mix of power and speed. There might be too much swing and miss in his bat, and he doesn’t have the plate discipline of a Dexter Fowler to make up for it. I expect him to be an aggressive hitter with 10 home runs and 15 steals over about 500 plate appearances. Stay away in OBP leagues.

Did you know Brito is a doctor?

Also consider: Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Guyer, Joey Rickard

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Yesterday’s rain is gone from the forecast but the games in New York and Cleveland will be brutally cold.

The Link.

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