The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 20

Agenda

1. Daily DFS
2. SaberSim Observations
3. The Daily Grind Invitational
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Karns, Danks, Park, Rollins
5. Factor Grid

1. Daily DFS – Ross, Colon

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Four games are early although the Mariners-Indians fall squarely into no-man’s land (6:10 ET start). Chris Sale is an easy start versus a scuffling Angels offense. The club is almost entirely dependent on Mike Trout’s bat. He hasn’t done much yet. The other five pitchers are pretty good too. Personally, I’m just going to ignore this time slot.

Late: We’re left with 11 in the late slate. Flawed aces Chris Archer, Madison Bumgarner, and Zack Greinke are atop the price list. Given the issues with each of them, I wouldn’t pony up. Cole Hamels may be the best “ace” even though fantasy folks look at him as a second or third tier guy.

I’m interested in the Jordan Zimmermann–Ian Kennedy matchup. It’s two guys who I thought could struggle this year. Both have looked good in the early going. Zimmermann draws the weaker lineup while Kennedy has the better strikeout stuff.

The Nationals have cut Joe Ross loose through his first two starts. I’m more surprised that his stuff even allowed him to reach the seventh inning. The Marlins don’t have a fearsome lineup. Ross could be in store for another goodie. As with last year, Ross has a below average performing sinker and an above average slider. He’ll throw a changeup. It’s also below average. I don’t understand how the parts add up to his results.

If you’re just looking at average points per appearance, Bartolo Colon’s relief spot on Opening Day skews the numbers. He’s already shutdown the Phillies for 36 FanDuel points over six innings. He didn’t earn the win in that one. He could replicate that outing with the double-u.

Stack Targets: Drew Pomeranz, Doug Fister, Tommy Milone, Rick Porcello, R.A. Dickey

2. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim also likes all the pitchers in the early time slot. I (and many others) worry that Bumgarner is hurt. SaberSim doesn’t know. Surprisingly, Pomeranz is the second highest ranked pitcher in the main contest. I’ll admit, I haven’t seen him pitch yet this year. Unless he’s improved dramatically, like very dramatically, he’s not a starting pitcher. I picked Ross, but SaberSim has Wei-Yin Chen defeating the Nats.

The best stacks are at Miller Park and Camden Yards. I don’t disagree. Maybe the Astros and Yankees are worth a look too per these figures.

3. The Daily Grind Invitational

Today’s invitational is a $2, 30-player contest on DraftKings. If you’re new to DraftKings, please use my referral link – we’ll both get a free entry into an unspecified contest. DK will also let you play in beginner games during your first 100 contests. I recommend taking full advantage of those.

Yesterday’s 20 owner affair filled quickly, so we’ll bump up the size today. I’ve talked to a FanDuel representative, but he didn’t sound hopeful about giving me access to custom contests with more than 20 slots. It was a firm “no” until I name dropped RotoGraphs and RotoWorld. I may run some day contests on FanDuel, but I now anticipate that we’ll mostly be using DraftKings.

Yesterday’s inaugural Grind deserves a recap. If DFS were like golf, I did the best. My stackless lineup with Alex Wood performed about as poorly as I’ve ever seen. That’s part of the risk with non-stacks. Who knew the Braves could beat the Dodgers with Williams Perez? The winner used Logan Verrett, a name I strongly considered. Prince Fielder, Jose Altuve, and Derek Norris did most of the grunt work. Congrats to 8mileallstars!

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Karns, Danks, Park, Rollins

Pitchers to Start: To be honest, I’m sitting out the stream picks tomorrow. I suppose if I had to pick one guy, it would be Nate Karns. The homer prone righty is up against one of the weaker offenses – at least on paper. There aren’t too many home run threats for him to dodge. Karns is capable to piling up a few strikeouts too, just don’t expect more than five innings of work.

Also consider: Cody Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: Jered Weaver is visiting John Danks at homer friendly U.S. Cellular Field. The Dank Weaver game promises to be all kinds of high scoring. Both the Angels and White Sox also have their share of stream-eligible hitters.

Also consider: Matt Wisler, Taylor Jungmann, Ricky Nolasco, Chris Tillman, Rich Hill, Mike Pelfrey, A.J. Griffin, James Shields

Hitters (power): I thought Byung-ho Park would need an adjustment period, but he’s looked mighty fine over the last week. In six games, he’s 7-for-22 with three home runs and two doubles. His strikeout rate is a very tolerable 16.7 percent during the streak. The strikeout problems are a real issue for Park, expect a 25 percent rate going forward. As is often the case, he wasn’t as bad as his slump, and he’s not as good as his hot streak. He’s against Jungmann at Miller Park tomorrow. Parks could park one at the Park.

Also consider: Brett Lawrie, John Jaso, Aaron Hicks, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Vogt, Joe Mauer, Scooter Gennett, Chase Utley, Adam Lind, Seth Smith

Hitters (speed): Jimmy Rollins is the type of hitter who’s liable to hit a couple infield flies against Weaver and miss out on all the high scoring fun. But he’s freely available, bats near the top of the lineup, and could do something useful too.

Also consider: Jimmy Rollins, Austin Jackson, Craig Gentry, Coco Crisp, Jonathan Villar, Michael Taylor

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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